Does JFK’s assassination butterfly effect coming decades

[mjwatts1983]

Kennedy was in Dallas that fateful day in 1963 as part of a swing through Texas to shore up support for his re-election bid. He only won the state by less than 47000 votes for a 51-49 win.

I do agree with how a living JFK would shape domestic politics at the end of a possible first term. A Civil Rights Bill was making its way through Congress at the time of his murder but was being stonewalled by the Dixiecrats. I can imagine LBJ cajoling senators to break the filibuster and vote for the bill even going as far as using his role as Senate President to get it passed (see House of Cards US Season 2 in how Frank Underwood broke a senate impasse)

As for the 1964 campaign, LBJ went scorched earth on Goldwater (see the Daisy Ad). I cannot see JFK approving such an ad. He would certainly get a boost on foreign policy when it came to handling the Cuban Missile Crisis and being calm would’ve led to a different outcome over the Gulf of Tonkin

The Black community - led by King - would be pushing for more issues to address their needs. Blacks were hesitant about supporting LBJ because he was a Southern D who played the “if you can convince the lowest white man...” card from time to time. Kennedy signing the Civil Rights Act of 1964 certainly would have locked in their support for the re-election with a but as in, you need to come through on addressing voting rights & employment

JFK does win a second term - not like LBJ - but somewhere in the middle between his 1960 close win and LBJ curbstomp... EVs 320s, PV 53-42.

[mjwatts1983]

So having won re-election in 1964, JFK has some political capitol to work with

Civil Rights
Voting rights are addressed. It’s passage goes about differently than how LBJ did it, but something gets passed. Same thing with Immigration Reform in abolishing the National Origins Formula that was used in a 1924 Immigration Act. I could see it come with emphasis of seeking political asylum given this is the Cold War

Health Care
Kennedy takes a huge gamble on passing health care reform. If you have a chance, go to the LBJ museum in Austin and look at the display on Medicare. Rs called it the same thing as what they called ObamaCare nearly 50 years later. I could see JFK incorporating it as part of a call to service. Again, I agree with that we see it as part of New Frontier packages with investments in education specifically STEM given the Space Race

Confronting The Soviet Union
This is the Cold War after all. JFK engages the Soviets with a series of discussions on how to avoid a repeat of Cuba

Vietnam
This is interesting because JFK in his inaugural said we will confront any foe and pay any price. The question is: at what point is the price too high.

Warfare is not about how many people you kill on the other side but when your opponent reaches a breaking point. The Brits reached theirs in the Revolution because what was the point of sending an army 3000 miles across the ocean as well as France and Spain getting involved.

The North won the Civil War in part due to a Naval blockade and Sherman going total war through Georgia

World War I was a stalemate until we provided more bodies to the pile as well as Germany succumbing to revolution that led to the Kaiser abdicating and the new government pushing for armistice

World War II in Europe ended because we and the Soviets were closing in on Berlin. Germany was conscripting the very young and too old to fight. In the Pacific, we dropped a couple of nuclear bombs on Japan as we were making plans to invade the home islands as well as the Soviets.

Kennedy was a student of history and of the moment and would have taken from the lessons of Korea as well as Cuba. In Korea, we pushed all the way north to China and then we were pushed almost off the Peninsula. After 3 years, it made sense at the time to just divide at 38N, be done with it, and not escalate any further.

In Cuba, it was about not letting the situation spiral out. The Bay of Pigs was a disaster. We almost had a nuclear war that certainly would have killed millions upon millions of people over a Caribbean island. Thank God cooler heads persevered in that situation.

Why we lost in Vietnam? We reached our political breaking point. We made it known that we were tired of hearing casualty reports on the news. It is believed that when Walter Cronkite delivered his report on Vietnam in 1968 that LBJ said if I lost him, I’ve lost the country.

Hippies and Counterculture
I see it continuing but taking a different direction. More like continuing the beat-nicks from the 1950s. The Vietnam War as well as Civil Rights for Blacks, Hispanics, women, and gays played a role in ramping it up into being very confrontational by the end of the decade and into the 1970s. Civil Rights - whatever it was addressing - was being acknowledged in part due to that we fought a war against one group who was grossly violating people’s basic freedoms but at the same time we had our own caste system that at times excluded people. It was hypocritical. We had segregated units in the military that was trying to free Europe. That also brings me to this

The Wild Cards
Do we still have the other political assassinations of the 1960s (Malcolm X, King, RFK)? How much a role JFK’s health play in his second term? Does he become a tragic figure like how Woodrow Wilson was incapacitated by a stroke for the back half of his second term? Would JFK face criticisms over the space program not getting close to the moon at the end of the decade especially after the Apollo 1 disaster? The Six-Year Curse: How bad are the 1966 midterms for Ds and what does it mean for a successor? Does LBJ run in 1968 (remember he wasn’t exactly in great health and would die at the start of Nixon’s second term)?