French election maps

[big bad fab]

Crépeau's map is a regional one+traditional RadSoc one (Tarn-et-Garonne, Lot, Eure-et-Loir among others).

Debré's one is partly a Royer's map and partly old traditional right map (Jura, Haute-Savoie, Aube). The gaullist influence is very light, only visible in Gironde, Dordogne, left departements at the time.

Garaud's one is difficult because of a nationally low score. But I would say that, apart from her regional "stronghold" in Poitou and Touraine, it's a nationalist map, i.e. a map similar to first FN maps of the 80s.

[big bad fab]

Crépeau's map is a regional one+traditional RadSoc one (Tarn-et-Garonne, Lot, Eure-et-Loir among others).

Corse is a bit weird, especially Haute-Corse.

Garaud's one is difficult because of a nationally low score. But I would say that, apart from her regional "stronghold" in Poitou and Touraine, it's a nationalist map, i.e. a map similar to first FN maps of the 80s.

You think that map is hard to analyze? I made a Renouvin map a while ago

Yeah... But Renouvin is a real real joke (not a real royalist), whereas Garaud is only a real joke... (I mean, by 1981; now she is a real real joke)
)

[big bad fab]

Did the PS ever release the results for the first round of the first secretary election (Royal v. Aubry v. Hamon)?

Unfortunately not. It's difficult to find something perfect in political science...

[big bad fab]

I'm going to try to find a map with constituency numbers for you and with zoomings on big cities (constituency boundaries are the same from 62 to 81, IIRC).

As for 1967, 1968 and so on, I'm afraid I've got only detailed datas on paper: if I can find some time, I may give you a "short" list with parties affiliation only. Please let me know which parliamentary elections are missing in your files.

[big bad fab]

Sneak preview of upcoming stuff. Concerns old elections.



More similar stuff for Lille and Bordeaux, and also starting on a 1967 map, nationwide.

I'll also work on a big ass map of the Grande Couronne and Petite Couronne, by 1962 constituency.

How do you make it for Grande and Petite Couronnes in 1962 ?
Remember it wasn't the same departements (and so, not the same constituencies).

Val d'Oise, Yvelines, Essonne, Val de Marne, Seine-Saint-Denis, Hauts-de-Seine and Paris were all created to replace Seine and Seine-et-Oise in 1967.

Ile-de-France maps I've sent you are OK from 1968 (sure) or 1967 (maybe) until 1981 included.

As for Corsica, your 1962 map is OK until 1973 included; national maps I've sent you are OK for 1978 and 1981.

Oddly enough, Salmon, who says on his website that he has slightly redrawn Gaudillère's maps which were "mistaken" on some points, doesn't take into account these huge map evolutions in Ile-de-France and Corsica....

I'll try to contact him and make him work on this subject...

[big bad fab]

Yeah, fine.

I didn't remember the PCF won all the constituencies in Gard...

The 1978 map is indeed interesting : almost a "classic" equilibrium between right and left.

[big bad fab]

The 1978 map is indeed interesting : almost a "classic" equilibrium between right and left.

Yeah, 1978 is the only one that was really a close election (there were other "close" elections, but 1978 is by far the closest).

And almost one of the few French legislative elections that was a surprise. The left was really expecting to win this one, they led all polls. But their voters didn't turn out.

Before the election, there was the famous Giscard speech at Verdun-sur-le-Doubs, which foresaw a "cohabitation": Giscard was OK and would have appointed a socialist PM (Rocard ? Mitterrand ? Mauroy ? I haven't read anything on whether he had already an idea).
This speech is referred to by public law and political sciences teachers and books, even today.

There were also famous images of Michel Rocard almost crying live on TV.

Nowadays, Rocard would have been applauded.

Then, Mitterrand said behind doors that that was one more evidence that Rocard is too weak to be the PS candidate.

[big bad fab]

Bon sang !

What a big, big work. Congratulations. We should appreciate it at its real value, which is great.

Where did you find the constituencies of Seine and Seine-et-Oise ?

Loir-et-Cher is striking in 1962 and 1967: didn't remember there was 2 SFIO in this rightist department.

58 is even more striking than 68 and 81...

A lot of the party affiliations in the '60's and early '70's were a bit obscure and vary from source to source, so I used knowledge and the Assemblée's records by parliamentary groups. So, errors and/or arguments definitely possible for these maps.

I'll try to find time to give you some more precise data on 73,78 and 81 on the affiliation on election day (daily work, works in progress in my house, children don't let me enough free time these days....).

[big bad fab]

In Tarn, old coal mines in the north and Toulouse far suburbs in the south west for the left.

[big bad fab]

If I have time one day, I may explain what were the different wings of socialism in France: very interesting, as the Socialist Party in France is not at all linked to trade unions.
There were intellectual debates between elected (or not) politicians, no practical solutions and processes.

As for 1919 (Alsace), I have no explanation, except maybe the rejection of war: pacifism was very pregnant after WWI and Jaurès was the more pacifist before the war.

For Deux-Sèvres (and Maine-et-Loire in 1914), maybe textile industries around Cholet and in towns in the northern part of the department.

[big bad fab]

Great, you've done it, this synthesis on the 4 main currents of French socialism.

The problem is that Allemane didn't prevail. And that, contrary to UK, Germany, Sweden, Norway, etc, that weren't the TU that created the party.
In France, all the social laws were adopted from the central state, by more "enlightened" republican and radical politicians, not under pressure from big TU or in a sort of consensus between TU and the power.

No TU + Guesde's influence explain many French socialism's weaknesses, up to now !

[big bad fab]

I know I posted all other Euro maps in the Euro thread, but sue me.



Especially amusing how constituency boundaries are important factors. In the West, de Villiers is the Eurosceptic standard bearer and has coalesced all anti-Euro votes on the right, more or less, with his outfits.

Aside from that, Essonne (NDA's "homestate") - Yerres in particular (36% of the vote there) and, amusingly, de Gaulle's Haute-Marne (lol) and 8% in Colombey (other lol). Other high performances in more indutrialized right-wing and traditional Gaullist departments out east and in the NW. Orne is a bit peculiar, though it had a crush on de Gaulle in the '60's.

Alsace ain't liking no Eurosceptic clowns (despite being Gaullist in the past), and the bourgeois in the 92 ain't liking them either.

LOLz for Haute-Marne and Colombey !

Dupont-Aignan may have gathered some of the former FN votes in the inner East and in the great Parisian Basin.
But that's tiny...

[big bad fab]

Fantastic !

[big bad fab]

I don't have data for the AD itself, but I'd be interested in making a map if anybody has it, though with the AD, it's probably a bit difficult.

Unfortunately, I've opened all my books...
But I keep it in mind !

[big bad fab]

The latter is, indeed, so typical.

[big bad fab]

You may even have spiltted Guyenne and Gascogne

But department boundaries aren't themselves relevant, of course: Eure-et-Loir is both Normandy and Beauce (Orléanais), Haute-Garonne is both Languedoc and Gascogne, Pas-de-Calais is both Boulonnais-Calaisis and Artois, Yonne is at the same time Ile-de-France, Champagne and Bourgogne, Oise and Aisne are both Picardie and Valois-Ile-de-France, Haute-Loire is both Languedoc and Auvergne, etc.

Vive l'Ancien Régime !

[big bad fab]

Michel Debré does not approve this message. Aaaaaaargh, speak FRENCH

Michel Debré also does not approve of two-round legislative elections.

That's why I haven't hated him entirely...

France with British first-past-the-vote would be so coooool !
(just for fun, though, as I think our current system is the best, from a pragmatic viewpoint and if we forget about the problem of gerrymandering)

[big bad fab]

I'm not here for long tonight so I haven't checked, but it would be fine to see the FN map for this election, in Picardie, Ardennes, Lorraine, to see if Tapie hadn't stolen some popular vote from the FN: that's not entirely impossible, as these are areas of "leftist" FN vote.

Just an idea that may be entirely wrong.

Anyway, I understand that this was an "old thing you always wanted to do": that's very interesting (like when I've asked you tomake Juquin 1988 and Rocard 1969: unique maps !).
Thanks Hash.

[big bad fab]

I'm not here for long tonight so I haven't checked, but it would be fine to see the FN map for this election, in Picardie, Ardennes, Lorraine, to see if Tapie hadn't stolen some popular vote from the FN: that's not entirely impossible, as these are areas of "leftist" FN vote.

Here thee goes:



You're probably kind of right, unsurprisingly. Though Somme's poor result is based more on the strength of CPNT there...

Mmmmh... I wouldn't be so sure in fact. Tapie may have stolen something, but not much.

Probably more an effect of "forgotten" people: Thiérache in Aisne, all the Ardennes, former combat zones in Meuse, Meurthe, Marne, etc, all areas really far away from Paris and the power.

Here, it's not really racism that works for the FN (as in Haut-Rhin, in Eure-et-Loir, in Oise, in the South-East or even in Loire), more the isolation.

So, Tapie's so-called rebellion against the "establishement", but without racism, may have play well here.

[big bad fab]

In 1994, the right was triumphant and I think many voters from the right felt free to express themselves in voting for de Villiers, more "rebellious" than... Balladur, the PM of the time, and anti-European, just 18 months after the BIG debate over Masstricht.

Apart from Villiers' personal influence in the West and the inner Centre-West, it's a quite traditional rightist map, minus pro-European Alsace and Pyrénées-Atlantiques (Bretagne is a bit high for him...) and some FN areas (North, South-East).

Pyrénées-Orientales are funny.

[big bad fab]

DLR has made maps of its Euro results by commune:

http://www.debout-la-republique.fr/IMG/pdf/DLR_regions1.pdf

http://www.debout-la-republique.fr/IMG/pdf/DLR_regions2.pdf

A note on the low DLR result in Bretagne, Pays-de-la-Loire and Poitou-Charentes (Ouest constituency): the DLR, due to lack of funds, couldn't print out their ballots in this constituency and required voters to print them out themselves.

Awesome even if a bit... geometrical... in their national map.
I mean, awesome to see a joke party making electoral maps !

Have you noticed that, quite often, "big" results occurred in communes which are close to departmental borders ?

The angry vote of forgotten people ?

[big bad fab]

Oh, I've just seen this !
Wonderful ! Thanks !

Indeed, Bouchardeau's map is very interesting and I'm pretty happy to have seen her as a sort of Europe-Ecologie (not Green...) candidate, 28 years before the real ones...

Of course, she couldn't be strong in the North and her Charente-Maritime and Gironde results are comparatively weak, BUT in 1981, there was Crépeau, also with a similar "green" image (whatever the reality behind it).

[big bad fab]

Map of the Green vote in IDF

Amazing to see the "bobo" effect in it !!!
Rambouillet and around was already "green"... Fontainebleau also...
How can some people still believe French Greens are here to protect little birds and trees

Roissy and its airport had no effect... and in popular zones (immediate noth of Paris, towards Poissy and Mantes-la-Jolie in Yvelines' north, in Val-de-Marne and extreme north of Essonne), Greens were weak.

But popular zones where newcomers from middle classes are migrating to (SW corner of Seine-saint-Denis, frontier area between Val-de-Marne and Hauts-de-Seine, Cergy,...) voted big for Greens.

Fascinating and depressing...
When I see their vote, I hate the French Greens !


BTW, Hash, I'm a bit late on my promise, but, at least, I've put the accurate books out of their shelves: so, I beg for a little more patience...

[big bad fab]

SFIO in 1945 looked already like a Mitterrandesque map of the 1970s...

PCF, on the contrary, is still a bit more "eastern" than in the 1960s-1990s.

And without Gaullist lists per se, the famous map of de Gaulle (occupied France + Massif Central) can't be seen here.

(I don't know if Hash intends to make 1951 and 1956, but it's rather interesting to see that, rather swiftly after WW2, all the great areas were present, with de Gaulle creating the only important change in 1958-1965).

[big bad fab]

Dinan is partly a banlieue of Rennes, now, sort of...

Around Loudéac ? Well, the population continues to diminish: so, the old who remain count for more and the right is on the rise in comparison with the beginning of the 20th century.

Around Paimpol, Lézardrieux and towards Guingamp, wasn't there some industries ? I don't remember but it could explain the past situation.