Obama Approval, border wall, deporting illegals and the 2016 election

[SirMuxALot]

So now we're going to spend four years hanging our hats on an exit poll that (probably) wildly missed on the top line?

Per Frank Luntz, PA exit poll had Hillary winning by +5.  Actual result: -1

That's the only state non-adjusted number I've seen.  Given what NYT forecast machine was showing for Hillary win probability before actual votes rolled in, I have to guess a huge number of states had similar error.

Yet we're supposed to believe the raw Obama approval rating of 54 was only off by 1 (adjusted to 53)?  Not buying that.  It's more likely Obama job approval among voters was somewhere in 48-51 range.

[SirMuxALot]

Does Gallup even care about voters any more, since they stopped polling elections?

That's a good point, forgot about the Gallup poll showing Obama at 56.  I have to assume they don't do any sort of likely voter screen any more, right?  (Did they ever for Pres. job approval?)  So their Presidential job approval will include a huge sample of non-voters.

So it's apples and oranges for us to compare Gallup job approval to any election poll or exit poll job approval.

[SirMuxALot]

The national exit poll was only off by about 4 points. An adjustment of 2 points to Obamas approval rating seems fine. Maybe it should be adjusted more but he is above 50%.

Hmm.  I'm skeptical of the implied supposition that the 4% of missed Trump voters would split about 50-50 on Obama job approval.  I think intuitively we might even suppose they'd be at least north of 80 for disapprove.

[SirMuxALot]

Trump has around 47% of the vote Obama JA 53/47, things make less sense in plurality victories.

Good point, that is within the realm of possibility.

The counter-intuitive implication of that is that 5% of voters approved of Obama, but chose to not vote for Hillary.  That's a fairly striking number.