Alabama Megathread: Bombshell allegations

[Greedo punched first]

I'm sure this has been asked before, but can Strange pull a Cochran and get Democrats to vote for him in the runoff?  I don't know what Alabama law says on runoffs.

Wait the article even quotes him as "Well I don't, you know..." ? He's was not taking a strong forceful stance against the idea, but not "I don't know" 

What???  Come on, shua.  You think it's reasonable for a politician to say "I don't know" if they're asked about whether homosexuals should be put to death?

The AL GOP changed the rules for runoffs. Only Republicans can vote in the runoff.

[Greedo punched first]

As bad as Strange is, he's far better than Moore. He's the only one who can defeat Moore. If Moore wins, Strange should run a write-in campaign like Murkowski, which is allowed in Alabama. Strange could win a three way race as a write-in, or possibly cause Jones to win.

[Greedo punched first]

If Roy Moore wins the GOP runoff, should Luther Strange run as a write-in?

[Greedo punched first]

A three way race would likely be competitive. Strange could possibly win. Strange would likely get support from the GOP establishment and conservative Trump Democrats.

[Greedo punched first]

Will Moore win the Trumpist vote in the runoff? Moore didn't even vote for Trump in the GOP primry like Strange did.

[Greedo punched first]

Socially conservative, economically moderate-to-liberal populists (who are probably who conservative Trump Democrats would be in Alabama) are more likely to vote for Moore than Strange probably.

No, because Moore is a deficit hawk who supported Ted Cruz in the primary, unlike Strange. Strange is socially conservative and less fiscally conservative than Moore. Strange is a better fit for Blue Dog Democrats than Moore.

[Greedo punched first]

Socially conservative, economically moderate-to-liberal populists (who are probably who conservative Trump Democrats would be in Alabama) are more likely to vote for Moore than Strange probably.

No, because Moore is a deficit hawk who supported Ted Cruz in the primary, unlike Strange. Strange is socially conservative and less fiscally conservative than Moore. Strange is a better fit for Blue Dog Democrats than Moore.

Yes but Moore has a more anti-establishment, populist style and more often than not, style matters much more to voters than actual policy positions.

I can't see Democrats voting for Moore, because Moore voted against Trump in the primary. Strange can use that as an attack campaign.

[Greedo punched first]

Who would win in a three way race?

[Greedo punched first]

Who would win in a three way race?

Most Likely Moore since he would take most of the Republican vote. Strange would make the race more competitive then it should be but in the end i would think Moore would come on top with most of the republican base minus the suburban voters, wealthier republicans, and other groups like these that could be receptive to voting for Strange.

Roy Moore: 44.7%
Doug Jones: 35.1%
Luther Strange: 18.3%

I think a three way race would be competitive. Strange wins wealthy Republicans, suburban Republicans, and Blue Dog Democrats. I think Moore and Strange would be in a very close race with Jones finishing third. I don't know who would win.

Roy Moore 34% and Luther Strange 34%
Doug Jones 32%

[Greedo punched first]

Who would win in a three way race?

Most Likely Moore since he would take most of the Republican vote. Strange would make the race more competitive then it should be but in the end i would think Moore would come on top with most of the republican base minus the suburban voters, wealthier republicans, and other groups like these that could be receptive to voting for Strange.

Roy Moore: 44.7%
Doug Jones: 35.1%
Luther Strange: 18.3%

I think a three way race would be competitive. Strange wins wealthy Republicans, suburban Republicans, and Blue Dog Democrats. I think Moore and Strange would be in a very close race with Jones finishing third. I don't know who would win.

Roy Moore 34% and Luther Strange 34%
Doug Jones 32%

I'd think Jones would at least place second due to a split republican vote.

Look at this.

If Jones Places second:

Roy Moore 35%
Doug Jones 33%
Luther Strange 32%

or

Luther Strange 35%
Doug Jones 33%
Roy Moore 32%

[Greedo punched first]

Strange has been doing better in the latest polls.

[Greedo punched first]

The problem for Moore is that while amping up the alt-right, neo-nazi, ultra-conservative sector might get him a narrow runoff victory, it also gives plenty of ammunition to Jones for the general. Jones meanwhile has no clear gaffes yet and doesn't have significant baggage.

Do you know what the alt-right is?  Alt-right people are largely atheist, pro-abortion (for eugenics reasons), and indifferent to liberal on issues of sexuality.  That doesn't sound like the Moore base at all.  The Moore base is probably more similar to the Cruz base, especially if Trump wasn't on the ballot.

Moore's base is more like Cruz. Blue Dog Democrats who oppose the ACA are more likely to vote for Strange because he is more economically moderate than Moore and more conservative than Jones.

[Greedo punched first]

David Duke endorses Roy Moore. Should Doug Jones' campaign try to tie Moore to David Duke's endorsement in order to boost Democratic turnout?

[Greedo punched first]

One thing's for sure: Jones can at least use this to obliterate what little African-American support Moore might have had up to this point.

And this could convince Siran Stacy and the Coalition of African-American Pastors to stop endorsing Moore.

[Greedo punched first]

After endorsing Strange, Duke warns Trump not to do anything like that again or Duke will stop supporting Trump.

[Greedo punched first]

After endorsing Strange, Duke warns Trump not to do anything like that again or Duke will stop supporting Trump.

The rest of the racists will vote Trump in 2020 regardless of what Duke does.

Not Alex Linder, Jeff Rense, Tom Metzger, or Robert Ransdell.

[Greedo punched first]

Libertarian Ron Bishop is running as a write-in candidate. Could he be a potential spoiler by siphoning a small number of votes from Moore?

[Greedo punched first]

A fifth candidate, Eulas Kirtdoll (I) (write-in), is in.

Every candidate so far:
Roy Moore (R)
Doug Jones (D)
Mack McBride (I)
Ron Bishop (L)
Eulas Kirtdoll (I)

[Greedo punched first]

It's unlikely, but Jones could win if enough anti-Moore Republicans 1) stay home, 2) vote for Jones, 3) vote for third party candidates.

Jane Raybould has a much better chance of defeating Deb Fischer than Jones has of defeating Moore.

[Greedo punched first]

Trump himself is a unique blend of issues (illegal immigration, anti-elitism, relatively political independence) that I don't think will be easily replicated by a local candidate or represented by "Trumpism".

Moore will probably end up winning here. No more polls since the 10+ Moore leads show there's probably not much commotion for Jones.

Trump is the most elitist anti-working class president in history. He won't do anything to save jobs. He will also try to privatize Medicare and Social Security, which he campaigned on opposing. He will also hurt the coal mining industry by cutting a program that helps coal miners.

[Greedo punched first]

John Cornyn has pulled his support from Moore:



This leaves just Cruz and Paul.

Watch Cruz stick with him until the end. I legitimately wouldn't be surprised if he's guilty of the same shenanigans as Moore.

In any case, I think the ball might finally be in Jones' court. The signature is a fatal blow.

If allegations about Cruz surface, O'Rourke wins.