2016 if Sanders ran independent

[morgankingsley]

I think Trump would win every state he lost by less than five percent (New Hampshire, Minnesota, Maine, Colorado, Nevada and Virginia) while Sanders could get about 10 percent of the vote and win Vermont but nothing else. What would you say?

[morgankingsley]

I'd add New Mexico to that mix.  I know he lost by more than 5% there, but Sanders could make enough of a dent there to make the difference, combined with Gary Johnson's votes.

That is a good point. I think Trump would pick that up. I know he lost Oregon by ten percent, but on the event of a landslide, that is a wild maybe.

Trump - 355 electoral votes
Hillary - 180 electoral votes
Sanders - 3 electoral votes.

Would there be any other states that anybody could see being given to Trump on this near landslide

[morgankingsley]

I would agree there. I think that outside of the states mentioned above and Oregon though, we would probably have the true electoral map. What would the final popular vote be in the end I think would be the next debate of it all? Either way, I think the next four years people will be very angry at Bernie for easily throwing away a easy to win election

[morgankingsley]

I get Hawaii, but what is the motivation for Washington

[morgankingsley]

Before or after the primary? If it was after there may have been some additional vote splitting (though not as drastic as some of these) but if it was before I doubt it would have any affect at all.

I felt my map was realistic enough

[morgankingsley]

Trump would be a huge beneficary of vote-splitting, but Sanders would be in a good position to claim more than just Vermont and Hawaii.

Also, if Sanders goes Indy, Clinton chooses a different running mate, which may or may not help her, depending on who she picks.

Donald Trump/Mike Pence 354 Electoral Votes 45% Popular Vote
Hillary Clinton/Elizabeth Warren 66 Electoral Votes 38% Popular Vote
Bernie Sanders/Tulsi Gabbard 21 Electoral Votes 16% Popular Vote
Tossup States 97 Electoral Votes, representing California, Washington, Colorado, New Jersey and Connecticut.

I think split ticket voting ultimately pulls Trump over the line in New Jersey, Connecticut and Colorado, and I concur that Sanders would win Washington. As for California, that battle would likely last for several days if not weeks in recounts between Clinton and Sanders (I just don't see California Republicans being able to tip the state even with a divided Democratic party), but I think Clinton prevails in recounts.

What would be your map of it

[morgankingsley]

I dont know, there were two to three brief one week or so periods where Trump was in the lead if I remember correctly, namely the conventions. If Trump was always in the lead, by 4+ point margins, Sanders would probably think that he might as well