Irish Elections - Referendum, Presidential, and General (polling or byelections)

[Tetro Kornbluth]

At the last general election left-wing parties won over 50% of the vote (one of only three or was it four? consitutiences where this occured). So this will be a left seat, the question is really whether it will be a government or opposition-socialist gain (at least that´s the vibes I get from politics.ie. Which is not, however, the most reliable of sources).

[Јas]

[YL]

So basically all our Irish members vote the same way? Cool.

And are clearly not remotely representative of the Irish electorate.

...except perhaps in their view of Dana.

The Guardian mentions a "poll" with Higgins on 41%, but it looks like they're talking about this, which looks pretty meaningless in terms of the actual election.

[Hash]

Random questions:

1. Why is Gay Mitchell such a crappy ass candidate and who are traditional FG voters going to because he sucks balls?
2. Why the hell is Gallagher doing so well all of a sudden?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Otherwise the impending Norris landslide is going to take the media by surprise.

Apart from the highly intelligent and ever-perceptive Patrick Barkham of the Guardian.

[Leftbehind]

RTE One will be broadcasting special election programmes at 1100 (0600 EDT), 1500 (1000 EDT) and 2030 (1530 EDT) with RTE News broadcasting the whole thing from start to finish on Friday as well. BBC Parliament do not appear to be simulcasting anything (but that might change as today goes on) so if you do not want to be tied to a computer and you live in the UK you can either a) have a aerial that points towards the Irish Republic or b) tune to channel 0160 on Sky for RTE Radio 1, 0164 for RTE 2FM or if you fancy your Gaelic skills 0166 for RTE R na G

Argh. Perennially disappointed with the Beeb's (non-existent) election coverage.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

RTE One will be broadcasting special election programmes at 1100 (0600 EDT), 1500 (1000 EDT) and 2030 (1530 EDT) with RTE News broadcasting the whole thing from start to finish on Friday as well. BBC Parliament do not appear to be simulcasting anything (but that might change as today goes on) so if you do not want to be tied to a computer and you live in the UK you can either a) have a aerial that points towards the Irish Republic or b) tune to channel 0160 on Sky for RTE Radio 1, 0164 for RTE 2FM or if you fancy your Gaelic skills 0166 for RTE R na G

Argh. Perennially disappointed with the Beeb's (non-existent) election coverage.

Which, given the number of Irish citizens here, is not exactly excusable...

[ObserverIE]

1 Higgins
2 Norris
3 McGuinness
4 Davis
5 Dana
6 Gallagher
7 Mitchell

Referendums: Spoiled vote/No

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

I'm not Irish but I'd put McGuinness #1 and Higgins/Norris 2/3

[patrick1]

It was my understanding that a large amount of Gallagher's support was coming from traditional FG voters.  I would hope that they have bailed after seeing how tied up in FF Gallagher actually was and go toward Higgins.

As an interloping American I would go

McGuinness
Michael D

Davis
Norris
Mitchell
Dana
Gallagher

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

[reposted from another place]

Unconfirmed alleged exit poll:
Sean Gallagher 32%
Michael D Higgins 27%
Martin McGuinness MP MLA 20%
Senator David Norris 11%
Gay Mitchell MEP 6%
Mary Davis 2%
Dana Rosemary Scallon 2%

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

[reposted from another place]

Unconfirmed alleged exit poll:
Sean Gallagher 32%
Michael D Higgins 27%
Martin McGuinness MP MLA 20%
Senator David Norris 11%
Gay Mitchell MEP 6%
Mary Davis 2%
Dana Rosemary Scallon 2%

So, with transfers, would this tend to sink Gallagher?

[Oakvale]

Probably, but I'm almost certain there's been no exit polling done, so...

[patrick1]

[reposted from another place]

Unconfirmed alleged exit poll:
Sean Gallagher 32%
Michael D Higgins 27%
Martin McGuinness MP MLA 20%
Senator David Norris 11%
Gay Mitchell MEP 6%
Mary Davis 2%
Dana Rosemary Scallon 2%

Hmm, yeah saw that quoted and see its from  irishcentral.com .... which is an Irish American website.  It doesnt say anything about where it comes from or who conducted etc.

There are a lot of things floating around so I would say take that with a grain of salt.

[ObserverIE]

[reposted from another place]

Unconfirmed alleged exit poll:
Sean Gallagher 32%
Michael D Higgins 27%
Martin McGuinness MP MLA 20%
Senator David Norris 11%
Gay Mitchell MEP 6%
Mary Davis 2%
Dana Rosemary Scallon 2%

So, with transfers, would this tend to sink Gallagher?

I think one of the effects of the last few days will be to polarise opinion about Gallagher - he won't get transfers that he might have gotten as a "genuine" independent.

It's not even so much the FF connections, as the fact that the connections are to the sleazy end of FF (soliciting party donations from someone you apparently know to be a convicted criminal and fuel-smuggler, looking for a personal €5K upfront from local amateur sports clubs to help them fill out national lottery grant applications).

[Јas]

Official Results Website

Counting has begun, and if super early indications are anything to go by Higgins may be a bit ahead of Gallagher on first preferences, and one would presume he'd hold or build on that through subsequent counts.

[patrick1]

I think Higgins will top first preference by a decent margin and run away with this. 

Interested to see what results will be on referendum- which are more important.

[patrick1]

I thought with Gallaghers decline that Mitchell and Norris would pick up some support but from vote leaking out they are both doing horribly.  Martin McGuinness #'s look to be pedestrian (17%?) but more than enough for 3rd.

[Јas]

Irish Times's Live Blog

On referenda (which won't be counted until after the Presidential votes), it looks like Judicial pay will pass; but Oireachtas Enquiries could fail.

I've not seen anything from Dublin West yet on the by-election.

[ObserverIE]

Dublin West seems to be in descending order:

Coppinger (Soc)
Nulty (Lab)
McGuinness (FF)
Loftus (FG)
Donnelly (SF)

[minionofmidas]

I'm not Irish but I'd put McGuinness #1 and Higgins/Norris 2/3

We non-Irish seem to be more nationalist than the Irish.

My fantasy ballot (not changed due to recent Gallagher shenanigans)

1) Higgins
2) McGuinness
3) Norris
4) Gallagher

[Хahar 🤔]

RTE One will be broadcasting special election programmes at 1100 (0600 EDT), 1500 (1000 EDT) and 2030 (1530 EDT) with RTE News broadcasting the whole thing from start to finish on Friday as well. BBC Parliament do not appear to be simulcasting anything (but that might change as today goes on) so if you do not want to be tied to a computer and you live in the UK you can either a) have a aerial that points towards the Irish Republic or b) tune to channel 0160 on Sky for RTE Radio 1, 0164 for RTE 2FM or if you fancy your Gaelic skills 0166 for RTE R na G

Argh. Perennially disappointed with the Beeb's (non-existent) election coverage.

Which, given the number of Irish citizens here, is not exactly excusable...

Do Irish citizens care about the Irish presidential election?

[Јas]

RTE One will be broadcasting special election programmes at 1100 (0600 EDT), 1500 (1000 EDT) and 2030 (1530 EDT) with RTE News broadcasting the whole thing from start to finish on Friday as well. BBC Parliament do not appear to be simulcasting anything (but that might change as today goes on) so if you do not want to be tied to a computer and you live in the UK you can either a) have a aerial that points towards the Irish Republic or b) tune to channel 0160 on Sky for RTE Radio 1, 0164 for RTE 2FM or if you fancy your Gaelic skills 0166 for RTE R na G

Argh. Perennially disappointed with the Beeb's (non-existent) election coverage.

Which, given the number of Irish citizens here, is not exactly excusable...

Do Irish citizens care about the Irish presidential election?

Yes. I think so. Maybe not as much as for other political offices, but it does I think exercise quite a few people who their national representative is. The best quanitative guide to your question though is probably turnout, which will probably be around 50%.

(The 2009 local/European elections had a turnout of 58%. This year's General was 70%.)

[patrick1]

68% of boxes now open in Dublin West. Tallies: Nulty Lab 25%, McGuinness FF 22%, Coppinger SOC 20%, Loftus FG 15%, Donnellly SF 8%, O Gorman GP 5%

[ObserverIE]

100% tally in Dublin West

Lab 24.3%
FF 21.7%
Soc 21.0%
FG 14.8%

Other figures not given.