Alabama - Obama is basically a dead cert do better than Kerry. (Anybody who isn't Al Sharpton should do better in 08 than Kerry did in 04.) Wether he can do as well as Gore remains to be seen. Certainly not all that very much better. Halfway mark between Gore and Kerry is under 60 for the Rs, hence why I'm feeling reasonably well about the 50 shade. Wouldn't be totally shocked if McCain broke 60 though.
Alaska - is not the state it used to be, politically. It's still safe, mind. 60-40, remember, is a 3-2 margin.
Arizona - nothing to say here.
Arkansas - has enough white evangelical democrats left that Obama *could* do considerably worse than Kerry. That's pretty rare outside the northeast (Kentucky would be another example).
California - safe.
Colorado - up in the air. We're supposed to break tossups here, aren't we?
Connecticut - McCain could play pretty well here. Could even take it, doubt it though.
Delaware - Ditto
DC - Time for that 90%!
Florida - don't see it, somehow. 2000 was something of a fluke thanks to a weird turnout pattern (not perhaps surprisingly, Florida had the greatest 2000-4 turnout increase in the nation.)
Georgia - too many suburbs. Too much suburban growth. Safe Rep.
Hawaii - should swing back from 04. Hard. And I mean
hard. This is the kind of place where local sondom should actually affect results.
Idaho - No idea if McCain breaks 60 here (or indeed anywhere), actually. Guess he will though.
Illinois - Can Obama do even better than Kerry in the Chicago burbs? Yes. Can he do even worse than Kerry in the southern part of the downstate? Probably not. 60 is unlikely but not quite impossible.
Indiana - Yeah well, goes without saying, really.
Iowa - feeling good about that one.
Kansas - Getting the Reps below 60 here should be
easy.
Kentucky - Obama is polling insanely badly here - a while ago according to the three poll average it was his weakest state in the nation, not sure about right now - , and based on that alone 60 is actually an option for McCain. It's not as if Bush missed by much. But... you know... all those polls were while Clinton rolled out a big primary win... Yeah, really, I just don't want to believe it.
Louisiana - nothing to say.
Maryland - no idea which way this state'll trend and could make a good argument either way, but the next color category is a long way away.
Massachusetts - doesn't take a large swing for McCain to get Obama below 60, and could certainly happen.
Michigan - New Jersey lite as far as early polling bias goes. (And New Jersey is Germany lite.)
Minnesota - safe.
Mississippi - nothing to say.
Missouri - could totally go either way, but you have to break tossups.
Montana - it'd be hilarious if the state actually flipped, but no.
Nevada - doesn't have to happen, of course.
New Hampshire - yeah, McCain should play very well here. Needn't be enough, but I guessed it will.
New Jersey - Probably 2004 territory, certainly not 2000 territory.
New Mexico - Close as usual... Obama might profit from Udall's coattails.
New York - these big swings towards Bush in Staten Island and Rockland and South Brooklyn? Yeah well, these people aren't coming back this year. Hence <60, though the Upstate should be worse for McCain than Bush.
NC - Probably quite closeish. Don't see it actually flipping, though.
ND - See Kansas, Montana. Somewhere in between there.
OH - Closer than last time.
OK - Seeing as Bush cracked 60 against Gore... I went with 60 again.
OR - Totally safe.
PA - not safe, but definitely a major uphill struggle for McCain.
RI - Right around the 60 line again. Perhaps.
Not really anything to say about the next few states.
VT - Obama should do better than Gore because a lot of old reps have died in between, worse than Kerry because Bush was a hilariously bad candidate for the state and McCain isn't.
VA - Being cautious here.
WA - Totally safe.
WV - Hopefully not as bad as 2004.
WI - Looking good.
WY - see ID.
ME - safe.
NE - not sure what to make of the polling there. Probably nothing, in which case McCain >60 is likely after all.
