The Delegate Fight: 2012

[Erc]

I sadly cannot do similar analysis for Colorado at the moment, as the Colorado GOP does not appear to provide precinct-level results, making the Denver environs (Adams/Arapahoe/Jefferson counties, specifically) complete guesswork.

For amusement value...the AP currently projects Santorum to win all 37 delegates out of Minnesota.  While this may end up being closer to the truth than my projection, at the very least one would expect Paul's win in CD 5 to screw up this projection.

[Erc]

Redoing the analysis under the assumption that if a candidate has a majority of supporters in a given precinct caucus, they get to elect all the delegates in that precinct caucus.  (Basically, using the logic at the precinct level [but not the BPOU level] that I had used at the CD level to give Santorum CD's 7 and 8 ).

Santorum wins a majority statewide, and in CD's 1, 6, 7, and 8, receiving all delegates from those jurisdictions.

Santorum is just short of a majority in CD 2, and splits the delegates 2 - 1 with Paul.

In CD's 3 and 4, Santorum, Paul, and Romney each win a delegate.

In CD 5, Paul is still short of a majority, and wins 2 delegates to Santorum's 1.

Grand Total:
Santorum - 30
Paul - 5
Romney - 2

As usual, this is approximate, but it should be closer to the truth than my earlier projection.  I am updating the main page accordingly.

I could do the same thing taking the intermediate-level (BPOU) winnowing into account as well, but I think it's rather pointless until we get the new CD maps (and we figure out whether the MN GOP is using them).

I could do the same thing in Iowa at some point if I find good precinct-level results, but it likely won't make a major difference outside of Dutch Reformed country.

[Erc]

Took me a while to find them.  Big old nasty set of files can be found here.  You need to crosscheck a few of them to make any sense of the files.

[Erc]

As noted elsewhere on this forum, AJ Spiker, not Bill Schickel, has replaced Matt Strawn as State Chairman in Iowa after winning a narrow vote.  He is a noted Paul supporter.

I believe this is the first State Chairman in any state to officially endorse a candidate (most seem to stay neutral).

County Conventions in Iowa take place on March 10th...we'll see if there's anything interesting to report out of them at the time.  I would not be surprised if Paul's estimated delegate numbers go up.

[Erc]

Very preliminary Maine delegate allocation:

Romney - 8
Paul - 8
Santorum - 5

Results by town (and thus by CD) are not yet available.

Due to the usual caucus winnowing, this is likely too favorable to Santorum.  Though note, unlike the other Iowa-style caucuses, there's only two stages, not 3...the town caucuses here elected delegates directly to the State Convention, to be held May 5-6.  That means, if there is reliable data on the delegates elected to the convention, we may be able to know quite a deal more about the final delegate allocation.  Unfortunately, such information is unlikely to be available from unbiased sources.

[Erc]

Thanks for the link!

Maine, Results (so far) by CD:

CD	Romney	Paul	Santorum	Gingrich	Other	Total
CD 1	1385	1139	527	162	27	3240
	42.7%	35.2%	16.3%	5.0%	0.8%
CD 2	805	857	462	187	34	2345
	34.3%	36.5%	19.7%	8.0%	1.4%
Total	2190	1996	989	349	61	5585
	39.2%	35.7%	17.7%	6.2%	1.1%

Note that Romney did quite well downstate.  He received majorities in many towns---enough so that in fact he should have a majority at the CD1 district caucus.  This effect also diminishes Santorum's support statewide enough that he bleeds an At-Large delegate to Romney.

Romney doesn't quite get a majority statewide, but it's possible he may do so eventually on rounding errors.

This entire analysis ignores stealth Paul effects, as usual; if someone can somehow get me confirmed State Convention delegate numbers, I will change these figures accordingly.

This also ignores the apportionment of delegates to each municipality; while I do not know the exact numbers, it is in general in proportion to the vote for Paul LePage in 2010.

Resultant delegate allocation:
Romney - 11
Paul - 7
Santorum - 3

[Erc]

Tennessee is a mess in general.  As best as I can understand it, on the ballot there are three separate votes.  A sample ballot from Sevier County can be found here; I assume other counties' procedures are almost identical.

The first is a straight-up Presidential Preference vote, where you can vote for any of the 9 candidates who qualified for the ballot (the usual 7 pre-Iowa candidates, plus Roemer and Johnson, but not including Cain), or for Uncommitted or a write-in.

The second is a vote for the 14 At-Large delegates; the names of the delegate candidates are listed, along with the candidate to which they are committed (or stating they are Uncommitted).  You vote for 14 of the listed candidates.  Only Romney has a full slate (in fact he has 16!); Paul has 11, Gingrich and Perry have 10, and Huntsman has 2.  There are 4 Uncommitted Delegates.

The third is a vote for the 3 delegates particular to your CD, in exactly the same manner as the At-Large candidates.  There are a total of 27 of these statewide.  Only Romney has a full slate.  Paul has 22, Gingrich has 20, Perry has 17, and Huntsman has 1.  There are 7 Uncommitted Delegates.

How do these three separate votes weigh in to the actual selection of delegates?  The TN GOP Rules, when discussing the allocation of delegates, always makes reference to the 'vote received by a Presidential candidate'---i.e the straight-up simple preference vote.  The number of delegates a candidate is entitled to is based on that preference vote, and has no relation to the votes for the delegates in particular.

It would seem, though it is not explicitly stated, that the vote for delegates is mainly used to see which of a candidate's slate of delegates is chosen (in the event the full slate is not selected, or if the slate is larger than the number of delegates to be selected), and then to choose Alternates after the regular delegates have been chosen.

In particular, it is not a "beauty-contest" primary in the manner of Pennsylvania or Illinois; the vote you cast for the presidential candidate of your choice does matter, and it does affect the delegate allocation.

This, of course, leaves the question of how the delegates are actually selected if a candidate with blank/incomplete slates is actually entitled to delegates.  While this is not explicitly stated in the GOP rules, I'd say the usual procedures for delegate vacancies cover it:

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TL;DR:

The Santorum campaign will, after the primary, choose delegates for the seats to which it is entitled.  Its failure to have delegates listed on the ballot is embarrassing but in no way impedes its efforts to win a majority of delegates at the convention.  Tennessee is a regular primary (albeit with some weird allocation rules), not a "beauty contest."

[Erc]

Washington: March 3

Overview
43 Delegates (1.88% of total)
Caucus/Convention
10 At-Large
30 by CD
3 RNC Members

Precinct Caucuses

Washington holds an Iowa-style primary; that is, the real point of the caucuses (as far as Tampa delegate allocation is concerned) is the election of precinct delegates to the County/Legislative District Caucuses.  The balloting for precinct delegates is in a runoff style; each person casts a number of votes equal to the number of delegate positions.  Any delegate candidate receiving a majority is elected; after the second ballot, the lowest-placing delegate candidate is eliminated.  This means that there will be a fair amount of recaucusing/tactical voting, even at this level, that will not be reflected in media reports.

A Presidential preference straw poll is also held at the caucuses; the final delegate allocation from Washington need not reflect the straw poll result at all, however.

County/LD Caucuses (March 17 - April 21)

Entitled to attend and vote are the delegates chosen at the precinct caucuses, plus a number of 'superdelegates' (precinct committee officers, plus all Republican officeholders residing in the jurisdiction).  These caucuses select delegates to the State Convention.

Rather uncharacteristically, the WSRP is very good about making public the exact allocation of State Convention delegates to each county (see Appendix D of this handy manual; the apportionment is based on the Republican vote in the most recent Presidential, Gubernatorial, and Attorney General races).

The election of State Convention delegates is done by a runoff system, similarly to those at the Precinct caucuses, but with a few changes to prevent a multitude of ballots.  After the first ballot, all delegate candidates placing below 10% are eliminated.  After the second ballot, all delegates placing below 20% are eliminated.  After the third ballot, the lowest candidates are eliminated until there are only twice the number of delegate candidates as unfilled slots.  The highest finishers on the fourth ballot are elected.

State Convention (May 31 - June 2)

There are 1500 normal delegates in attendance in total, plus 122 'superdelegates' (almost identical in style and function to the ones at Tampa, essentially 3 per county plus a few extras from King).  Obviously, the voting intentions of these 'superdelegates' will be impossible to feasibly determine and may prove to be a major source of uncertainty in a tightly contested race.

The convention as a whole chooses 10 delegates, and the State Convention delegates from each congressional district caucus separately to choose 3 delegates each (for a total of 30 by CD).  I do not know exactly how these are chosen, though it stands to reason that it may be a similar runoff system as in the preceding tiers.

The delegates chosen at the State Convention will be committed to their preferred candidate for the first ballot (unless they are explicitly selected as an 'uncommitted' delegate).

RNC Members

Kirby Wilbur
Jeff Kent
Fredi Simpson

As Washington does not select any delegates until the end of May, it is not penalized for going before Super Tuesday.

Preliminary Results (as of 3/4)

Romney - 34
Santorum - 6

Due to the extreme amount of tactical voting that will necessarily happen at the county/LD conventions due to the runoff system, it is hard to make a definitive delegate projection.  Unless the Paulistas make a concerted effort to derail Romney, however (or Gingrich/Santorum rally around Paul), it seems very likely that Romney wins a majority of delegates at the State Convention as a whole and in most CDs.  The above figure assumes Gingrich supporters break entirely for Santorum; this is too optimistic, but provides a reasonable lower bound for Romney.  Santorum picks up CD 5 (almost guaranteed if there's any net preference for Santorum) and CD 6.

Of course, this does not account for Stealth Paul; nor does it account for individual LD results, which may make Romney's dominance less convincing (and allow Paul to pick up a delegate or two somewhere).

[Erc]

Super Tuesday: Part I

It's Super Tuesday, the large primary and caucus extravaganza on March 6!  This is the official beginning of the non-IA/NH/SC/NV primary calendar, according to the RNC; there are no more penalties for any contests held on or after this date.  The delegate allocation must still be "proportional" for the next month of contests, however.

Remember that Alaska also votes on Super Tuesday.

Georgia

Overview
76 Delegates (3.32% of total)
Primary
34 At-Large, Proportional
42 by CD, Proportional

In each Congressional District (there are 14 in total), if a candidate receives a majority, they win all 3 delegates.  Otherwise, the top finisher receives 2 delegates and the second-place finisher 1 delegate.

At-Large, the 3 RNC Members are pledged to the statewide winner.  The remaining 31 are allocated proportionally among all candidates who meet a 20% threshold; rounding is done by largest remainder.

RNC Members

RNC Members are bound by the results of the primary.

Preliminary Results (as of 3/21)

Gingrich - 52
Romney - 21
Santorum - 3

This is the count from the GA GOP; the results from the state would imply a 54-19-3 split, instead, so this may be open to challenge unless the state results are wrong.

Idaho

Overview
32 Delegates (1.40% of total)
Caucus
32 At-Large, Proportional

Caucuses are held in each county, and delegates are assigned based on this vote; this is not an Iowa-style caucus by any measure.

What makes Idaho different from pretty much all (Republican) caucuses is the amount of official recaucusing that must take place; voting in each county continues through successive ballots until someone gets a majority or only two candidates remain (at which point a final ballot is taken).  Any candidates placing below 15%, plus the bottom remaining candidate are eliminated each round.

Each county is entitled to a fractional share of the delegates to Tampa (in a similar vein to Alaska, above).  If a candidate wins an outright majority on the first ballot (or any subsequent ballot with 3 or more candidates), they receive the entire share of that county's delegates.  In the event it comes to a two-candidate ballot, the county's share of delegates are split proportionally based on the final ballot.

After adding up the fractional shares of Tampa delegates entitled to each candidate from each county, if someone has a majority, they win all the delegates.  Otherwise, rounding is done to the nearest whole number.  In case of rounding errors, a delegate is added to (subtracted from) the top (bottom) finisher, as necessary.

RNC Members

RNC members are bound based on the results of the caucus vote.

Results (as of 3/7)

Romney won all 32 of Idaho's delegates.

[Erc]

Super Tuesday: Part II

Massachusetts

Overview
41 Delegates (1.79% of total)
Primary
38 At-Large, Proportional
3 RNC Members

38 delegates are allocated amongst candidates who meet a 15% threshold statewide, proportional to their share of the vote amongst all threshold-meeting candidates.  The Allocation Committee determines any rounding, as well as the exact CD breakdown (sadly, I do not get the voting strength of 10 men living here in Cambridge).

RNC Members
Bob Maginn - Romney
Ron Kaufman - Romney
Judy Dow

Kerry Healey (a Romney supporter) was recently elected as the National Committeewoman; however, it is unclear whether her term starts now or after the National Convention.

Results (as of 3/7)

Romney won all 38 delegates, as no other candidate broke 15%.

North Dakota
28 Delegates (1.22% of total)
Caucus/Convention
28 At-Large

Updated ND GOP Rules (different from The Green Papers!)

Caucuses are held in each Legislative District.  A secret ballot for Presidential Preference is taken (and reported to the media), and delegates to the State Convention are chosen.

The State Convention (March 30 - April 1) chooses the delegates to Tampa.  These delegates must caucus at some point either before or at Tampa, in order to discuss whether they want to distribute their votes in a manner proportional to the caucus vote.  The choice to do so is voluntary; for simplicity, I will assume for the purposes of my count that they choose to do so.

Selection of Delegates

The Committee on Permanent Organization (CPO) serves at the nominating committee for a slate of delegates to be voted on by the State Convention.  It has 10 members; two from each of North Dakota's 4 regions (selected by the appropriate Regional Chairman), plus the National Committeeman and Committeewoman (who also serve as superdelegates at the convention).

The CPO accepts applications for nominations before the convention.  Even without applying, any current Republican Senator/Governor/Congressman (i.e. Rep. Berg, Sen. Hoeven, and Gov. Dalrymple) are automatically placed on the slate.  Nominations may also be made from the floor of the convention, but only for those who applied to the CPO and did not make it onto the slate.  "In the event nominations are made from the floor, a nominee must receive a majority of the votes and finish in the top number needed for delegates to be elected."  (If anyone can decipher that, let me know).

RNC Members

If the delegation decides to voluntarily apportion itself proportionately to the caucus results, this includes the RNC members.  If not, they are listed below for reference.

Stan Stein
Curly Haugland
Sandy Boehler - Romney

Preliminary Results (as of 4/3)

According to the AP, these are the preferences of the 28 North Dakota delegates:

Romney - 13
Santorum - 8
Paul - 2
Gingrich - 1
Uncommitted - 4

A full list of the North Dakota delegation and their endorsements can be found here.  Also see Demconwatch.

If the delegation should assign itself proportionally:

Santorum - 11
Paul - 8
Romney - 7
Gingrich - 2

Ohio

Overview
66 Delegates (2.89% of total)
Primary
15 At-Large, Proportional
48 by CD, WTA
3 RNC Members

Ohio GOP Rules

There are two separate ballot questions, the first for Delegates-at-Large and the second for District Delegates.  In both cases, voters vote for their preferred candidate; the delegates themselves are not listed.

48 delegates are elected on the basis of the vote for "District Delegates;" the winner in a CD receives all 3 delegates.

15 delegates are elected on the basis of the vote for "Delegates-at-Large".  If someone wins a majority, they receive all 15 delegates; otherwise, delegates are awarded proportionally among all candidates meeting a 20% threshold (rounding to the nearest whole number, rounding error handling unknown).

The delegates for each candidate have been pre-approved by their respective campaign; however, they are not legally bound (only "morally bound") to vote for them at Tampa.  I will assume, unless any delegate states otherwise, that they are voting for the candidate whose campaign vetted and approved them.

Ballot Access
All candidates are on the ballot in Ohio; however, Santorum failed to qualify for access for the "District Delegates" question in CD's 6, 9, and 13, and will thus not have a shot at the 9 delegates from those CDs.  He will still be on the ballot for the "Delegates-at-Large" question in those CDs.  For a sample ballot from an affected area, see this sample ballot (pick e.g. Lakewood/01/A for a precinct where Santorum is not on the ballot for the "District Delegates" question).

RNC Members

Kevin DeWine
Robert Bennett
Jo Ann Davidson

Preliminary Results (as of 3/7)

Romney - 38
Santorum - 21
Unallocated - 4

Those 4 "Unallocated" delegates (1 in CD 3, 2 in CD 4, and 1 in CD 8 ) would be Santorum's, except he did not file complete delegate slates in those districts.  

[Erc]

Super Tuesday: Part III

Oklahoma

Overview
43 Delegates (1.88% of total)
Primary
25 At-Large, Proportional
15 by CD, Proportional
3 RNC Members

OK GOP Rules

25 delegates are elected At-Large.  If a candidate receives a statewide majority, they win all 25 delegates.  Otherwise, delegates are apportioned proportionally among all candidates who get at least 15%, rounded to the nearest whole number (rounding error handling unknown).

15 delegates are elected by CD, 3 each.  If a candidate receives a majority (or only 1 places above 15%), they win all 3 delegates.  If only two candidates place above 15%, 2 delegates are awarded to the winner, and 1 to the second-place finisher.  Otherwise, 1 delegate is awarded to each of the top 3 finishers.

RNC Members

Matt Pinnell
James Dunn
Carolyn McLarty

Results (as of 3/7)

Santorum - 14
Romney - 13
Gingrich - 13

Tennessee

Overview
58 Delegates (2.54% of total)
Primary
28 At-Large, Proportional
27 by CD, Proportional
3 RNC Members

TN GOP Rules
YouTube Clarification from Chris DeVaney

28 delegates are selected At-Large.  If any candidate receives a two-thirds majority (or is the only candidate to break 20%) statewide, they are allocated all 28 delegates.  Otherwise, allocate proportionally among all candidates who receive at least 20% of the vote.  Round all fractions up; remove delegates from the lowest threshold-meeting candidate as necessary to allocate exactly 28 delegates.

27 delegates are selected by CD.  If any candidate receives a two-thirds majority (or is the only candidate to break 20%), they receive all 3 delegates.  Otherwise, the winner gets 2 delegates an the second place finisher gets 1 delegate.

Ballot Access
Many candidates (everyone but Romney) have incomplete slates of delegates (Santorum has no delegates at all).  This has no effect on delegate allocation, as candidates so affected can provide delegate names later.  See discussion here, and the YouTube video posted above.

RNC Members

Chris DeVaney
Peggy Lambert
John Ryder

Preliminary Results (as of 4/3)

Santorum - 29
Romney - 17
Gingrich - 9

Virginia

Overview
49 Delegates (2.14% of total)
Primary
13 At-Large, Proportional
33 by CD, WTA
3 RNC Members

13 delegates are selected At-Large.  If a candidate receives a majority statewide, they receive all 13 delegates.  Otherwise, delegates are allocated proportionally among candidates winning at least 15% of the vote.  Round up all fractions; remove delegates from the lowest threshold-meeting candidate as necessary to allocate exactly 13 delegates.

33 delegates are selected by CD.  The winner in each CD receives all 3 delegates.

Ballot Access
Only Mitt Romney and Ron Paul made the ballot in Virginia.

RNC Members
Pat Mullins
Morton Blackwell
Kathy Terry

Results (as of 3/7)

Romney - 43
Paul - 3

Vermont

Overview
17 Delegates (0.74% of total)
Primary
3 At-Large, WTA
14 At-Large, Proportional

VT GOP Rules

The statewide winner wins 3 delegates.  The remaining 14 (including the RNC members) are given to the majority winner, if there is one, or apportioned among candidates meeting a 20% threshold if not.  Rounding details are unspecified.

RNC Members

Pat McDonald
George Schiavone - Romney
Susie Hudson - Romney

The RNC members are bound to the statewide winner, so their preferences are moot.

Results (as of 3/7)

Romney - 9
Paul - 4
Santorum - 4

[Erc]

A question, are these contests using the old or new CD maps?

Each state is entitled to 3 delegates per CD based on the 2010 census reapportionment.  Whether that means they actually use the new boundaries precisely or not is going to vary from state to state, depending on the progress of redistricting, whether it's a caucus or a primary, etc.

Some states are smart and provide for this uncertainty (e.g. Ohio has provisions to just use the old boundaries with 2 delegates a piece, with the rest WTA, if they lost representatives and redistricting wasn't finished yet---ultimately unnecessary, as they have finished redistricting), while others haven't.  In less prepared states, this may be up for a challenge at the credentials committee if it should make a difference.

[Erc]

Idaho

If a candidate gets 50%+ of the statewide delegates they get all the national convention delegates.

http://idgop.org/party-rules-on-pres-caucus/

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Since all but the top two candidates in each county are eliminated it would seem very likely that the statewide winner would get all the delegates.

Good catch.  Whether that outcome is likely really depends on the manner of the tactical voting that occurs during the recaucusing, and whether it differs wildly from county to county.

[Erc]

A question, are these contests using the old or new CD maps?

Each state is entitled to 3 delegates per CD based on the 2010 census reapportionment.  Whether that means they actually use the new boundaries precisely or not is going to vary from state to state, depending on the progress of redistricting, whether it's a caucus or a primary, etc.

Some states are smart and provide for this uncertainty (e.g. Ohio has provisions to just use the old boundaries with 2 delegates a piece, with the rest WTA, if they lost representatives and redistricting wasn't finished yet---ultimately unnecessary, as they have finished redistricting), while others haven't.  In less prepared states, this may be up for a challenge at the credentials committee if it should make a difference.

New York is using the old districts, with 2 Delegates WTA per old CD and the rest at large.

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/

Republicans really do have a screwy system of picking a president, you get the same amount of delegates for winning Charlie Rangell's district as for winning the most republican district in the state.

As a Republican in a district in which we can't even get a House candidate on the ballot most of the time, I wish the same were true in Massachusetts

[Erc]

I'm curious in a map of these four "regions" in North Dakota. I'm going to guess that it's the Fargo area, the rest of eastern North Dakota/Red River Valley, the Bismarck/Mandan metro and the areas in the southwest where essentially no one lives and then the rest of the state (essentially Minot, a Reservation and some oil drilling places)?

Basically spot on.  For the gorey details, you can check out the ND GOP rules (Article III, Section 4) and the 2000 census legislative district maps.

Williston has a legislative district all its own?  They really do not need that many people in the state legislature...

[Erc]

Williston's an important town in North Dakota. Everyone there knows where it is and did even before the oil boom. Basically in ND if a town is big enough to have 24-hour services, it'll have its own legislative district. No worse than a lot of the "county legislatures" in New York, I live in a county with over a million people and a 7-member county commission, they have places with around 20 districts for not even half that people...

I know, Williston is very important!  It even has an international airport! 

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The Michigan GOP seems to have decided on a delegate allocation plan if the sanctions stay in place, according to Frontloading.  Basically, it's going to be as I expected--2 per CD, for a total of 28, plus 2 at-Large.  Whether those 2 at-Large are going to be "proportional" or WTA seems to still be up in the air.

[Erc]

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So basically if a district splits 60%-20%-20%, its delegates are split evenly. What a dumb system.

Actually, no...

You are absolutely right, I misread the rules.  CD delegates in TN are only split 3 ways if no one meets the 20% threshold (mathematically impossible now).

Original post (for both TN and OK) has been changed accordingly.

[Erc]

Minnesota has released its new Congressional District maps, and it does indeed appear that the MN GOP will be using the new maps throughout their process (precinct delegates will be informed as to which BPOU convention they will be attending).

When practicable, I will redo the precinct-level analysis given the new lines.  Don't hold your breath though.

[Erc]

New Hampshire Update

The three candidates winning delegates in New Hampshire (Romney, Paul, and Huntsman) have chosen which of their delegate candidates will be going to Tampa.

There is one complication, however; these were chosen under the assumption that the sanctions will be lifted.  That is, Romney chose 12 delegates (and alternates), Paul 5, and Huntsman 3, rather than the 7, 3, and 2, respectively, that they would be entitled to under sanctions.  We do not know which of these will be seated at Tampa should the sanctions be enforced (they are all listed alphabeticaly).

Regardless, we do now know the names of the 3 Huntsman delegates (2 of which will go to Tampa if sanctions are enforced).  They are:

Paul J. Collins, Jr.
Renee Plummer
Sarah Stewart

Of course, these will presumably vote for Romney, but we cannot be sure, so they stay Uncommitted until we hear otherwise.  Note that Sarah Stewart was formerly with the Pawlenty campaign before joining the Huntsman camp.

[Erc]

Minnesota has released its new Congressional District maps, and it does indeed appear that the MN GOP will be using the new maps throughout their process (precinct delegates will be informed as to which BPOU convention they will be attending).

When practicable, I will redo the precinct-level analysis given the new lines.  Don't hold your breath though.

Not all that much change with the new lines (I won't bother posting the full numbers unless there's a demand).

Romney improves his numbers enough in CDs 2 and 5 that he is (barely) able to eke out two additional delegates, the former at the expense of Santorum, the latter at the expense of Paul.  He so marginally has a claim on these delegates that I assume that the BPOU round of winnowing will eliminate him from contention.  I am not so crazy as to do a full BPOU analysis on the new lines, so we'll just have to stick with these numbers.

Resulting delegate count:

Santorum - 29
Paul - 4
Romney - 4

[Erc]

March 10

In addition to the events listed below, Iowa also holds its County Conventions on March 10, which elect delegates to the State (and District) Conventions.  If there's any systematic reporting of these results (doubtful, but we can hope), this may give us our first indications of the current state of the race in Iowa---what's happened to Perry's supporters, how much of a "stealth Paul" effect is there, etc.

Kansas

Overview
40 Delegates (1.75% of total)
Caucus
12 by CD, WTA
28 At-Large, Proportional (20%)

KS Caucus Rules

Kansas' caucus, like Nevada but unlike Iowa, actually binds its delegates on the results of the caucuses.  There are later rounds of conventions that choose the delegates themselves, but the delegates themselves are bound based on the March 10 vote.

12 delegates are allocated by CD; in each of Kansas' 4 Congressional Districts, the winner receives 3 delegates.  Kansas does not appear to have finished its redistricting yet, which could complicate matters.  Kansas did not gain or lose CDs with the census, so using the old borders is always a possibility.

25 delegates are allocated proportionally statewide, with a 20% threshold.  If only one candidate meets the threshold, there is no threshold.  Starting with the winner, each candidate receives a share of the 25 delegates commensurate with their share of the vote amongst threshold-reaching candidates, fractions rounded up.  Repeat for the next-highest placing candidate, and so forth, until all 25 delegates are assigned.

The 3 RNC members are pledged to the statewide winner.

RNC Members

The RNC members are pledged based on the statewide results, and thus do not act like superdelegates.

Preliminary Results (as of 3/10)

Santorum - 33
Romney - 7

Guam

Overview
9 Delegates (0.39% of total)
Convention
6 At-Large
3 RNC Members

A single territorial caucus is held.  Guam's six delegates are chosen in such a manner as to 'best reflect the presidential preference of the convention participants."

The convention convenes at 9 AM local time (that is, 6 PM Friday EST), so we may even get results before we go to bed Friday.

RNC members

Jesus "Jess" Torres - Romney
Peter Ada - Romney
Donna Jones - Romney

Demconwatch believes new RNC members will be elected at the March 10 convention.  However, the national RNC rules do state that RNC members terms last from the end of a national convention to the next, so I will assume that these three will be at Tampa unless the national GOP says otherwise.

Results (as of 3/10)

Romney won all 6 delegates, and the RNC members pledged themselves to him as well.

Northern Marianas

Overview
9 Delegates (0.39% of total)
Convention
6 At-Large
3 RNC Members

A vote is held to elect 6 delegates to the National Convention.

RNC Members

Gov. Benigno Fitial - Romney
Bo Palacios - Romney
Mary Lou S Ada - Romney (Demconwatch and the Saipan Tribune list Viola Alepuyo instead, but I will trust the national GOP over local news here)

Preliminary Results (as of 3/10)

With Romney winning 87% of the vote here, I think it's safe to assume that the 6 delegates elected were Romney supporters.  Officially, the delegates elected are unbound.

Virgin Islands

Overview
9 Delegates (0.39% of total)
Caucus
6 At-Large
3 RNC Members

USVI Caucus Rules
Sample Ballot (thanks Minnesota Mike!)

Caucuses are held on St. Croix, St. Thomas, and St. John, between noon and 6 pm local time (11 AM and 5 PM EST).  Participants vote for the delegates directly; each participant may vote for 6 delegate candidates, and the top 6 vote-getters will go to Tampa.  Delegate candidates must have filed by February 10 (I cannot find a list of delegates so filed, though), and their presidential preference is listed next to them on the ballot.  Delegates so elected will be bound to their candidate on the first ballot.

This system makes it quite likely that a single candidate will win all 6 delegates.

RNC Members

Herbert Schoenbohm - Romney
Holland L Redfield, II - Romney
Lilliana Belardo De O'Neal - Romney

Results (as of 3/11)

Romney - 3
Uncommitted - 2
Paul - 1

The two Uncommitted delegates are Warren Bruce Cole, who has since declared for Romney, and Gwendolyn Brady, who is still uncommitted.

[Erc]

Wyoming:  February 9 - February 29

Overview
29 Delegates (1.27% of total)
Caucus/Convention
12 by County
14 At-Large
3 RNC Members

WY GOP Bylaws

Precinct Caucuses

The Wyoming Precinct Caucuses were held between February 9 and February 29, on different dates in different parts of the state.  A straw poll was held, and delegates to the County Conventions were also elected.  Each precinct's representation at its County Convention is proportional to the share of the vote for Cynthia Lummis (WY-AL) in 2010, though each precinct is entitled to a minimum of 2 delegates.

County Conventions

The County Conventions were held March 6-10.  In addition to the delegates chosen at the Precinct Caucuses, the members of the County Central Committee were also automatically delegates.

Of Wyoming's 23 counties, 11 selected a delegate to Tampa, 11 selected a corresponding alternate to Tampa, and Laramie County selected one of each.  The counties that selected delegates:

Natrona, Carbon, Lincoln, Sublette Platte, Park, Washakie, Big Horn, Johnson, Weston, Niobrara, Platte, and of course Laramie.

These delegates are officially unbound, but are required to inform the county convention ahead of the vote which candidate they would vote for at Tampa.

The County Conventions also elect delegates to the State Convention.  Each county is entitled to a number of delegates in proportion to their vote for Cynthia Lummis (WY-AL) in 2010.  The exact number of delegates per county can be found here.

Slates of nominations (for delegates to Tampa or for delegates to the State Convention) are drawn up by a Nominating Committee, whose members are chosen by the County Chairman.  However, additional nominations may be submitted from the floor.

State Convention

The State Convention, held April 12-14 in Cheyenne, chooses the remaining 14 delegates.  A Nominating Committee, consisting of two delegates from each county, chooses a slate of 14 delegates (and alternates).  This slate is presented to the convention as a whole.  Additional delegate nominees may be presented from the floor.  After a secret ballot, "the Delegates-at-large shall be elected by the equivalent number of nominees receiving the most votes."

(If anyone can figure out exactly what that last line means, I'd be much obliged)

These delegates are officially unbound, but must inform the convention which candidate they intend to vote for at Tampa.

RNC Members

Tammy Hooper
Greg Schaefer - Romney
Jan Larimer

Preliminary Results (as of 3/11)

County Conventions:

Romney - 8
Santorum - 2
Paul - 1
Uncommitted - 1

Projected State Convention:

Romney - 14

Based on the results of the County Conventions, it appears that Romney will have a majority at the State Convention and can elect an entirely-Romney slate.  This is based off of the votes for delegates and alternates at each of the County Conventions; if there was a significant difference between that vote and the vote for slates of delegates to the State Convention, Romney may not attain that majority.

[Erc]

Some clarification of the Tennessee GOP process from the GOP Chairman in the state, Chris Devaney, is provided in this YouTube video.

In particular, it is made patently clear that Santorum is still very much eligible for delegates despite not having any delegate candidates on the ballot.

It also seems that the 14 delegates appointed by the Executive committee are apportioned based on the primary results as well (basically, they get to pick who goes but the campaign signs off).

[Erc]

"Proportionality" or Gingrich's Hope

As the race increasingly looks like a two-man contest between Romney and Santorum, how much hope is there for third (or fourth) place candidates to pick up delegates and play spoiler?

Many of the same arguments could apply to Paul, but he has a chance of snatching victory from defeat in Iowa-style caucuses, can occasionally take second place in caucus states (e.g. MN/ME), and is going to stay in the race regardless.

The following are states that have some possibility of awarding proportional delegates to Gingrich.  "XX% proportional" means XX% of the delegates (not including superdelegates) are awarded proportionally.  Some states cease being proportional if a candidate wins a majority (or supermajority) of the vote.

-- Up to Super Tuesday --

Washington - Iowa-style caucus.
Alaska - 100% proportional, no cutoff.
Georgia - Gingrich should do well here, regardless.
Massachusetts - 100% proportional, 15% cutoff
North Dakota - Iowa-style caucus OR 100% proportional, no cutoff (delegates' choice)
Ohio - 24% proportional, 20% cutoff
Oklahoma - 63% proportional, 15% cutoff
Tennessee - 51% proportional, 20% cutoff
Vermont - 79% proportional, 20% cutoff

-- March, After Super Tuesday --

Kansas - 63% proportional, 20% cutoff
Alabama - 55% proportional, 20% cutoff
Hawaii - 65% proportional, no cutoff
Mississippi - 100% proportional by jurisdiction, 15% cutoff
Missouri - Iowa-style caucus
Puerto Rico - 100% proportional, no cutoff
Louisiana - 47% proportional, 25% cutoff.  42% Iowa-style caucus.

-- April --

Connecticut - 40% proportional, 20% cutoff
Rhode Island - 100% proportional, 15% cutoff
New York - 37% proportional, 20% cutoff

-- May --

North Carolina - 100% proportional, no cutoff
Oregon - 100% proportional, no cutoff
Arkansas - 64% proportional, 15% cutoff
Kentucky - 57% proportional, 15% cutoff
Texas - 100% proportional, no cutoff.

-- June --

New Mexico - 100% proportional, 15% cutoff
South Dakota - 100% proportional, 20% cutoff

Gingrich, assuming he remains in 3rd or worse throughout, has no chance of picking up delegates in Arizona, Michigan, Idaho, Virginia, USVI, Illinois, DC, Maryland, Wisconsin, Delaware, Pennsylvania, Indiana, California, New Jersey, and Utah.  Not listed here are states/territories that just hold conventions (Wyoming, Montana, Guam, Northern Marianas, American Samoa).  West Virginia's process is still completely unknown.


Obviously, Gingrich is sticking it out until Super Tuesday.  Afterwards, the road forwards is pretty tough for him, due to the cutoffs.  Meeting 15% or 20% cutoffs may be possible in Alabama and Mississippi, and he may snag a couple delegates from Puerto Rico if no one wins a majority there...but other than that it's a long drought until May 8, when North Carolina gives him his next shot at delegates.

All in all, after Super Tuesday (or after AL/MS vote on March 13), his staying in the race is far more likely to give Romney a leg up in WTA states than it is to increase the chance of a brokered convention with him as a kingmaker.  Of course, he's probably hoping for yet another shot at becoming the Anti-Romney, but this becomes extremely remote (and only helps Romney's chances) after Super Tuesday.

[Erc]

There's a lot of room for some fine subtleties.  A candidate can 'suspend' their campaign---this is is a signal to everyone that they're done, but they can keep fundraising to pay for campaign debts, and presumably their delegates still remain bound to them.  An actual 'withdrawal' from the race would generally unbind delegates, or a candidate who has suspended their campaign can also explicitly 'release' their delegates from being bound.

Often, if the candidate is not even placed into nomination, the delegates are released.  In order to be officially presented for nomination, the candidate must demonstrate the support of a plurality of at least 5 state delegations.

These rules tend to vary considerably from state to state, and it is unclear how such rules would be enforced.  If it should look that in a couple of months we are heading towards a deadlocked convention, I'll look at them in more detail.