Recent Posts

Show posts from buddies only

It’s that time of the month again…

Harvard/Harris

🟥 Trump 49% (+6)
🟦 Biden 43%

With leans
🟥 Trump 53% (+6)
🟦 Biden 47%
—
🟥 Trump 45% (+5)
🟦 Biden 40%
🟨 RFK Jr 14%

https://harvardharrispoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/HHP_May2024_KeyResults.pdf

Trump is just benefits from being the OUTPARTY just like Ds were in 2019, and indictments don't matter without convictions that's what it's coming down to.

If people arent being employed how much honestly can he be

A bit better, but still very vulnerable. He'd very easily be a boogeyman for the right and I'm not sure how he'd navigate some of the culture war issues, but even though he's older than Biden, he looks and speaks more energetically, so the age issue wouldn't be hurting him nearly as much, particularly with younger people. Whether or not he could get even a tiny amount of his agenda through Congress, particularly if Democrats proved to be a thorn in his side, is also a good quesiton.

seems about right. In the end it could be Trump 54% Biden 40% Others 6%.

among all Battlegrounds and ex Battleground states, Florida one of the states I’m quite sure Trump would win in double digits. Even though somehow Trump support would collapse considerably between now and election day, he would still win Florida comfortably. Biden and the Democratic brand is just to unpopular here.

Palm Beach might only be a 1-4% Biden win this time around. Jews and non-Mexican Hispanics are groups he is losing ground with and plenty located here.

I wonder if Trump will win Dade County 55-42 or something like that.

seems about right, but probably high single digits like 9%. The way I see it now, Biden could only win Alachua, Gadsden, Leon, Osceola, Orange, Broward and Palm Beach counties at this point.

I live in Palm Beach county, while I don’t see Trump winning this county yet, I’m quite sure there would be a considerable shift to the GOP. The county commission just flipped to 4R3D last 2022 elections, before that it was 6D1R!

Even Jared Moskowitz lost the Palm Beach county portion of Florida 23rd last elections.

How do most people you know plan to vote?

I don’t usually ask people for their political preferences, I find that coming in too strong and meddlesome. But in general, on my observation, they absolutely hate both candidates and they would’ve preferred somebody else winning in their respective primaries. The hispanics I know though in my area doesn’t like Biden.

It's hard to find ppl who unironically like Biden.

Except for on this forum.

Lol the people that votes R are rich not poor people c'mon

Did you ever politically/ mentally mature past the year 2006?

Learn to win an Eday that isn't 2016 as far as Trump you aren't gonna get one penny if he wins we all are screwed if he wins

[- Fayette County, KY, home of Lexington, a mid-sized city with a good mix of urban and suburban areas. If Biden is underperforming here, that could be a sign that he is losing ground in both urban and suburban areas]

Several early indicators to look for:
- Fayette County, KY, home of Lexington, a mid-sized city with a good mix of urban and suburban areas. If Biden is underperforming here, that could be a sign that he is losing ground in both urban and suburban areas

- Georgia - due to recent law changes, GA very likely will count their ballots very quickly this year and if polls are correct and remain steady until November, GA could be called for Trump pretty early (before 10 o'clock). We can look at margins in Fulton (Atlanta) and it's surrounding suburbs and see 1) is turnout down in Atlanta (indicating underperformance with black voters) and 2) is he underperforming his 2020 margins in Metro Atlanta (that doesn't bode well for him in other college-educated suburbs like in Philly)

- Does New Jersey get called right at poll closings? If not, that would mean exit polls are showing a much closer race in the Garden State than we've seen in years. Nobody seriously thinks NJ is going to flip this year, but a significantly closer than usual race could spell doom in neighboring PA.

Biden isn't going to pull the same margins he did in Fayette in 2020 simply because there will be lower turnout given how disliked both Candidates are. It will be more like the Clinton 2016 mergin in Fayette.

Good news. To me, it also adds credence to the argument that corporations have much more control over prices than they let on or that the public realizes.

lol

Biden should be honest about the economy vs. how most americans are doing. Yes prices are still high and people feel the economy is not doing good, but he should still be stressing the reality that the economy is strong and not in a recession. That's not lying nor is it gaslighting.

I’ve only been following elections since 2016, when I was 11 but I like to think I have a fairly decent prediction record. I knew 2016 would be close, predicted a 53-47 senate/dems gaining about 40 in the house in 2018, never bought that 2020 would be a landslide and even here in Canada had Trudeau winning a second term when he was down in most polls. I also always knew this race would be a Biden/Trump rematch.

As of now I’d say Biden pulls this off narrowly but it’s far from a done deal, and as georgiamoderate said a lot can change. We want the answer to this election but simply won’t get it for quite a while. As Adam Carlson (great election analyst, suggest you give him a follow) says, “embrace patience and uncertainty”

Polls essentially nailed 2021 Canadian, actually slightly underrated Tories. Remember that they won the PV in the end. It's just that the Liberals have  a huge geography advantage, and even when O'Toole had a 5 pt lead they were barely going to place first in seats and never were going to form government.

And the spamming resumes. Once again, yelling things is not genocide and conducting a defensive war is also not genocide.