2011 State Elections in Germany

[Hash]

Any reason why Pomerania is so conservative?

[republicanism]

Very nice.

The small dot of bright red northwest of the two Neubrandenburg constituencies shouldn't be there though.

You sure? From the base map it looks to be part of Mecklenburg-Strelitz I.

Looking at this

http://service.mvnet.de/cgi-bin/wahlen/2006_land/txt_wahlen_2006_ergebnis_karte_end.pl

official map I understand why you think so. No idea why they draw it that weird.

But the wikipedia says that Mecklenburg-Strelitz I consists of only four divisions, which form one compact area in the south.

http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Landtagswahlkreis_Mecklenburg-Strelitz_I

http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neustrelitz
http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Feldberger_Seenlandschaft
http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amt_Mecklenburgische_Kleinseenplatte
http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amt_Neustrelitz-Land

This map has it the same:

http://www.election.de/cgi-bin/showcandres_mv11.pl?land=mv11

[Franzl]

What the hell is wrong with this place?

http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neu_Kali%C3%9F

FDP 22.8 and second strongest party.

And the FDP controls 50% of seats at local level as well.

Hääää?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Thomas Gens, the CDU candidate for the election in Rügen I in two weeks, has been expelled from the party because of this his prior affiliation to the DVU. However, he's still running for that district and if elected he'll become an independent member of parliament. Not very likely though, I suppose.

This is what is usually called a streak of bad luck. The original CDU candidate dies prior to election day, and the replacement candidate gets expelled from the party prior to election. When was the last time the CDU wasn't running with a candidate in every district in a state or federal election? (Technically, he'll still be as a CDU candidate on the ballot, I guess.)

[Antonio the Sixth]

What's the new slogan of the FDP ?

"Fast Drei Prozent"

("Almost three percent")

Username-d.

[BenNebbich]

What the hell is wrong with this place?

http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neu_Kali%C3%9F

FDP 22.8 and second strongest party.

And the FDP controls 50% of seats at local level as well.

Hääää?

seem to be a n outstanding nice place.

[minionofmidas]

Very nice.

The small dot of bright red northwest of the two Neubrandenburg constituencies shouldn't be there though.

You sure? From the base map it looks to be part of Mecklenburg-Strelitz I.

Looking at this

http://service.mvnet.de/cgi-bin/wahlen/2006_land/txt_wahlen_2006_ergebnis_karte_end.pl

official map I understand why you think so. No idea why they draw it that weird.

Because the sliver west of it is the portion of Müritz district in the constituency, while this area is the noncontiguous part of Mecklenburg-Strelitz. It is part of Strelitz II.
Of course the contiguity issue only arises thanks to the weird Neubrandenburg city boundary.

[minionofmidas]

What the hell is wrong with this place?

http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neu_Kali%C3%9F

FDP 22.8 and second strongest party.

And the FDP controls 50% of seats at local level as well.

Hääää?

I would guess the state result is a secondary result of the local strength. Maybe the village mayor was also placed highly on the Landtag list?

EDIT: No. Though he was the constituency candidate.

[minionofmidas]

Thomas Gens, the CDU candidate for the election in Rügen I in two weeks, has been expelled from the party because of this his prior affiliation to the DVU. However, he's still running for that district and if elected he'll become an independent member of parliament. Not very likely though, I suppose.

This is what is usually called a streak of bad luck. The original CDU candidate dies prior to election day, and the replacement candidate gets expelled from the party prior to election. When was the last time the CDU wasn't running with a candidate in every district in a state or federal election? (Technically, he'll still be as a CDU candidate on the ballot, I guess.)

Maybe they can endorse the FDP candidate instead? He was, after all, no.1 on the state list.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Provided that the Greens win roughly 18.5% of the party list vote in Rügen I, the NPD is gonna lose a seat in the state parliament. Otherwise, the party list vote from Rügen I won't have much effect.

http://www.wahlrecht.de/news/2011/landtagswahl-mecklenburg-vorpommern-2011.htm

[minionofmidas]

Provided that the Greens win roughly 18.5% of the party list vote in Rügen I, the NPD is gonna lose a seat in the state parliament.

That's a bit unlikely... unless turnout is grotesquely low. And the exact figure presumably depends on turnout. The more touristy parts are in Rügen II.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Turnout has to be 50% according to those calculations.

[minionofmidas]

That's probably, quite literally, impossible.

Anyways, there's no exemption from the 5% threshold for seatwinning parties in MV (as there are in a couple of states... now that would be chaotic in a Nachwahl!) but wouldn't a victorious FDP candidate be seated? Would that seat be taken from the NPD (as the party that got the last seat, if they remain that) as under federal law, or would it be an extra 72nd seat? wahlrecht.de didn't answer that question.

[republicanism]

Wouldn't such a FDP seat just be treated like a usual overhang mandate?

[minionofmidas]

Looked it up, and no (according to wahlrecht.de's pre-election page). It's just as in the Bundestag - there'd be 70 rather than 71 seats distributed to the other parties.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Tempted not to include the FDP as they dropped below 5% and their map was dull anyway (and is there anything more irritating - in terms of electoral maps - than a fringe party with a fundamental boring pattern of support?). It's only there for forms sake.

[Hash]

Any reason why Pomerania is so conservative?

[Franzl]

New federal Forsa poll:

CDU 32
FDP 4

SPD 27
Green 19
Left 9


So: Government 36, Opposition 55


More importantly, were the FDP to be kicked out of parliament. SPD/Green would lead CDU/Left 46-41.

Were the FDP to remain in parliament with exactly 5%, SPD/Green would be tied with the rest at 46-46.


I think the real question at this point is only whether SPD/Green can govern alone or whether they have to finally accept the Left as a coalition partner. And this question, of course, depends on who actually leads the SPD into the next election.

This government is finished, regardless.

[republicanism]

Any reason why Pomerania is so conservative?

It is rural, with no cities or industry. Historically it was an area of large-scale land property, ruled by the landlords, and that basically until 1945. It is now one of the poorest and most sparsely populated areas in Germany, that more or less looses half its youth every year.

The current difference in voting patterns between Mecklenburg and (Lower) Pomerania is known since the Weimar years by the way, when Mecklenburg was one of the strongest SPD states in the Republic, while Pomerania was conservative as ever.

But thats just what the roots are.
I'm afraid I can't give you a good answer why the CDU managed to tie in with this traditions after 40 years of Realsozialismus. May be others can. Lewis?

[Franzl]

Merkel ?

I dunno....hard for me to imagine her having a positive effect anywhere...

[minionofmidas]

What Kunta said is not really true of much of this part of Pomerania. Though of the two "major" towns, Stralsund has navy associations and Greifswald is an old uni town (and we know what that used to mean, once upon a time. Not the same thing as now.) I have the Weimar era results... somewhere... Then again, they're on the net.

There definitely is a "clueless valley" aspect to it - just like Saxony, the area had sh!tty Western TV reception (meaning: somewhat exaggerated assumptions of what the west was like, by the 1980s).

Then the first elected state pm, Alfred Gomolka, was a Greifswald man. Of the constituency MPs elected in 1990, Ulrich Adam served til 2009 and Angela Merkel serves til today - though of course, Merkel has no biographic link to her Stralsund-Rügen constituency or indeed the state, she was selected for it in 1990 more or less at random.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Berlin poll (Infratest)

SPD 29.5%
CDU 22%
Greens 20%
Left 11%
Pirates 6.5%
FDP 3%


Pirate-mentum!



Anyways, majority for SPD/Greens or SPD/CDU.

[Tender Branson]

More Pirate-power !

FGW for ZDF:

32.0 SPD
21.0 CDU
19.5 Greens
11.0 Left
  5.5 Pirates
  3.0 FDP
  8.0 Others

Majority for SPD-CDU, SPD-Greens and a few other (more unlikely) coalitions.

[Franzl]

I wonder how males between 18 and 24 will vote. 20% Pirate?

[Tender Branson]

Here's the breakdown of the Infratest/ARD poll by Western-Berlin and Eastern-Berlin:

West

30% SPD
28% CDU
22% Greens
  6% Pirates
  4% Left
  3% FDP
  7% Others

East

29% SPD
22% Left
16% Greens
14% CDU
  7% Pirates
  2% FDP
10% Others

Also, the direct vote for Berlin Mayor:

56% Klaus Wowereit (SPD)
18% Renate Künast (Greens)

And, only a SPD-Green coalition gets majority support from the voters with 49-47 approval.

http://www.tagesschau.de/inland/berlintrend104.pdf