Portugal's politics and elections

[Republican Left]

Hello, Mike, if I may ask, what would you do to "fix" Portugal, if you were PM, has your coalition behind you and got at least two terms?

[Republican Left]

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[Republican Left]

Hello Mike, I know this isn't an AMA about Portugal's political history but I wanted to a few questions.

a) Why does Portugal (and it other southern counterparts like Spain, Italy and Greece) have relatively underdeveloped economies particularly compared to its northern counterparts (Scandinavia, UK, Germany etc)? Is this partly due to corruption and public integrity issues (and if so, what are the reasons behind long-run corruption, is this the legacy of monarchical partimonialism?)

b) Why is the "right" in Portugal (CSD/PSD) so weak? Is there anything they (particularly the CSD-PP) can do to win back broad base appeal (focus on grassroots organization and outreach?) Is this due to austerity measures that alienated many Portuguese voters? The fusion of many of the leftist parties akin to the CDS-PP and PSD coalitions? Or is it a geographic thing (the South is very left and the bulk of voters live there?)?

[Republican Left]

Two more questions, I wanted to ask.

a) Are conservatives rare or hard to fine in Portugal (I understand conservative can be very relative)?

And, the most controversial question of all.

b) How have you been? If I understand, you're an American expat who lives in Portugal (Lisbon?), how is life there? How beautiful is the country, the culture and her people in your opinion?  Is the cost of living there quite affordable or a bit pricey?

[Republican Left]

After being ignored by everybody in the PSD, André Ventura will leave the PSD and form a new social conservative party:


André Ventura in a PSD rally for the 2017 local elections.

After his campaign to remove Rui Rio from the PSD leadership failed, no major PSD figures nor any PSD local structure wanted to be associated with him or his campaign, André Ventura is now leaving the PSD. The still councillor from Loures wants to form a new party called "Enough!" and its main policies will be forbiding same sex marriages, introducing life sentences and implementing chemical castration of pedophiles. It will also be, according to him, a full liberal party in terms of economics.

Wouldn't joining the CDS be a more practical move?

[Republican Left]

How come Portugal is the only country or one of the few that social democracy seems to be in reasonably good shape, not collapsing?  Anything the Socialist party doing differently than other social democratic parties in Europe or is it due to unique circumstances in Portugal.

It's more of the unique circumstances of Portugal, although anything is possible nowadays. Portugal doesn't have immigration problems, for example, which could have led to an increase of extreme movements. In fact, the main worries of the population are the economy, corruption and the state of welfare state. Plus, the PS is pursuing policies very similar, some copypaste, to the PSD ones which deflate any arguments PSD or CDS have against them, and, with a growing economy, for now, the PS can bought the silence of PCP and BE in many policy areas, like cuts to the NHS. For now, this is the situation.

But, it can change. We don't know how the economy will perform in the next few months, the latest signs are very troubling with exports falling almost 9% and imports increasing 11% due to strikes in Setúbal harbour that prevented Autoeuropa of exporting cars, and Germany, according, to some reports, could be on the verge of a recession. The PS will win this year's election, but the question is how will Costa act in his second term. Will he be a decisive leader, persuing big reforms on the economy? or will he be indecisive and freeze in the face of difficulties? If the PS acts like they did in 1999/2000 and 2009/2010, and with a renovated PSD, probably, they could face serious electoral challenges ahead.

Since it seems like the SP can rule with a grand coalition with BE and PCP, does that mean the PSD and their friends in the CDS are basically "underground" or subjected to "enduring minority" status, could this be an opportunity for both parties to shore up their base and support and rebuild the party with the hope of winning over the majority of the Portuguese maybe not in the next election but perhaps in the next generation? Also, if I may ask, how are you doing, how is the your new year going in Portugal? Did you visit any beautiful places in the country?

[Republican Left]

With the 2019 elections over, here's how the current party standings compares with the past: (in % of MPs)


*CDU includes PCP and APU results

The next election is the regional election in Azores, schedule to October 2020. This election, currently, seems to be a PS hold as the PSD-Azores is in internal crisis. The party will have a leadership election on 14 December, and until now, no candidate has come forward. However, there's pressures for the mayor of Ponta Delgada, José Bolieiro, to run in an unity ticket to unify the party. The current PSD-Azores leader, Alexandre Gaudêncio, resigned from the leadership a few weeks ago due to the corruption investigations around him.

So, in 2020 there will be the Azores regional elections in October, and the PSD leadership elections in January.

What occurred with Centro Democratica e Social - Partito Popular,  what is necessary to rise again?

[Republican Left]

What occurred with Centro Democratica e Social - Partito Popular,  what is necessary to rise again?

Well, almost everything that could have gone wrong, went wrong. First, voters seem to dislike CDS' very tough and negative campaign against Costa and the PS, as Cristas defined herself as the "de facto" leader of the opposition and had the hope of surpassing the PSD. Second, because Cristas was a member of the former PSD/CDS government, many voters, especially older voters, associated her with the deep cuts particularly in pensions, a very important part as a big chunk of CDS' voter base is older voters. Then, there is a kind of ideological battle within the CDS, as many party members aren't particularly happy with Cristas more moderate approach on social issues. And finally, the May teachers crisis and, maybe, tactical voting for PSD in some areas did the rest, not to mention that CDS also lost many voters to Enough and Liberal Initiative (IL).

Now, how can the party recover? Right now, thing looks bleaker than even on election night. No major party figure has come forward to ran for the leadership and the party is facing financial problems as the just 5 MPs means the party will receive less money, by state subventions, and they are now laying off staffers and closing headquarters across the country. CDS is also facing more competition on the right with the arrival of Enough and IL, as they target surgically CDS's liberal and social conservative voters. It's very unclear how the next 4 years will for CDS. The party is really in shambles and some pundits are predicting the extinction of CDS, however I wouldn't go that far, but CDS needs a mobilizing leader like Paulo Portas. For almost 20 years, CDS was him and his departure from the leadership emptied the party.

Why don't the Centro Democratica e Social Partito Popular consolidate the conservative elements of Portugal and Partito Social Democrate consolidate the centrist and both can try to get a moderate to right leaning majority in Portugal like revive Alizana Popular and idealistically do what is best for Portugal?

Personally, what do you think Portugal needs especially to be a powerhouse from what I get, doesn't Iberia have its share of economic struggles?