[
So Trump’s supposedly ahead in the state by 7-12 points, but Republicans are triaging every competitive house seat in the state? Huh.
Yeah it's very possible GOP does not believe those polls, which I don't blame them. If Trump was winning by 9% in Nevada, they would absolutely be playing here - even given how well Dems did in 2022.
quote author=Chancellor Tanterterg link=topic=530268.msg9493619#msg9493619 date=1716810181 uid=1424]
If Trump is being overestimated then he’d likely lose since he’s barely up in the three rust belt states.
Wasn't SC-01 like Trump +8 in 2020 (and moving leftward?) Safe R seems a bit much.
They have FL-13 at Likely R too. If that’s not considered Safe R neither should SC-01.
Also both have Dems with decent fundraising.
Also, unlike in SC-1, Democrats actually have a seemingly somewhat stronger than expected wave insurance candidate in FL-13 (still nothing amazing, but about two rungs above the generic some dude she initially appeared to be). Mace is a very weak incumbent who may or may not have genuine mental health issues and is at her core basically a really trashy redneck sorority airhead (which isn’t the best fit for her district), but she is now in a Republican enough district that she’s basically safe for the time being in a GE despite being (to quote South Park) something out of a stereotype coloring book. I think she’d have lost in the old district lines to an A-list opponent, but she’s not going to draw any serious GE opposition right now.
By contrast, Luna is so unhinged and ideologically out of sync with her district (as opposed to Mace, who is stylistically out of touch, but ideologically bipolar and strikes me as a Ron Johnson type who talks very, very, very differently to her constituents/Charleston local media than she does in Congress or in front of national media or at out-of-district events) that she [Luna] almost lost in 2022 to a pretty unheralded Democratic sacrificial lamb. At her core, Luna is an unhinged MAGA nutjob and it really shows. Incidentally, I’d argue that a stronger Democratic candidate almost certainly would’ve beaten her in 2022. I think Democrats made a mistake by not rubbing anyone more serious than wave insurance here, but who knows what the internal polling showed.
[/quote]
Mace’s district is bluer than Peltola’s and about on par with Boebert’s current seat, and only a couple points redder than her old one. It wasn’t a dramatic shoring up like Stephanie Bice or Burgess Owens got.
