Mississippi 2015 Megathread

[Del Tachi]

Ugh.  And to think that I was a probable Slater voter...

Overall though, it turned out to be a pretty good night as far as statewide races go.  Pickering and Fitch survived much more easily than most were expecting.  Not much good news on the legislative front though, with Nancy Collins going down quite spectacularly, Melanie Sojourner and Michael Watson winning their could-have-been competitive primaries, and Steve Hale losing to Bill Stone.  

But to agree with Harry, yes, the MS Dems are now a complete joke and Ricky Cole should resign.  While Slater had almost no chance of beating Bryant, she would have created enough buzz to buoy other Democrats in local/legislative races.  Jim Hood could really suffer with Slater not at the top of the ticket, although I still think he's narrowly favored.  I guess the only bright spot for the Dems this go around is they got Tim Johnson for LG - a former GOP State Senator from Madison County - and by giving him the microphone this fall they can maybe change some hearts and minds over Medicaid expansion.

Also, answer me this...what would happen if Gray decided to drop-out?  Seems like MS Dems might be able to convince a man who didn't even bother voting for himself that he should get out of the race.  If he dropped-out, would the MS Dem Committee be able to pick another candidate to represent them in the general?  Could it be Slater?    

[Del Tachi]

I'll say it again, Democrats totally deserve this for nominating awful candidates. They could have at least ran a mayor like Connie Moran or somebody like that. But instead they got behind a trial lawyer from Madison and got burned in the primary because she had no name ID. Rickey Cole is an idiot.

I think the democrats were originally going for Childers or Presley. But when neither would run, they were sent scrambling.

Childers was never going to run, Presley wasn't going to run either (at least in this cycle). I wish they could have convinced some state legislator to run, they would have likely gotten blown out but would at least have political experience.

Running for statewide office in Mississippi as an incumbent, Democratic state legislator is the same as retiring. 

[Del Tachi]

I find it interesting that just as many Democrats as Republicans voted in the Primary. Did it have something to do with the fact that there was no competitive race on the Republican side?

No, it has to do because MS Democrats are still king in local elections:

beautiful map

[Del Tachi]

http://kingfish1935.blogspot.com/2015/09/hurst-challenges-hood-to-three-debates.html?m=1

Just to hear your perspective Gesp, how do you rate the AG's race?  I think its quite competitive, but I think Hood holds a narrow advantage thanks to name recognition and his relative popularity in the Northeastern corner of the state.

Off topic, but congrats to the 2 MSU fans in this thread on the win last night. My guys were able to keep it interesting for a little while but ultimately the talent gap was too large. Good luck against LSU.

Thank you, and HAIL STATE

[Del Tachi]

My Ballot:

Governor:  Phil Brant (R, inc.)
Lieutenant Governor:  Tim Johnson (D)
Secretary of State:  Delbert Hosemann (R, inc.)
Attorney General:  Jim Hood (D, inc.)
State Treasurer:  Lynn Fitch (R, inc.)
State Auditor:  Stacey E. Pickering (R, inc.)
Insurance Commissioner:  Mike Cheney (R, inc.)
Agricultural Commissioner:  Cindy Hyde-Smith (R, inc.)

Public Service Commissioner, Northern District:  Brandon Presley (D, inc.)
Transportation Commissioner, Northern District:  Mike Tagert (R, inc.)

State House, District 43:  Paul Millsaps (D)
State Senate, District 15:  Cecil Simmons (D)

Ballot Measure 42: NO on Question 1; "42A" on Question 2

Bolded candidates are the ones I think will win, which just so happens to correspond with incumbents in my case.  There are some interesting county/local races happening in my area, but I'm not going to bore y'all with them.

I think the vote on 42 will be very close, but I think "No" will carry the first question somewhere around 52-48. 

I'll pick Childers to best Tracy Arnold; Hob Bryan should hold-on but it might be very close.   

[Del Tachi]

Any updates on the disgusting Initiative 42 shenanigans?  Do most expect passage or failure under the new rules?

Most politicos I talk to expect failure.  The GOP/Higher Education machine in the state really has done a good job of defining the campaign, and I think it'll pay dividends tomorrow.

Thank God. 

[Del Tachi]

Anti-42 vote totals will also be running-up quite significantly in Oktibbeha, Lafayette, and Forrest Counties.  These aren't insignificant population centers, and these areas' dependence on higher-ed makes them especially weary of the budget implications of 42.

Mississippi State Extension Service has been telling their employees that passage of 42 means a 45% cut in FY 2016 budgets.  They've already announced a delay of raises contingent on 42's outcome.  45% cut?  That's probably a bit overblown, but that type of fear-mongering among the State's IHLs is exactly what needs to happen in order to defeat 42.   

[Del Tachi]

Anti-42 vote totals will also be running-up quite significantly in Oktibbeha, Lafayette, and Forrest Counties.  These aren't insignificant population centers, and these areas' dependence on higher-ed makes them especially weary of the budget implications of 42.

Mississippi State Extension Service has been telling their employees that passage of 42 means a 45% cut in FY 2016 budgets.  They've already announced a delay of raises contingent on 42's outcome.  45% cut?  That's probably a bit overblown, but that type of fear-mongering among the State's IHLs is exactly what needs to happen in order to defeat 42.   

I haven't heard much about Starkville, but I thought Oxford was ground zero for pro-42 politics?

Oxford has more nuanced "town and gown" relations than Starkville or Hattiesburg.  I don't think there's overlap between the big pro-42 people in Oxford and the TSUN big-wigs.  Ole Miss has always been, nominally, more liberal than MSU or USM, but MSU and USM's nominal political influence is probably larger (they have more employees). 

[Del Tachi]

Init42 failing 56/44 in DeSoto with 10/39 precincts reporting.  Splitting even in Hancock, Lauderdale.  "No" will likely post large margins in the NE, based on Tishomingo, Itawamba results.  Also failing 56/44 in Madison, only 1 precinct though.  

[Del Tachi]

Calling it now, "No" will win the first question. 

[Del Tachi]

Not looking good for Lauren Childers.

She's only trailing by 800 raw votes, and I think what's been reported is the Booneville precincts.  She should do better in the rural county precincts.  

[Del Tachi]

If the voters of Mississippi aren't willing to elect a legislature that'll fund MAEP, what made some posters here think that the same voters would vote to amend the constitution to give judges the authority to rob other state agencies to pay for MAEP?

[Del Tachi]

Initiative 42 county results.  Left side is Question 1, right side is Question 2.

[Del Tachi]

Kinda random, but a Harper/Sojourner primary in CD-3 would be wildly entertaining.

As would a Palazzo/McDaniel race in MS-4

Also, should we be keeping an eye-out for GOP shenanigans in MS-01 for 2016?  Kelly could be vulnerable in a GOP primary just because he isn't that well-established, and a DeSoto County candidate would have a pretty big advantage in a GOP primary.