German Elections & Politics

[Leftbehind]

Why is Die Linke doing so badly?

8% is fairly normal for DL?

[Leftbehind]

I note PC have DL as slightly to the right of British Labour, and in line the UK Green party? I haven't interrogated their policy platform, but that can't be right, surely? Labour were offering standard social democracy at the last election, unless they've ignored that in favour of the leadership/cabinet's actual views, which are much more socialist.

Are DL as Eurosceptic as Mélenchon and Corbyn? I wonder if that drags them to centre in this ranking. 

[Leftbehind]

For the two surveys:

80% Left
77% Green
58% SPD
41% AfD
39% CDU/CSU
36% FDP

&

70% Left
60% Pirate
55% Green
47% SPD
41% CDU/FDP
37% AfD

[Leftbehind]

Isn't it a bit self-evident that a party that has been in coalitions with the government for the majority of this past decade, and is going into the election as one, isn't going to convincingly argue they're the vehicle for change? That consensus seemed to be best shown within the debates, where there was mockery on how often the two leaders agreed.

I welcome Schulz's support for a Red-Green government, and his focus within the campaign, but I think until the SPD are out of government they will not be able to land the punches and channel the public disquiet and are left languishing.

It is a shame it's going to AFD, but not in the least bit surprising.

[Leftbehind]

Well to be fair, no-one would have predicted that Flanby would win a second term; and that's basically what happened...

...? What are you referring to here?

[Leftbehind]

Oh, I knew the dessert and the politician it referred to - I suppose I just see Macron's Frankenstein monster appreciably different to PS at its worst. Left-wing wags you say...

[Leftbehind]

Absolutely - but the regrettable liberal influence over a PS at its worst is altogether different from a vehicle that offers nothing but those liberals.

[Leftbehind]

Since red-green is very far away from a majority, I assume you meant red-red-green. Well, Schulz only said that he doesn't rule out this coalition under certain conditions. I wouldn't really call that support.

Of course, the Greens are former coalition partners, the (federal) Left are former untouchables. I was using Red-Green in the same way it was used in the Norwegian election - not accounting for the different shades of red and green within it. I think the fact that he refused to rule it out was still worth welcoming - the German left appears to be forever f**ked otherwise.

True, the recent grand coalitions are additional baggage for the SPD. But do you remember when the SPD's poll figures suddenly surged after Schulz entered the stage of German politics? So there were apparently many people who did see a "vehicle for change" in the SPD at that time.

Well that's the problem, the bubble burst and I suspect it was in large part because Schulz couldn't maintain the perception he was that change.

[Leftbehind]

Have Die Linke ran a generally good campaign?

Can a party running as a joke run a good or bad campaign?

How are they running as a joke?

[Leftbehind]

Neither of them have apparently the guts for a minority government.
So the only remaining option is a grand coalition (SPD + CDU), on which they're currently negotiating. Especially the SPD isn't happy with the prospect of a grand coalition, though.

Where does it end? No-one will contemplate minority or pre-election voting blocs so German politics hangs in the balance that the social democrats are left propping up CDU governments forever more? F**k that.

[Leftbehind]

Minority governments are not plain sailing precisely because you've failed to convince voters, or many potential coalition partners, you're the right government. I'd rather you worry about doing something to fix that than upturn a well-functioning multi-party democracy with meaningful differences so you can remove those choices and force the German public into binary lesser-evilism to win an artificial mandate rewarded with seat totals far beyond what your votes deserve. Those Green and Left voters were already going towards SPD in the event they could form a government.

[Leftbehind]

At the end of the day Merkel nor the CDU are owed never-ending majorities with unwilling coalition partners being their sacrificial lambs when they can barely scrape together a third of the vote with the CSU. 

If Germany can put behind their history in terms of forging a new defence (as her recent speech indicated) I don't see why they can't accept minority governments are not the done thing until they have to be.

[Leftbehind]

Hm... The two societies are hard to compare. The equivalent to a liberal Labour MP may be found in either the SPD or the Greens, probably not the FDP, and probably not Bayern FW, I feel. Of course, this is relative because the centre grounds of political opinion are quite different. I'd add that in Bavaria, there is an apparent local-religious element that may affect party preference, and also that traditional social-liberal issues are less important in both Germany and the UK than domestic and European economic policies and immigration.

I assume he's referring to the UK Liberal Democrats rather than liberal MPs within Labour? Although I'd have to wonder why he chose the UK Lib Dems as a representatives for left-leaning liberals when the market-liberals (Orange Book) have dominated their recent history (leading to their collapse), with Charles Kennedy-types (RIP) thoroughly marginalised.

[Leftbehind]

Wow, I hadn't realised that SPD + Linke combined was less than the Union.

Hasn't that been the case for at least the past five years (ignoring the Schulz surge)?

[Leftbehind]

Interesting thing is that, judging by recent polling, the left wing vote is still actually sitting at around 40%, which is barely different to the election - but Die Linke and the Greens have only seen marginal rises in response to the SPD's fall.

I guess the question is, if the SPD is as doomed as is being made out, and Germany maintains a 40%ish left wing vote, will Die Linke, the Greens or someone else manage to make some serious progess? Are do we wind up with three parties in the 10-15% range?

Yeah I noticed that, also that those deserting the SPD were splitting roughly in thirds to staying at home, to the left and to the right. But depending on how their voters react, I think we may be flattering ourselves to think of the SPD vote as left.

[Leftbehind]

Die Linke could become the strongest party in any state election for the first time:
In Berlin, they would receive 20% right now

So better than they achieved in 2016 and despite being in government? Their support dropped like a stone the last time, I wonder what the difference is now.