Which of these governorships could flip in a Democratic 2022 midterm?

[wesmoorenerd]

If your answer for any of these is contingent on retirements or specific candidates jumping in, please specify in the replies down below.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

KS, is the main one. Fetterman is gonna be the nxt Gov of Pa, along with Sestak as Dem Senator

[ElectionsGuy]

How I see it now with a Democratic president

CO: Lean D
KS: Lean R
ME: Toss-Up
MI: Toss-Up
MN: Lean D
NM: Likely D
NV: Lean D
PA: Toss-Up
WI: Toss-Up
AZ: Lean R
FL: Lean R
GA: Lean R
IA: Likely R
MA: Safe R/Likely D
MD: Likely D
NH: Likely R/Toss-Up
OH: Likely R
TX: Likely R
VT: Likely R/Likely D

So that's 8 flippable governorships for R's, 4-7 for Democrats, depending on if there's blue state Republican retirements.

[MarkD]

The ones that COULD flip are New Hampshire, Vermont, Arizona, Kansas, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and the most likely to flip is Maryland.

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

Massachusetts and Vermont are guaranteed to flip D if Baker and Scott don't run again. Maryland will flip D no matter what.

Texas is another interesting possible flip, but that depends pretty heavily on whether or not Abbot runs again.

[Gracile]

Maryland is basically a given.

Kansas, Maine, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and New Hampshire/Vermont (depending on who is in office) are also likely.

[Roll Roons]

In a perfect storm maybe even Illinois.

[Senator Incitatus]

I can easily imagine most of these flipping except New Mexico and Massachusetts with Baker.

I don't think any would be guaranteed to flip (even Vermont and Massachusetts if open) unless Kelly's approvals tank.

[Frenchrepublican]

KS, MI, NV, WI, PA, MA (without Baker), MD

[Frenchrepublican]

CO: Likely D
KS: Lean R
ME: Lean D
MI: Toss-Up (gas tax could hurt Whitmer)
MN: Lean D
NM: Likely D
NV: Tilt D
PA: Toss-Up
WI: Toss-Up
AZ: Lean R
FL: Safe R
GA: Likely R
IA: Likely R or Safe R if Reynolds runs again
MA: Safe R/Likely D without Baker
MD: Likely D
NH: Likely R/Toss-Up
OH: Safe R
TX: Safe R
VT: Likely R/Likely D without Scott

[Mr. Smith]

R -> D: Maryland's gone no matter what, and NH/VT are possibilities depending on who the candidates are.

D -> R: KS, WI, PA, NV, & ME

[😥]

R -> D: MD, NH/VT/MA (without incumbents)

D -> R: KS, WI

[Sir Mohamed]

KS: Kelly is vulnerable, but favored.

PA: In a Dem midterm, it could go back GOP; except for 2014, parties have traded the governorship each 8 years.

WI: Evers could lose in a Dem midterm, no question.

FL: Tossup in a Trump midterm, likely R with a Dem prez. After all, it's FL and might be another 1% majority election.

GA: Kemp barely hang onby voter fraud. Pure tossup.

IA: Depends on Reynold running and who is prez.

MA: Only with Baker retiring.

NH: Obviously can go either way, maybe Sununu retires.

VT: See above and replace Sununu with Scott.

[Politician]

It's ratings time!

I'm assuming Baker runs for re-election. No ratings for NH or VT.

[Morning in Atlas]

NH, MD, KS,  AZ, GA, MD, OH, TX. I'll throw in Oklahoma if Stitt continues Fallin's trend of turning everything they touch to crap.

[Orser67]

All of the Democratic seats listed here except NM, plus AZ, VT, NH, MA, and MD (contingent on retirements, at least for MA)