Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[Maxwell]

PVV is left of VVD, but I wouldn't call that left overall.

[Hifly]

Hindustanis significantly supported the PVV.

Americans should be aware that "Hindustani" is not the contemporary term used to describe the persons from that part of the world.

It is a contemporary term to describe people of Indo-Surinamese descent.

Not in English-speaking countries.

[DavidB.]

Hindustani is the common Dutch term for people from Suriname of Indian descent. I don't know of any other such term.

>PVV is left economically.
Favorite VVD talking point but not actually true, or at least it's not that simple. It's difficult to pinpoint the PVV ideologically, both when it comes to economic issues and to other issues, but most would say they are somewhere in the center: lower pension age on the one hand, lower taxes on the other hand. I always use the CHES (Chapel Hill Expert Survey) dataset to get to know parties' political positions (insert obligatory comment on the pros and cons of using expert surveys here). On variable lrecon (left-right economics) the PVV score 8.3 in 2006, 5.1 in 2010 and 4.5 in the most recent survey of 2014 on a scale from 0 (left-wing) to 10 (right-wing); this would indicate that the PVV, indeed, are more on the left than on the right nowadays; still doubtful whether that classification means the party is left-wing, but that's up to you.

>PVV won working class
You're probably not going to find any exit polls on class, but based on Ipsos' exit poll on education (see at the bottom of the page "opleidingsniveau") 40% of the PVV's electorate consisted of lower educated voters, more than any other party. 15% of the VVD's electorate were lower educated and while they got 21% and the PVV 13%, the PVV should have gotten a bigger share of lower educated voters and therefore have won them (I haven't made any calculations here though). You will also need to motivate using education as a proxy for class, but given that there are no direct questions about class in polls here you should be safe.

> SP came in second with working-class voters
Same story, but I don't know for sure if this is true (though it probably is). You should calculate this.

>Jan Marijnissen is immigration skeptic
This is going to be a tough one, and I don't think it's actually true. You could refer to Gastarbeid en Kapitaal (1983) but I don't even know if Marijnissen had a role in that. In parliament Marijnissen has always advocated for fewer restrictions for refugees, not more -- it is integration where he seems to have talked more toughly. Regardless, there is too little information (and too much contradicting information) to make this bold a statement about Marijnissen's immigration views.

>A majority of Muslims voted DENK.
Pollster Maurice de Hond (Peil.nl) here concludes on the basis of some data that "about half" of the Dutch Muslim voters who turned out voted DENK. So avoid the word majority.

>Hindustanis significantly supported the PVV.
Wouldn't use the term "significantly" here, but there are various sources that show many Hindustanis vote PVV, some of them more reputable than others. In this newspaper article, anthropologist Shashi Roopram, himself Hindustani, talks about his qualitative research project on Hindustanis and the PVV, in which he concluded that the PVV attract Hindustani voters from all social classes. He says the PVV are mainly popular because of Hindu nationalism and the fact that Hindustanis view themselves as a more successful minority than Muslims. However, there's no hard numbers on this.

[Famous Mortimer]

Any traditionally working class electoral districts where I can point to the success of the PVV and the SP as evidence of their popularity with the White working class?

[Famous Mortimer]

Also, obviously, thanks! That was super fast.

[DavidB.]

Any traditionally working class electoral districts where I can point to the success of the PVV and the SP as evidence of their popularity with the White working class?

The Netherlands does not have any electoral districts, but you can refer to their success in the municipalities of Pekela (24% PVV, 24% SP, both sharp increase) in the north, Kerkrade (PVV 28.9%, SP 19.3%) in the south, Nissewaard (PVV 23.7, SP 10.5%) in the west. (The PVV got 13.1% and the SP 9.1% nationally). If you need more, let me know or simply check this map and click places in the far south or northeast where PVV or SP came first.

[Famous Mortimer]

Great! Very helpful. Only have to re-word things a tiny bit.

[Famous Mortimer]

Just one more! A source saying that Muslims used to support the PvdA?

[Zinneke]

Just one more! A source saying that Muslims used to support the PvdA?

https://wijblijvenhier.nl/15192/stemgedrag-moslims-sp-groeit-het-sterkst-maar-pvda-wint/

Very poor sample though. But it should do as a source. For alternativez, Just google stegedrag + moslims +nederland 2012

Btw, how does your paper not change dramatically given DavidB's corrections? And just out of curiousity, how do you define working class?

EDIT
http://www.ad.nl/binnenland/pvv-wil-meedoen-in-zestig-gemeenteraden~ac5ab962/

PVV will stand in 60 communes. All out assault on South Limburg, the PVV heartland.

Seems like Wilders is looking to consolidate the party now.

[DavidB.]

Well, this is waiting for a disaster to happen.

[DavidB.]

PVV will stand in 60 communes. All out assault on South Limburg, the PVV heartland.

Based on the map in the newspaper article it wouldn't be an "all-out assault": in South Limburg they would only stand in Maastricht, Stein, Sittard-Geleen, Kerkrade, Landgraaf and Heerlen (but not in Onderbanken and Brunssum, two of the smaller municipalities where they perform very well).

[Antonio the Sixth]

Ugh, of f**king course GL would sell out at the first opportunity.

[DavidB.]

Ugh, of f**king course GL would sell out at the first opportunity.

That remains to be seen. Still think it's not going to happen.

[Helsinkian]

Why is it that PVV does not run candidates in all the municipalities?

[DavidB.]

Why is it that PVV does not run candidates in all the municipalities?

In 2010 and 2014 they only ran lists in The Hague and Almere, two cities where the PVV are strong, so 60 municipalities would be a very big step already. The PVV are not a party with members, and there is no hierarchical structure to attract capable candidates and separate the wheat from the chaff. Wilders decides on everything and is extremely paranoid -- partly because he's very narcissistic, but in this case partly because of the (rightful) fear that far-right loons would become politicians without being filtered out by the PVV organization and damage the party's national image. The PVV brand is very toxic and anyone who has been a PVV politician will have a very hard time ever getting another job, so the party is bound to attract only those who are extremely ideological and/or have very little to lose, which can be a pretty toxic combination. But the party has had a very hard time attracting capable candidates for this year's parliamentary election: most new MPs were members of provincial councils. It seems Wilders has accepted that something needs to change and that this could happen by running lists in municipalities where they do well (which is the case for all of the above municipalities). I personally doubt they will actually stand in all of these places, but we will see.

[Zinneke]

Some thoughts based on what DavidB said : the PVV started on the national stage, in the corridors of the Hague parliament, with Wilders' defection from the VVD and the publicity surrounding it.  They saw no value in building local parties, because like David said it revolves around Geert Wilders and his involvement in the Hague.
Other anti-mainstream parties have started with grassroots or civil society figures at more local levels and worked their way up. Case point : Wilder's predecessor, Pim Fortuyn, who surfed on the Leefbaar movement before becoming a national figure. Or Baudet from the Ukraine referendum and his thinktank.

So you've got two contrasting strategies if you want to make a new inroad in Dutch politics. You either defect with a big enough temper tantrum to raise national awareness and try to keep the spotlight on you (Wilders, Kurzu). Or you build from a civil society nackground or local movement then fill in voids in the electoral market on a national level (FvD, Fortuyn, to a lesser extent SP, early D66).

Also, overpersonalisation around Fortuyn led to the downfall of LPF-Leefbaar, albeit in tragic circumstances. Wilders might be realising that right now. It'll be interesting to see how he runs his party now though.

[freek]

PVV will stand in 60 communes. All out assault on South Limburg, the PVV heartland.

Based on the map in the newspaper article it wouldn't be an "all-out assault": in South Limburg they would only stand in Maastricht, Stein, Sittard-Geleen, Kerkrade, Landgraaf and Heerlen (but not in Onderbanken and Brunssum, two of the smaller municipalities where they perform very well).

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C8oUOXuXgAIiX4R.jpg

Participating in Edam-Volendam next year will be a bit of a challenge, there were early elections in 2015 because of the merger with Zeevang. The next elections are planned in 2022.

[DavidB.]

And Theo Hiddema had already confirmed to PowNed that FvD's visit to Volendam earlier this week could partly be understood as a way to be in touch with their voters before the municipal election. LOL.

[jeron]

Why is it that PVV does not run candidates in all the municipalities?

Most parties don't run in every municipality.

GL, D66 and SP have a low presence in the Bible belt
SGP doesn't run in most cities
CU and SGP generally stay out of heavy Catholic areas.
PvdA didn't run in 2014 in several smaller municipalities last time like Urk, Renswoude and Nieuwkoop.

[Zuza]

Why is it that PVV does not run candidates in all the municipalities?

Most parties don't run in every municipality.

GL, D66 and SP have a low presence in the Bible belt
SGP doesn't run in most cities
CU and SGP generally stay out of heavy Catholic areas.
PvdA didn't run in 2014 in several smaller municipalities last time like Urk, Renswoude and Nieuwkoop.

But I thought PVV has a significant enough presence in almost all municipalities.

[DavidB.]

Why is it that PVV does not run candidates in all the municipalities?

Most parties don't run in every municipality.

True, but a party the size of the PVV could be expected to stand almost everywhere.

[DavidB.]

So the formation is slowly moving forward and the longer it takes, the likelier the VVD-CDA-D66-GroenLinks coalition obviously becomes. Informateur Edith Schippers, the leader of the negotiations, gives a weekly press conference on the developments but only talks about procedural points, not about policy issues. The four parties are looking to formulate a "common vision" for the country because they think they cannot just be unified by compromises.

According to peil.nl's latest poll, 76% would approve of a majority government (which VVD-CDA-D66-GL would be) being formed and only 18% of a minority government. Old habits die hard. Voters approve of none of the party leaders at the negotiating table: on a scale from 0 to 10 Buma gets a 5.3, Pechtold a 5.2, Klaver a 5.1 and Rutte a 5.0. Informateur Schippers does get a 5.5, which is the minimum passable grade in the Dutch system.

[Klartext89]

I'm only laughing about these naive idiot non-left voters voting VVD or CDA because they sound like Wilders on the campaign trail but are "reasonable". Once again they get skewed and earn a left government with more useless immigration, more embracement and appeasement of Islam and so on. Hope they enjoy it. But I'm sure they will be fuming for the next 5 years and let themselves beimng fooled again when the next election comes. It never stops. In former times I was angry about it, now I'm more an more simply laughing about that ignorance and stupidity.

[Intell]

I'm only laughing about these naive idiot non-left voters voting VVD or CDA because they sound like Wilders on the campaign trail but are "reasonable". Once again they get skewed and earn a left government with more useless immigration, more embracement and appeasement of Islam and so on. Hope they enjoy it. But I'm sure they will be fuming for the next 5 years and let themselves beimng fooled again when the next election comes. It never stops. In former times I was angry about it, now I'm more an more simply laughing about that ignorance and stupidity.

What left-wing government?

I see 3 right-wing parties leading, that are going to  over workers and the poor.

Also fyck the Green Left, I hate these sort of feel good identity left-wing parties, that join right-wing coalitions, and do nothing to the cause of dis-enfranchised and dispossessed. What can you expect from this sort of party, that has the voter demographics, that the Green Left has.

[Zinneke]

I'm only laughing about these naive idiot non-left voters voting VVD or CDA because they sound like Wilders on the campaign trail but are "reasonable". Once again they get skewed and earn a left government with more useless immigration, more embracement and appeasement of Islam and so on. Hope they enjoy it. But I'm sure they will be fuming for the next 5 years and let themselves beimng fooled again when the next election comes. It never stops. In former times I was angry about it, now I'm more an more simply laughing about that ignorance and stupidity.

What left-wing government?

I see 3 right-wing parties leading, that are going to  over workers and the poor.

Also fyck the Green Left, I hate these sort of feel good identity left-wing parties, that join right-wing coalitions, and do nothing to the cause of dis-enfranchised and dispossessed. What can you expect from this sort of party, that has the voter demographics, that the Green Left has.

GL's power in the coalition will depend on the type. It could be one (like the last) where the ministries are divided up and every party does their main policy to the fullest extent within their ministries, without outside interference, and then some sort of compromise on the economy. In that case GL would be given Environment and watch as right-wing policy comes into full force. I would think GL would eventually decide to collapse the government and an interim one with the religious parties would be formed. They could still recover based on their record in their policy field and the two other left parties being an utter shambles.

Or it could be that GL basically negotiate on every single policy to ensure you have what looks like a centrist coalition, in which case GL would probably see it through and suffer an electoral drubbing as moderate heroes tend to do.

I really think that there will be a stumbling block that allows Klaver to walk away from the deal though. He is only doing this because our political bubbles in the Lowlands still think in net winners and net losers after elections as a formation rule.