So all that really matters is this:
Because any Romney trends won't go far enough to flip PA, IA, etc., only NH (and of course IN/NC/FL). If the Dem trend continues in CO/VA/OH then all is well.
I think CO/VA could go either way on a trend map, at this point. Too many rich people.
Really? Well obviously there's very little room for Obama to survive if either of those trends away from him - particularly Colorado - but happily there's little indication of that so far.
I'm not saying they will, it would be more of a toss-up which way they will trend. But Ohio will trend to Obama, and if Colorado trends to Romney it won't be by more than 1% against national average, and Nevada is out of reach. I'd say Obama is fairly safe unless he loses big(>1%) in the popular vote.
This is actually possible. If Ohio trends over 2% to Obama and Colorado trends 1% to Romney(not completely unrealistic).