What would the 2012 results have looked like if Democrats won 59% of whites? (user search)
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  What would the 2012 results have looked like if Democrats won 59% of whites? (search mode)
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Author Topic: What would the 2012 results have looked like if Democrats won 59% of whites?  (Read 2382 times)
bagelman
Junior Chimp
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« on: January 10, 2018, 12:03:21 AM »

Since OP's question has already been answered, I decided to do a really cool math experiment: adjusting the minority party share to neutralize the white change:

Dems win 59% of whites, blacks are perfect tossup voters, all other races are >70% GOP



Dems win here 273-265 by barely defending Kansas and the Virginias. The GOP got lucky to get this close, with razor thin wins in CA, NV, MO, KY, TN, and NC.

Turning up White turnout flips CA, turning it down flips KS and gives it to the GOP.

Turning down Hispanic turnout also flips CA (faster), turning it up to 2/3rds eventually flips KS.

Turning down Asian/other turnout flips CA and NV.

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