What would the 2012 results have looked like if Democrats won 59% of whites? (user search)
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  What would the 2012 results have looked like if Democrats won 59% of whites? (search mode)
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Author Topic: What would the 2012 results have looked like if Democrats won 59% of whites?  (Read 2386 times)
Calthrina950
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« on: January 03, 2017, 02:49:31 AM »

As in the title. What would the electoral map, and the state-by-state results, of the 2012 election have looked like if Democrats had won 59% of the white vote, in addition to 93% of African-Americans, 71% of Hispanics, and 73% of Asians (these latter numbers being exactly the same as actually happened). What would the margins of victory have looked like? What would have been the Democratic percentage of the popular vote been? And which states would have stayed Republican?
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #1 on: January 03, 2017, 04:04:27 AM »

So EC: 489-49 and PV: 61-38. That seems reasonable. But why would West Virginia and Kentucky remain Republican while the rest of the South would turn Democratic? What would be Obama's closest state wins? And the same for Romney?
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #2 on: January 03, 2017, 11:18:34 AM »

Why would it be those interior Western states that would hold out the most? And what would the county-level vote for Democrats look like? Would they actually take the majority of the nation's counties, and not just be confined to metropolitan areas, suburbs, minority counties, etc?

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Calthrina950
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« Reply #3 on: January 03, 2017, 02:40:22 PM »

My questions above? How would they apply to this scenario?
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #4 on: January 03, 2017, 06:28:48 PM »

So would Democrats then obtain very high percentages in the states of the Northeast? How strong would they be in D.C.? And in which states would Republicans be the strongest? In other words, which states would be the close states of this election?
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #5 on: January 03, 2017, 07:06:37 PM »

Based upon the facts provided above, and the maps that I see, I reckon Wyoming and Utah would be won with pluralities, not absolute majorities of the vote. It's amazing how dramatically things change if one or more demographics are tinkered with.
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