Quebec General Election 2012 (4th September)

[adma]

Well, it comes as close to the "Alison Redford surprise" situation for the Grits as could have been managed, all things considered.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Deleted a couple of posts that were... less than appropriate given circumstances, and also a couple of posts replying to said posts. That sort of thing is best avoided.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well, it comes as close to the "Alison Redford surprise" situation for the Grits as could have been managed, all things considered.

Yeah they actually have more seats than 1994, which is a little surprising given everything.

[lilTommy]

The PLQ always seems to over perform expectations; pundits, particularly on CBC were saying that they were hearing that there was a large quiet PLQ supporter base in francophone quebec who were voting PLQ but didn't want anyone to know. thats explains some of the ridings were seeing the PLQ holding. If we look at some ridings though we see those PLQ wins are very close, only in the #0% range and usually the PQ/CAQ are right there only a few points away... close.

The PQ shot itself in the foot, every time the party mentions sovereignty they lose support, instead of running on a mild social-democratic platform they talk sovereignty and only french here-there-everywhere... the province looks to be past that. They "won" on an anti-charest but not at all because people wanted them. But Marois had to placate her base and she lost the election that way.

If they call an election within a year or two; we have to remember the corruption inquiry should be done AND the NPDQ should be much more organized... what effect would they have on the next election? the PQ and PLQ should be worried about them (if they can get their act together soon)

Good for QS, and they performed well (above 20%) in 3 or so more ridings in Montreal.

[Phony Moderate]

The PQ shot itself in the foot

That's an unfortunate thing to say....

[Hatman 🍁]

Apparently the gunman did end up killing someone.

[trebor204]

How close were the Liberals from forming gov't? (i.e. what were the 2 closest BQ wins over the Liberals)

If 2 seats changed hands from BQ to Lib, the result would a 52-52 tie.

[lilTommy]

oh, ummm i should have re-read that before making that comment, sorry about that

2 ridings the PQ (BQ is the federal cousin the Bloq Quebecois)
- Saint-Francois where the PQ won by about 110 votes over the Liberals;
- Charlesbourg and Vanier-Les Rivieres where the CAQ won by about 1100 and 1200 votes

... after that it takes more than a few thousand votes for the Liberals to win seats from what i can see. In fact, 10 of the CAQ wins had the PLQ second but outside Charlesbourg and Vanier-Les Rivieres none were really close.
It would be easier for the PQ to win a majority if say there was another 1-2% swing from the PLQ to the PQ.

[2952-0-0]

Political violence in Canada in this age is really disturbing.

[Poirot]

How close were the Liberals from forming gov't? (i.e. what were the 2 closest BQ wins over the Liberals)

If 2 seats changed hands from BQ to Lib, the result would a 52-52 tie.

The PQ won Abitibi-Est by 777 votes over PLQ.

[Hatman 🍁]

Ridings I got wrong:

Beauce-Sud: PLQ (I said CAQ) - CAQ was a close 2nd
Bellecasse: PLQ (I said CAQ) - CAQ was a close 2nd
Berthier: PQ (I said CAQ) - CAQ was a distant 2nd
Champlain: PQ (I said CAQ) - CAQ was a close 2nd
Chateauguay: PLQ (I said PQ) - PQ was a distant 2nd
Fabre: PLQ (I said PQ) - PQ was a distant 2nd
Huntingdon: PLQ (I said CAQ) - CAQ was a distant 3rd
Jean-Lesage: PLQ (I said CAQ) - CAQ was a close 3rd
Johnson: PQ (I said CAQ) - CAQ was a close 2nd
LaPrairie: CAQ (I said PQ) - PQ was a close 2nd
Laurier-Dorion: PLQ (I said PQ) - PQ was a distant 2nd
Lotbiniere-Frontenac: PLQ (I said CAQ) - CAQ was a distant 2nd
Maskinonge: PLQ (I said CAQ) - CAQ was a close 2nd
Megantic: PLQ (I said PQ) - PQ was a close 2nd
Mille-Isles: PLQ (I said PQ) - PQ was a distant 2nd
Mirabel: PQ (I said CAQ) - CAQ was a distant 2nd
Montarville: CAQ (I said PQ) - PQ was a close 2nd
Papineau: PLQ (I said PQ) - PQ was a close 2nd
Richmond: PLQ (I said PQ) - PQ was a close 2nd
Riviere-du-Loup-Temiscouata: PLQ (I said PQ) - PQ was a distant 2nd
Saint-Henri-Sainte-Anne: PLQ (I said PQ) - PQ was a distant 2nd
Saint-Jerome: CAQ (I said PQ) - PQ was a close 2nd
Trois-Rivieres: PLQ (I said PQ) - PQ was a close 2nd
Vimont: PLQ (I said PQ) - PQ was a distant 2nd

24 wrong (101/125 = 81%)  not the best, but at least it's not at Alberta levels.

[Insula Dei]

So, should we expect another election soon?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The now traditional winning margin map. Use that well known magical spell to make it bigger.

[RogueBeaver]

Charest will hold a press conference in about 45 minutes announcing his resignation of the Liberal leadership and retirement from public life.


http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/elections-quebec-2012/201209/05/01-4571322-jean-charest-annoncera-son-depart-a-16h.php


My thoughts:

1) There was a Shy Grit factor as usual.

2) Both Charest and Marois had a lot of trouble threading the base-swing needle. Their excessive pandering to the bases turned off swing voters but Marois kept barely enough swingers to win.


3) CAQ pulled a lot of votes away from both parties but probably hurt the PQ more than the Liberals. QS also hurt the PQ. At some point the PQ might have to negotiate about rejoining the fold.

4) The result was in line with voter opinion: Charest out but not rolling the dice on a PQ majority. At least not in the first term.

[Hatman 🍁]

So, should we expect another election soon?

Probably. I can't see this lasting very long.

Does anyone know who the front runners are for the PLQ leadership?

[RogueBeaver]

Fournier is probably the frontrunner if he wants it. Maybe Coderre switches from the mayoral race but I doubt that. Bachand is too old and there's no one else.

Marois has said she'll call an early election, perhaps within a year. Wait for Charbonneau to report and decent polling, then pull the trigger.

[Hatman 🍁]

Fournier is probably the frontrunner if he wants it. Maybe Coderre switches from the mayoral race but I doubt that. Bachand is too old and there's no one else.

Marois has said she'll call an early election, perhaps within a year. Wait for Charbonneau to report and decent polling, then pull the trigger.

Wow. She didn't waste any time.

[You kip if you want to...]

Don't image this lasting long on those numbers.

[RogueBeaver]

Charest just announced his resignation as Liberal leader and retirement from public life. His resignation will take effect when Marois and her Cabinet are sworn in 10-15 days from now.

[RogueBeaver]

We're going to get reaction from Rae in a few minutes, presumably Mulcair and Harper will follow.

[MaxQue]

Liberal was 887 votes away from government.
PQ was 6119 votes away from majority.

[RogueBeaver]

Like in 1960 when Lesage won government by 400 votes.

[Nhoj]

Charest just announced his resignation as Liberal leader and retirement from public life. His resignation will take effect when Marois and her Cabinet are sworn in 10-15 days from now.

Who is likely to succeed charest as Quebec Liberal leader?

[RogueBeaver]

Charest just announced his resignation as Liberal leader and retirement from public life. His resignation will take effect when Marois and her Cabinet are sworn in 10-15 days from now.

Who is likely to succeed charest as Quebec Liberal leader?

Depends who runs. I doubt anyone outside caucus. The strongest candidate would probably be the outgoing justice minister Jean-Marc Fournier, maybe outgoing finance minister Raymond Bachand (who's 65).  Given that there's another election as soon as Charbonneau does Marois' work for her and quite possibly giving her a majority... who knows?

[trebor204]

How close were the Liberals from forming gov't? (i.e. what were the 2 closest BQ wins over the Liberals)

If 2 seats changed hands from BQ to Lib, the result would a 52-52 tie.

Sorry about I meant to say PQ