Was Obama beatable in 2012?

[President Johnson]

Although it initially seemed like Obama is vulnerable, he won the election fair an square and the tipping point state wasn't as close as in 2016 and 2020. Was Obama actually beatable in 2012? Of course that only involves at least potential other Republican candidates that could have won the nomination while the election takes place in the same political climate as it did.

[Ashley Biden's Diary]

Probably not as the country wasn't in the mood to give the GOP another try just 4 years after Bush.

[Progressive Pessimist]

It's doubtful.

In hindsight, 2020 was a pretty massive win for him in spite of the popular vote swinging right. Obama's closest state being Florida, which wasn't even necessary to win is a testament to how much of a once-in-a-lifetime candidate and campaigner he was.

His wins in the Midwestern and Rust Belt states, especially, look unrepeatable right now for any national Democrat. There was way too much that needed to be overcome by any Republican candidate to beat him in either election.

[wnwnwn]

Maybe with a different candidate. A candidate that could play the anti corporate welfare side of the Tea Party without getting full into the Paul Ryan side of it.
Huckabee / Kasich?

[Fuzzy Bear]

Maybe with a different candidate. A candidate that could play the anti corporate welfare side of the Tea Party without getting full into the Paul Ryan side of it.
Huckabee / Kasich?

This.

Obama was able to convince people that he made things "less worse" during the recession and the slow recovery. 

[Sir Mohamed]

It's doubtful.

In hindsight, 2020 was a pretty massive win for him in spite of the popular vote swinging right. Obama's closest state being Florida, which wasn't even necessary to win is a testament to how much of a once-in-a-lifetime candidate and campaigner he was.

His wins in the Midwestern and Rust Belt states, especially, look unrepeatable right now for any national Democrat. There was way too much that needed to be overcome by any Republican candidate to beat him in either election.

You mean 2012?

Yup, I agree that under the actual conditions, Obama was probably not going to lose. Not the with the tableau of candidates available.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I think he was beatable, but Rs ran the wrong campaign against him. By late October after Sandy it was pretty much over. Romney narrowly won the persuassion argument, but Obama was able to mobilize his voters where it mattered. Obama's win in Ohio 2012, is arguably the most impressive win of the 21st century even more so than Trump cracking the blue wall.

[President Johnson]

I think he was beatable, but Rs ran the wrong campaign against him. By late October after Sandy it was pretty much over. Romney narrowly won the persuassion argument, but Obama was able to mobilize his voters where it mattered. Obama's win in Ohio 2012, is arguably the most impressive win of the 21st century even more so than Trump cracking the blue wall.

It's really interesting Ohio is seen in that way from today's perspective. I remember back in 2012 it was more of "the ultimate battleground" and Obama winning not a huge surprise.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I think he was beatable, but Rs ran the wrong campaign against him. By late October after Sandy it was pretty much over. Romney narrowly won the persuassion argument, but Obama was able to mobilize his voters where it mattered. Obama's win in Ohio 2012, is arguably the most impressive win of the 21st century even more so than Trump cracking the blue wall.

It's really interesting Ohio is seen in that way from today's perspective. I remember back in 2012 it was more of "the ultimate battleground" and Obama winning not a huge surprise.

Its really how Ohio swung compared to every other rust belt swing state.
Michigan->R+6
Wisconsin->R+8
Illinois->R+9
Indiana->R+10
Pennsylvania->R+6

Yet Ohio only swung to Romney by 1.5 and even trended slightly left.

[Progressive Pessimist]

It's doubtful.

In hindsight, 2020 was a pretty massive win for him in spite of the popular vote swinging right. Obama's closest state being Florida, which wasn't even necessary to win is a testament to how much of a once-in-a-lifetime candidate and campaigner he was.

His wins in the Midwestern and Rust Belt states, especially, look unrepeatable right now for any national Democrat. There was way too much that needed to be overcome by any Republican candidate to beat him in either election.

You mean 2012?

Yup, I agree that under the actual conditions, Obama was probably not going to lose. Not the with the tableau of candidates available.

Yes, whoops!

[Mr. Smith]

Yes, but just like Bush '04, the out party just didn't run the right sort of campaign, nor was there some seriously forced error from the incumbent...besides maybe dumping NC.

[Gracile]

Romney was one of the worst-equipped candidates the GOP could have put against Obama given the state of the country.

[sg0508]

Yes, until the "46 million" comment or whatever it was (true or not) came out from Romney, which cemented him as a top 1% elitist in the eyes of voters. That confirmed in the eyes of swing voters that the Obama team's pitch of just that was correct.

After that comment, it was over.

[Vice President Christian Man]

I think he was beatable, but Rs ran the wrong campaign against him. By late October after Sandy it was pretty much over. Romney narrowly won the persuassion argument, but Obama was able to mobilize his voters where it mattered. Obama's win in Ohio 2012, is arguably the most impressive win of the 21st century even more so than Trump cracking the blue wall.

It's really interesting Ohio is seen in that way from today's perspective. I remember back in 2012 it was more of "the ultimate battleground" and Obama winning not a huge surprise.

Its really how Ohio swung compared to every other rust belt swing state.
Michigan->R+6
Wisconsin->R+8
Illinois->R+9
Indiana->R+10
Pennsylvania->R+6

Yet Ohio only swung to Romney by 1.5 and even trended slightly left.

I think that the auto bailouts helped him combined with Romney being a terrible fit for that state.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

I think Chris Christie with a redder than red social conservative running mate maybe could have done it. Somebody who could talk dirty, sling mud, harness anger…

[Dr. Cynic]

Yeah, he was vulnerable, but I don't think any of the Republican candidates that were actually in that race could've done it.

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

If the election was held one year prior or one year after (so in 2011 or 2013), Obama would have lost.

Economy turned around at the right moment in 2012. Obama’s job approvals reflect this theory.

[Mr. Smith]

If the election was held one year prior or one year after (so in 2011 or 2013), Obama would have lost.

Economy turned around at the right moment in 2012. Obama’s job approvals reflect this theory.

In 2013, yes.

In 2011, he knocked off Osama bin Laden, he'd have played that to hilt even more.

[Pres Mike]

Probably not. Romney could have won the popular vote but still lost the electoral college. He would have needed a 5 point swing to win the electorally college. Running a Bain Capital CEO during the Great Recession was not wise

The only Republican who could have won in 2012 was Chris Christie and even than its unlikely and depends on him being the nominee during Sandy.

[dw93]

Yes. The recovery from the Great Recession was weak, unemployment was higher in November 2012 than it was in November 2008, and Obama was well past the boost he got from knocking off Bin Laden in May of 2011. If the Republicans had more to offer than tax cuts for the rich, austerity, and repealing Obamacare without an alternative, Obama would've lost, abet narrowly as the GOP had no one to match Obama's charisma and I think enough of the electorate would've been reluctant to hand the GOP a victory with the Bush years still fresh to keep things close.