Pew Research: Sweden might be 30% Muslim by 2050

[Tender Branson]

I think Tender glanced  upon an important point (although it was surrounded by hyperbole): education. The Bosniak refugees that came from the former Yugoslavia (a country with universal education) have acclimatised very well:

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2017/02/20/integration-bosnian-refugees/

In areas like Turkey, Pakistan and the Maghreb, differing education gives more of a caste (or maybe urban/provinical is a better term for it) dynamic. The "problem" refugees are those coming from more backwater areas - there is a huge difference between the Mirpuri diaspora of Pakistanis which built the ranks of the infamous rape gangs and the Sindhis and Punjabi Pakistanis which are considered one of the more successful ethnic groups in Britain, a lot of them being merchants expelled from Uganda back in the day). Turks and Kurds are the same, although there is more of an odd political dynamic there due to the influence of personality cults (Erdogan, Ocalan, Kemal, Gulen).

Finally the least integrated groups are those countries where the education policies have long been smashed: Somalians and Afghans.

Correct.

It is not our duty to educate, employ and integrate millions of these people here in Europe.

They need to get up on their own feet and set up measures to achieve it on their own.

The first thing that needs to be done is to control their fast population growth.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Malthusian thought is bollocks.

As is cultural relativism. The idea that we should abandon people to poverty because that is their culture is deeply distasteful.

[DavidB.]

Malthusian thought is bollocks.

As is cultural relativism. The idea that we should abandon people to poverty because that is their culture is deeply distasteful.

Who says that? Tender just says they should lift themselves up out of poverty and opposes mass immigration to Europe. Nobody says we should abandon people to poverty.

[Tender Branson]

Malthusian thought is bollocks.

As is cultural relativism. The idea that we should abandon people to poverty because that is their culture is deeply distasteful.

Yet it is the root of all problems.

If we look at Niger, Mali, Somalia etc. in the infertile Sahel zone, the population is exploding by 3-4% there each year. But there are no resources there. Yet every woman (they are not educated at all there) has 5-10 children. It's a horror scenario for the next century and it will only increase the burden on Europe once these people get access to smartphones and internet and the apparent milk and honey that we have here in Europe ...

Africa and the Middle East definitely need a one-child-policy, but every (Muslim) leader there opposes it and even wants more kids for Muslim domination (see Erdogan's comments on it).

[Zinneke]

You're the one telling us Israel is a perfect democracy. I'm asking you what the percentage of Muslims is there. Simple question.

[citation needed]

but surely you are too smart to believe that what has happened in Russia or even Turkey is possible in Israel. Surely you know even better than I that Israel is a mature democracy in which the population would not accept a crackdown on basic democratic rights and in which the system has enough checks and balances to prevent this from happening. Which does not mean that what Netanyahu is doing now is acceptable, of course, or that citizens should close their eyes for it -- on the contrary.

And where do I say that Israel is a perfect democracy? That's right -- nowhere, because it isn't and I would never claim it is. Still better than the Belgian one though...

You certainly seem to think it is extremely resilient and have regularly upheld it as an example. I'm simply asking you how Israel maintains such high standard (that I am not necessarily challenging) with such a large muslim minority. It could come in handy given we are apparently being invaded by "the Muslims"

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What a poor ad hominem this is. Not all of us are blindly loyal to our government policies; institutions and received identities the same way you are.

I mean, if you’re saying that these figures are overblown, you must be expecting Europe to severely restrict migration, particularly from refugees, as even the medium scenario assumes no future refugee crisis, when in reality war and increasingly climate change can be expected create large numbers of refugees in the Middle East and North Africa.

Exactly. Nobody in this thread is actually disputing these figures with arguments. Please, European lefties, ask yourselves whether you will be as free as you are right now in a country that is not 5% but 15-30% Muslim (and perhaps 50% or more in 2100). And if you are, will working-class people, or women, or gay people in your country be?

First tell us

1/ the proportion of Muslims in Israel
2/ which parts of Israel are under Sharia law, and which aspects of Israeli democracy are under threat because of point number 1.

Then I'm sure we'd love to hear about horseshoe theory again.

You're bringing up Israel as an example that a large Muslim population does not lead to problems? Love it! Hope you will continue to refer to this lovely country in a positive way. Please also continue your obsessive streak of always bringing up Israel whenever I'm discussing completely unrelated issues.

Didn't answer the questions.

You're the one telling us Israel is a perfect democracy. I'm asking you what the percentage of Muslims is there. Simple question.

But completely irrelevant to a European context, so please take it elsewhere.

His argument is that a permanent Muslim minority of around 20-30% would be a threat to our democracy.

Regardless of the number, I am asking him to demonstrate how a democracy he upholds as an example is struggling to maintain its values against the Muslim minority there?

I'm rather asking you my counter-question (egg/chicken or chicken/egg ?), before we can even debate your question ...

Why do you mass-immigration fetishists

I just told you that the issue of migration is one of straining public services and housing. That should indicate I am not in favour of "inviting the entire third world in my back garden", as you nutjobs regularly accuse people from the left of suggesting.

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I'm asking you to change the unit of analysis. As Crabcake says; it is often not an issue of religious identity but of education. If you frame it as a religious identity issue you will create political Islamism rather than actually fight it.

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 Irish people in the UK were considered culture hostile too. And Congolese in Belgium. Yugos in Germany. I could go on.

[Tender Branson]

Who says that? Tender just says they should lift themselves up out of poverty and opposes mass immigration to Europe. Nobody says we should abandon people to poverty.

Correct.

We should definitely do our part with development aid, but we also need to say: hey, it's our hard-working taxpayers who are sending this money to Africa and the Middle-East and not ignore them either (because they will sour).

But the culture of having 5-10 kids per family in Africa and the Middle-East needs to be crushed. And along it the backwards thinking of Muslim leaders who favour big families. This talk by Erdogan and Co. makes my neck hair stand up. They want to remain in poverty by breeding like hares ? And we should let these cultures immigrate to Europe ? No thanks.

[Lord Halifax]

The problem is that values like open mindedness and the sanctity of the individual are mostly absent in Middle Eastern and West Asian cultures. Conflict avoidance, tolerance and passivity are seen as expressions of weakness and submission. In the Middle Eastern macho culture negotiation and compromise with those who are perceived as weaker isn't a thing. Most Western Europeans aren't geared to tackle the oppressive intolerance and aggressive behavior many Middle Eastern men display. The exact relationship between Islam and this toxic masculinity may be complex, but they clearly reinforce each other to some degree.

[seb_pard]

Surinam is (according to Wikipedia) 13.9% muslim (48.4% christian and 22.9% hindus), how are religion relations there? I really have no idea about that country

[Antonio the Sixth]

So what?

[Santander]

Surinam is (according to Wikipedia) 13.9% muslim (48.4% christian and 22.9% hindus), how are religion relations there? I really have no idea about that country

There is a big difference between settled populations of Indian and Indonesian Muslims and recently-arrived Middle Eastern Muslim immigrants and their poorly-assimilated children, so it is not really a worthwhile comparison. However, there is supposed to be relatively little religious tension in Suriname.

[Helsinkian]

So what?

You guys really need to agree on a single argument. Right now some of you are saying "Don't be a conspiracy theorist, Sweden will never be run by sharia!", while others are saying "OK, so Sweden will be run by sharia, but you as a dhimmi can always just pay the jizya, so what's the problem, bigot?"

[Mazda]

You guys really need to agree on a single argument. Right now some of you are saying "Don't be a conspiracy theorist, Sweden will never be run by sharia!", while others are saying "OK, so Sweden will be run by sharia, but you as a dhimmi can always just pay the jizya, so what's the problem, bigot?"

Or, here's a thought, it could be one complete argument: "This idea of Sweden becoming 30% Muslim is very unlikely and based on dodgy data, but even if it were true, this wouldn't actually be anywhere near as big a problem as you think it is."

I mean, by the time you get to the third generation, you're about as 'integrated' as any native person.

[Helsinkian]

Yeah, no. Look at Molenbeek in Brussels, Rosengård in Malmö, Rinkeby in Stockholm. These are communities where almost all inhabitants are Muslims. They have no need to integrate to the society when they can live in an Arabic-speaking bubble separated from the society.

[Green Line]

You guys really need to agree on a single argument. Right now some of you are saying "Don't be a conspiracy theorist, Sweden will never be run by sharia!", while others are saying "OK, so Sweden will be run by sharia, but you as a dhimmi can always just pay the jizya, so what's the problem, bigot?"

Or, here's a thought, it could be one complete argument: "This idea of Sweden becoming 30% Muslim is very unlikely and based on dodgy data, but even if it were true, this wouldn't actually be anywhere near as big a problem as you think it is."

I mean, by the time you get to the third generation, you're about as 'integrated' as any native person.

As has already been stated, NONE of those things are true.  3rd generation muslims are LESS integrated.  It's also not dodgy numbers.  It is taking the current path and extending it to 2050.  Thats not dodgy, its LIKELY.

[Famous Mortimer]

You guys really need to agree on a single argument. Right now some of you are saying "Don't be a conspiracy theorist, Sweden will never be run by sharia!", while others are saying "OK, so Sweden will be run by sharia, but you as a dhimmi can always just pay the jizya, so what's the problem, bigot?"

Or, here's a thought, it could be one complete argument: "This idea of Sweden becoming 30% Muslim is very unlikely and based on dodgy data, but even if it were true, this wouldn't actually be anywhere near as big a problem as you think it is."

I mean, by the time you get to the third generation, you're about as 'integrated' as any native person.

It's telling that even apologists for Muslim immigration use as a defense "don't worry, their children won't be THAT Muslim" implying that they realize Islam is a problem.

Anyway, with regards to your actual arguments about integration, as the other immigration apologists have pointed out, trends do not continue indefinitely.

You can not assume that millions of people living in self contained ghettos will assimilate to European culture at the same rate as people who came 30 years ago and were completely immersed in a 90% ethnic European population on arrival.

[Famous Mortimer]

Do these projects taken into account family reunification?

[Famous Mortimer]

You're the one telling us Israel is a perfect democracy. I'm asking you what the percentage of Muslims is there. Simple question.

[citation needed]

but surely you are too smart to believe that what has happened in Russia or even Turkey is possible in Israel. Surely you know even better than I that Israel is a mature democracy in which the population would not accept a crackdown on basic democratic rights and in which the system has enough checks and balances to prevent this from happening. Which does not mean that what Netanyahu is doing now is acceptable, of course, or that citizens should close their eyes for it -- on the contrary.

And where do I say that Israel is a perfect democracy? That's right -- nowhere, because it isn't and I would never claim it is. Still better than the Belgian one though...

You certainly seem to think it is extremely resilient and have regularly upheld it as an example. I'm simply asking you how Israel maintains such high standard (that I am not necessarily challenging) with such a large muslim minority. It could come in handy given we are apparently being invaded by "the Muslims"

You must be logged in to read this quote.

What a poor ad hominem this is. Not all of us are blindly loyal to our government policies; institutions and received identities the same way you are.

I mean, if you’re saying that these figures are overblown, you must be expecting Europe to severely restrict migration, particularly from refugees, as even the medium scenario assumes no future refugee crisis, when in reality war and increasingly climate change can be expected create large numbers of refugees in the Middle East and North Africa.

Exactly. Nobody in this thread is actually disputing these figures with arguments. Please, European lefties, ask yourselves whether you will be as free as you are right now in a country that is not 5% but 15-30% Muslim (and perhaps 50% or more in 2100). And if you are, will working-class people, or women, or gay people in your country be?

First tell us

1/ the proportion of Muslims in Israel
2/ which parts of Israel are under Sharia law, and which aspects of Israeli democracy are under threat because of point number 1.

Then I'm sure we'd love to hear about horseshoe theory again.

You're bringing up Israel as an example that a large Muslim population does not lead to problems? Love it! Hope you will continue to refer to this lovely country in a positive way. Please also continue your obsessive streak of always bringing up Israel whenever I'm discussing completely unrelated issues.

Didn't answer the questions.

You're the one telling us Israel is a perfect democracy. I'm asking you what the percentage of Muslims is there. Simple question.

But completely irrelevant to a European context, so please take it elsewhere.

His argument is that a permanent Muslim minority of around 20-30% would be a threat to our democracy.

Regardless of the number, I am asking him to demonstrate how a democracy he upholds as an example is struggling to maintain its values against the Muslim minority there?

I'm rather asking you my counter-question (egg/chicken or chicken/egg ?), before we can even debate your question ...

Why do you mass-immigration fetishists

I just told you that the issue of migration is one of straining public services and housing. That should indicate I am not in favour of "inviting the entire third world in my back garden", as you nutjobs regularly accuse people from the left of suggesting.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I'm asking you to change the unit of analysis. As Crabcake says; it is often not an issue of religious identity but of education. If you frame it as a religious identity issue you will create political Islamism rather than actually fight it.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

 Irish people in the UK were considered culture hostile too. And Congolese in Belgium. Yugos in Germany. I could go on.

Israeli Arabs are constantly agitating to open the borders to millions of their co-ethnics who would demographically swamp the country. The only reason this doesn't happen is because the current government imposes discriminatory immigration laws and has declared the vast majority of popular Arab political discourse to be illegal and punishable by prison.

So yes, Israel is a good parallel to draw. Europe could definitely survive in more or less its current economic and cultural shape with a 20% Muslim population if it committed to only allowing white people to immigrate and outlawing Muslim political thought.

[Boston Bread]

Do these projects taken into account family reunification?

The medium scenario assumes the current non-refugee intake continues, so I presume both the medium and high scenarios take it into account.
If family reunification in Europe is like Canada (where there’s a cap of 30000 or so spots available out of 300000 immigrants per year), it won’t be that significant.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

You guys really need to agree on a single argument. Right now some of you are saying "Don't be a conspiracy theorist, Sweden will never be run by sharia!", while others are saying "OK, so Sweden will be run by sharia, but you as a dhimmi can always just pay the jizya, so what's the problem, bigot?"

Or, here's a thought, it could be one complete argument: "This idea of Sweden becoming 30% Muslim is very unlikely and based on dodgy data, but even if it were true, this wouldn't actually be anywhere near as big a problem as you think it is."

I mean, by the time you get to the third generation, you're about as 'integrated' as any native person.

It's telling that even apologists for Muslim immigration use as a defense "don't worry, their children won't be THAT Muslim" implying that they realize Islam is a problem.

Anyway, with regards to your actual arguments about integration, as the other immigration apologists have pointed out, trends do not continue indefinitely.

You can not assume that millions of people living in self contained ghettos will assimilate to European culture at the same rate as people who came 30 years ago and were completely immersed in a 90% ethnic European population on arrival.

As I said, the best way to assimilate the Muslims is to eliminate the Muslim part of the demographic and bring them to Jesus Christ.

[Tender Branson]

You guys really need to agree on a single argument. Right now some of you are saying "Don't be a conspiracy theorist, Sweden will never be run by sharia!", while others are saying "OK, so Sweden will be run by sharia, but you as a dhimmi can always just pay the jizya, so what's the problem, bigot?"

Or, here's a thought, it could be one complete argument: "This idea of Sweden becoming 30% Muslim is very unlikely and based on dodgy data, but even if it were true, this wouldn't actually be anywhere near as big a problem as you think it is."

I mean, by the time you get to the third generation, you're about as 'integrated' as any native person.

It's telling that even apologists for Muslim immigration use as a defense "don't worry, their children won't be THAT Muslim" implying that they realize Islam is a problem.

Anyway, with regards to your actual arguments about integration, as the other immigration apologists have pointed out, trends do not continue indefinitely.

You can not assume that millions of people living in self contained ghettos will assimilate to European culture at the same rate as people who came 30 years ago and were completely immersed in a 90% ethnic European population on arrival.

As I said, the best way to assimilate the Muslims is to eliminate the Muslim part of the demographic and bring them to Jesus Christ.

You do understand though that for a Muslim converting to Christianity is basically a death sentence ?

Imagine a Muslim girl playing with the thought of marrying a Christian ...

She would be slaughtered by her own family for treason.

That's why your idea is nuts.

And it's also a reason why the Muslim population will rise fast over the long turn, even without further immigration.

Because they breed faster and are much more radical than current Christians who have no concerns laying off their faith.

[DavidB.]

You guys really need to agree on a single argument. Right now some of you are saying "Don't be a conspiracy theorist, Sweden will never be run by sharia!", while others are saying "OK, so Sweden will be run by sharia, but you as a dhimmi can always just pay the jizya, so what's the problem, bigot?"

I mean, by the time you get to the third generation, you're about as 'integrated' as any native person.

This is demonstrably false? See France, Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany, Austria...

[parochial boy]

Imagine a Muslim girl playing with the thought of marrying a Christian ...

She would be slaughtered by her own family for treason.

Umm, it's really not uncommon for a Muslim girl to marry a non-Muslim.

And to add a couple of points to that - the vast majority of European Muslims do not live in "90% Muslim ghettos" as, for a start, even places like Molenbeek or Bobigny have a lot more white people than people like to expect - and there are a lot of very well integrated, middle class, yadda yadda Muslims across Europe. You just don't notice those people, because the Arab guy wearing a suit at the office or on the metro looks like just about any Mediterranean/Southern European.

[Zinneke]

More to the point, studies show that even 3rd generation immigrants are discriminated against in Europe. If we maybe stopped caring so much about identity and more about capability, there'd be more "Arab guys in suits", as you put it parochial.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

You guys really need to agree on a single argument. Right now some of you are saying "Don't be a conspiracy theorist, Sweden will never be run by sharia!", while others are saying "OK, so Sweden will be run by sharia, but you as a dhimmi can always just pay the jizya, so what's the problem, bigot?"

Or, here's a thought, it could be one complete argument: "This idea of Sweden becoming 30% Muslim is very unlikely and based on dodgy data, but even if it were true, this wouldn't actually be anywhere near as big a problem as you think it is."

I mean, by the time you get to the third generation, you're about as 'integrated' as any native person.

It's telling that even apologists for Muslim immigration use as a defense "don't worry, their children won't be THAT Muslim" implying that they realize Islam is a problem.

Anyway, with regards to your actual arguments about integration, as the other immigration apologists have pointed out, trends do not continue indefinitely.

You can not assume that millions of people living in self contained ghettos will assimilate to European culture at the same rate as people who came 30 years ago and were completely immersed in a 90% ethnic European population on arrival.

As I said, the best way to assimilate the Muslims is to eliminate the Muslim part of the demographic and bring them to Jesus Christ.

You do understand though that for a Muslim converting to Christianity is basically a death sentence ?

Imagine a Muslim girl playing with the thought of marrying a Christian ...

She would be slaughtered by her own family for treason.

That's why your idea is nuts.

And it's also a reason why the Muslim population will rise fast over the long turn, even without further immigration.

Because they breed faster and are much more radical than current Christians who have no concerns laying off their faith.

The Iranian-American woman who spoke at my church a few weeks ago who converted to Christianity, married a Christian and is by all accounts living a rather comfortable and open lifestyle is at high risk of being killed?

[Tender Branson]

You guys really need to agree on a single argument. Right now some of you are saying "Don't be a conspiracy theorist, Sweden will never be run by sharia!", while others are saying "OK, so Sweden will be run by sharia, but you as a dhimmi can always just pay the jizya, so what's the problem, bigot?"

Or, here's a thought, it could be one complete argument: "This idea of Sweden becoming 30% Muslim is very unlikely and based on dodgy data, but even if it were true, this wouldn't actually be anywhere near as big a problem as you think it is."

I mean, by the time you get to the third generation, you're about as 'integrated' as any native person.

It's telling that even apologists for Muslim immigration use as a defense "don't worry, their children won't be THAT Muslim" implying that they realize Islam is a problem.

Anyway, with regards to your actual arguments about integration, as the other immigration apologists have pointed out, trends do not continue indefinitely.

You can not assume that millions of people living in self contained ghettos will assimilate to European culture at the same rate as people who came 30 years ago and were completely immersed in a 90% ethnic European population on arrival.

As I said, the best way to assimilate the Muslims is to eliminate the Muslim part of the demographic and bring them to Jesus Christ.

You do understand though that for a Muslim converting to Christianity is basically a death sentence ?

Imagine a Muslim girl playing with the thought of marrying a Christian ...

She would be slaughtered by her own family for treason.

That's why your idea is nuts.

And it's also a reason why the Muslim population will rise fast over the long turn, even without further immigration.

Because they breed faster and are much more radical than current Christians who have no concerns laying off their faith.

The Iranian-American woman who spoke at my church a few weeks ago who converted to Christianity, married a Christian and is by all accounts living a rather comfortable and open lifestyle is at high risk of being killed?

You, like parochial boy, are referring to the 1-5% of the more liberal Muslim women who have the guts to speak their own mind.

The other 95-99% are the oppressed and brainwashed majority who are living under the current threat of honour killings by their families, if they abandon Islam ...

A recent study (The Austrian Integration Barometer by the Austrian Integration Fund) here is backing up my claim, considering 99% of the Somali and 95% of the Afghan/Pakistani immigrants in Austria consider abandoning Islamic Faith a deadly sin.