Predict Maine
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Poll
Question: ^
#1
Collins +5		  
#2
Collins +4		  
#3
Collins +3		  
#4
Collins +2		  
#5
Collins +1		  
#6
Collins +<1		  
#7
Gideon +<1		  
#8
Gideon +1		  
#9
Gideon +2		  
#10
Gideon +3		  
#11
Gideon +4		  
#12
Gideon +5		  
#13
Gideon +6		  
#14
Gideon +7		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 93

Author Topic: Predict Maine  (Read 1994 times)
VAR
VARepublican
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« on: October 21, 2020, 02:27:38 PM »
Well?
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Gracile
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1 on: October 21, 2020, 02:29:50 PM »
Gideon +3 after RCV (I think she gets a narrow plurality on the first round).
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #2 on: October 21, 2020, 02:37:58 PM »
Gideon + 6. Partisanship will win out.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #3 on: October 21, 2020, 03:10:35 PM »
I have a feeling it’ll be a ‘surprise’ that defies conventional wisdom either way (i.e., either Collins ekes out another win OR barely outperforms Trump).
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Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver
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« Reply #4 on: October 21, 2020, 03:15:12 PM »
If Gideon loses I'm going to lose it
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Xing
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« Reply #5 on: October 21, 2020, 05:30:00 PM »
Gideon +3-4 after RCV.
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Kuumo
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« Reply #6 on: October 21, 2020, 06:45:59 PM »
Gideon +3 after ranked choice voting.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #7 on: October 22, 2020, 11:13:48 AM »
We haven't seen any ME polls lately which is sad, Gideon by 5
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #8 on: October 22, 2020, 02:17:09 PM »
Gideon by more than +7, I think. It won't be close. Maybe Biden+15 and Gideon+10.
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Suburbia
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« Reply #9 on: October 22, 2020, 07:31:22 PM »
Gideon + 6
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ShadowRocket
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« Reply #10 on: October 24, 2020, 02:16:25 PM »
Gideon by 5%. Maybe its wishful thinking but I could see Collins losing by fairly surprising margin.
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andjey
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« Reply #11 on: October 24, 2020, 02:16:56 PM »
Gideon +6
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Harry
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« Reply #12 on: October 24, 2020, 02:45:59 PM »
Gideon by 5 or more. There was nothing Collins could have done to win this one.
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S019
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« Reply #13 on: October 24, 2020, 03:08:30 PM »
Gideon+3
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #14 on: October 24, 2020, 03:22:04 PM »
Gideon +4.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #15 on: October 24, 2020, 06:31:58 PM »
Gideon, probably by between 3 and 7 percentage points. She'll probably garner a plurality in the first round and will gain a comfortable majority in the second round with the addition of Lisa Savage's supporters.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #16 on: October 24, 2020, 09:58:31 PM »
Gideon +3 after all third-place and below votes are allocated.
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TML
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« Reply #17 on: October 24, 2020, 10:15:43 PM »
Quote from: 2,868,686 on October 24, 2020, 02:45:59 PM
There was nothing Collins could have done to win this one.

Not necessarily. What took a toll on Collins’ popularity was her refusal/unwillingness to contradict Trump on important matters, including (1) her vote for the Trump tax cuts, (2) her Kavanaugh vote, and (3) her impeachment vote. If she stood up to Trump more often on issues like these, her approval rating would probably still be above water, which would have put her in good position to win re-election.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #18 on: October 24, 2020, 10:41:40 PM »
Quote from: TML on October 24, 2020, 10:15:43 PM
Quote from: 2,868,686 on October 24, 2020, 02:45:59 PM
There was nothing Collins could have done to win this one.

Not necessarily. What took a toll on Collins’ popularity was her refusal/unwillingness to contradict Trump on important matters, including (1) her vote for the Trump tax cuts, (2) her Kavanaugh vote, and (3) her impeachment vote. If she stood up to Trump more often on issues like these, her approval rating would probably still be above water, which would have put her in good position to win re-election.

It’s almost as if she (rightly) thought that voting against Kavanaugh and especially for impeachment would sink her base support way more than it would net her any additional D-leaning crossover voters.

People are kidding themselves if they think her approval would be "above water" right now or that she’d get more than 8-10% of Biden voters to split their ticket for her (especially with Senate control at stake) if she had just voted to impeach Trump. Her approval rating would be even worse than it is right now if she had done that.
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Anti Democrat Democrat Club
SawxDem
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« Reply #19 on: October 24, 2020, 11:06:08 PM »
Gideon+9.
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MillennialModerate
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« Reply #20 on: October 25, 2020, 07:11:03 AM »
Gideon +3
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Lambsbread
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« Reply #21 on: October 25, 2020, 10:06:53 AM »
Quote from: gracile on October 21, 2020, 02:29:50 PM
Gideon +3 after RCV (I think she gets a narrow plurality on the first round).

My exact answer as well.
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Senator Incitatus
AMB1996
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« Reply #22 on: October 25, 2020, 10:40:20 AM »
Gideon +5
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indietraveler
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« Reply #23 on: October 25, 2020, 02:03:08 PM »
I think Gideon wins comfortably here. +5 but wouldn't be surprised if it was more.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #24 on: October 25, 2020, 02:37:26 PM »
« Edited: October 25, 2020, 02:58:55 PM by President Johnson »
Sara Gideon wins 50.1% to 46.7%
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