Will Republicans in New York lose their State Senate majority

[Mr.Phips]

Yes.  Republicans won every possible seat that they could and will likely lose Grisanti's seat and probably the seventh district on Long Island where Craig Thompson will probably run again. 

[Mr.Phips]

The only way would be to build up in Westchester but Oppenheimer isn't going anywhere and that county has shifted so much to the Democrats that its probably impossible. They could try dicing up Albany but that would likely just cause a dummymander situation. Grisanti could side with the Democrats on redistricting, unless he feels loyalty to the Republicans. The four IDs also hurt the Democrats in the Senate now, but no way that'll last.

Oppenheimer almost lost her last election and is in her 70s.  She could be out of office soon, by the ballot box or retirement.

It is possible to create a more Republican-friendly State Senate district in central/southern Westchester if Republicans dared to.  It would have to take up Eastchester, Mount Pleasant and perhaps part Harrison while minimizing territory in more Democratic-leaning areas like Scarsdale, Greenburgh and White Plains on the way to consolidating those two or three towns in one district.  In the 2000 redistricting, Republicans put Eastchester and Mount Pleasant in two districts to keep two Republican incumbents in power.  Both seats are currently represented by Democrats, so that's no longer necessary.

Oppenheimer survived the worst year for Democrats since 1894.  Cuomo will veto any redistricting plan that tries to hurt her.  Obama took 64% in that district, making it D+11.  She wont lose and will probably be strengthened further in redistricting(trading some Westchester territory with Ball). 

You are the same person who said that Andrea Stewart-Cousins was vulnerable and she won by double digits in what will probably be the worst Democratic year in our lifetimes. 

[Mr.Phips]

The only way would be to build up in Westchester but Oppenheimer isn't going anywhere and that county has shifted so much to the Democrats that its probably impossible. They could try dicing up Albany but that would likely just cause a dummymander situation. Grisanti could side with the Democrats on redistricting, unless he feels loyalty to the Republicans. The four IDs also hurt the Democrats in the Senate now, but no way that'll last.

Oppenheimer almost lost her last election and is in her 70s.  She could be out of office soon, by the ballot box or retirement.

It is possible to create a more Republican-friendly State Senate district in central/southern Westchester if Republicans dared to.  It would have to take up Eastchester, Mount Pleasant and perhaps part Harrison while minimizing territory in more Democratic-leaning areas like Scarsdale, Greenburgh and White Plains on the way to consolidating those two or three towns in one district.  In the 2000 redistricting, Republicans put Eastchester and Mount Pleasant in two districts to keep two Republican incumbents in power.  Both seats are currently represented by Democrats, so that's no longer necessary.

Oppenheimer survived the worst year for Democrats since 1894.  Cuomo will veto any redistricting plan that tries to hurt her.  Obama took 64% in that district, making it D+11.  She wont lose and will probably be strengthened further in redistricting(trading some Westchester territory with Ball). 

You are the same person who said that Andrea Stewart-Cousins was vulnerable and she won by double digits in what will probably be the worst Democratic year in our lifetimes. 

And you are the same person who said that neither Stewart-Cousins nor Oppenheimer were vulnerable and would win in cakewalks.  Oppenheimer barely won.  Stewart-Cousins is vulnerable with the right candidate.  Her seat was held by a Republican 2006.

Please reread what I wrote.  Oppenheimer is also old, which means that, like many Republican State Senators from Long Island, there's a chance she could decide to retire rather than run for reelection or die in office.

Ball doesn't need more territory in Westchester.  If anything, assuming Senate Republicans draw the map properly, if they really wanted to shore up Oppenheimer, they would give her Democrats out of whatever district they want to make competitive for a Republican.  Though if I were drawing the maps, it would be her district that I'd be making more competitive in the first place.

Worst year for Democrats since 1894?  Unfortunately, not in New York.  The Democratic gubernatorial candidate and two Senate candidates won in cakewalks.  If anything, in other races, 2010 was more of a movement back toward the status quo in New York, not the worst year for New York Democrats ever.

This was a horrible year in New York for Democrats.  They lost six House seats, control of the state Senate and 12 Assembly seats.  A Republican cant win anymore statewide in New York no matter how bad the year is for Democrats.

Stewart-Cousins' district was held by a Republican until 2006.  So what.  Many districts in Tennessee and Alabama were held by Democrats until 2010, but those days are over.

And Cuomo will veto any map that tries to endanger more Democrats.  Oppenheimer may retire, but will bet you a million dollars that another Democrat easily holds that seat in 2012. 

[Mr.Phips]

Sorry to burst your bubble but cinyc's last sentence nailed it. It doesn't hurt that's Republicans had three sacrificial lambs for Governor and Senate.

How is losing six House seats in one state anything other than horrible?  The last time Democrats lost that many seats in the state was 1946 and that is when the state had far more seats to lose.

[Mr.Phips]

Sorry to burst your bubble but cinyc's last sentence nailed it. It doesn't hurt that's Republicans had three sacrificial lambs for Governor and Senate.

How is losing six House seats in one state anything other than horrible?  The last time Democrats lost that many seats in the state was 1946 and that is when the state had far more seats to lose.

Democrats didn't lose any seats they held in 2005. They still hold NY-23.

They lost many seats that they should have been able to hold like NY-13, NY-19 and NY-25.  NY-29 was arguably the only seat that they should have lost based on statewide results.