Trend Map is more revelant for 2016 Presidential Election:2004/2012 or 2008/2012

[hopper]

So the question is which trend map is more revelant to the 2016 Presidential Election? 2004/2012 or 2008/2012? Since 2008 was a Dem Wave I think 2004/2012 might be more revelant because it balances out the 2008 trend map.

[Vega]

2004/2012.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

The West will trend R again like in 2012, only because Hillary will be the candidate.
The Midwest will trend R again, because of Walker.
The South will trend D again because of Hillary.
The Northeast will trend D again because of Hillary.
So, 2012 it is.

[hopper]

The West will trend R again like in 2012, only because Hillary will be the candidate.
The Midwest will trend R again, because of Walker.
The South will trend D again because of Hillary.
The Northeast will trend D again because of Hillary.
So, 2012 it is.

Well The West The West Coast should trend to Hillary. The Northeast I don't know about except for Vermont and New York trending towards Hillary. I think the Northeast trend will be a wash except for VT and NY probably.

2004/2012 or 2008/2012 Trend Map?

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

What I think will be the likely Walker Clinton trend map.

[Vega]

Scott Walker would win Hawaii, Oregon and Pennsylvania?

And Hillary Clinton win Missisipi, Alabama, South Carolina and Utah?

Riiiiiiiiiight.........

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

Scott Walker would win Hawaii?

Riiiiiiiiiight.........

......it's a trend map. "rolls eyes"

[Vega]

Scott Walker would win Hawaii?

Riiiiiiiiiight.........

......it's a trend map. "rolls eyes"

Trend map or not, Hawaii could not be won by a R.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

Scott Walker would win Hawaii?

Riiiiiiiiiight.........

......it's a trend map. "rolls eyes"

Trend map or not, Hawaii could not be won by a R.

You obviously don't know what we are talking about here, so bye.
(unless you want to know )

[Vega]

Scott Walker would win Hawaii?

Riiiiiiiiiight.........

......it's a trend map. "rolls eyes"

Trend map or not, Hawaii could not be won by a R.

You obviously don't know what we are talking about here, so bye.
(unless you want to know )

Sure, fill me in. I must be missing the picture.

[hopper]

What I think will be the likely Walker Clinton trend map.

Well I don't know how Hillary could do any worse than Obama did in Utah in 2012.

[old timey villain]

Scott Walker would win Hawaii?

Riiiiiiiiiight.........

......it's a trend map. "rolls eyes"

Trend map or not, Hawaii could not be won by a R.

You obviously don't know what we are talking about here, so bye.
(unless you want to know )

Sure, fill me in. I must be missing the picture.

Trend is the direction a state moves relative to the nation as a whole when comparing the previous election. So let's say Walker wins against Hillary in 2016. Obviously Walker will win Utah but it might only swing a point to Walker compared to Romney's overperformance there while the national vote might swing 5 points compared to 2012. So Utah swings to Walker but trends to Hillary.

[hopper]

Scott Walker would win Hawaii?

Riiiiiiiiiight.........

......it's a trend map. "rolls eyes"

Trend map or not, Hawaii could not be won by a R.

Well Bush W. only lost the state 6% in 2004.

[Vega]

Scott Walker would win Hawaii?

Riiiiiiiiiight.........

......it's a trend map. "rolls eyes"

Trend map or not, Hawaii could not be won by a R.

You obviously don't know what we are talking about here, so bye.
(unless you want to know )

Sure, fill me in. I must be missing the picture.

Trend is the direction a state moves relative to the nation as a whole when comparing the previous election. So let's say Walker wins against Hillary in 2016. Obviously Walker will win Utah but it might only swing a point to Walker compared to Romney's overperformance there while the national vote might swing 5 points compared to 2012. So Utah swings to Walker but trends to Hillary.

Ah, I see, thanks.

[Vega]

Scott Walker would win Hawaii?

Riiiiiiiiiight.........

......it's a trend map. "rolls eyes"

Trend map or not, Hawaii could not be won by a R.

Well Bush W. only lost the state 6% in 2004.

John Kerry did bad in the state; it's not that GW did good.

[ElectionsGuy]

Scott Walker would win Hawaii?

Riiiiiiiiiight.........

......it's a trend map. "rolls eyes"

Trend map or not, Hawaii could not be won by a R.

You obviously don't know what we are talking about here, so bye.
(unless you want to know )

Sure, fill me in. I must be missing the picture.

Trends are how much a state swings compared to the national swing. It has nothing to do with which candidate will win which state. Illinois trended republican in 2012 but Obama still won it handily is an example...

2004/2012 would be more accurate for the OP's question.

[Flake]

Hey, yeah, so instead of only Walker, which some of you here only test, let's try some other Republican candidates, maybe?

[old timey villain]

Hey, yeah, so instead of only Walker, which some of you here only test, let's try some other Republican candidates, maybe?

Okay: Rand Paul vs Clinton

Clinton wins by 8 points (My dream scenario)

National swing is about 4 points to the left

States that trend D:
Tennessee
Missouri
Arkansas
West Virginia


States that trend R:
Most of the northeast
Kentucky
Plains states
Colorado
California