Is Ohio becoming the next Missouri? (user search)
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  Is Ohio becoming the next Missouri? (search mode)
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Question: Is Ohio the next Missouri?
#1
Yes
 
#2
No
 
#3
Maybe
 
#4
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Total Voters: 130

Author Topic: Is Ohio becoming the next Missouri?  (Read 7110 times)
Kevin
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,424
United States


« on: August 04, 2017, 05:11:06 PM »
« edited: August 04, 2017, 08:21:06 PM by Kevin »

No....  both parties support has fluctuated between 46 % and 52% for the past five elections, starting in 2000.

Sure, Trump performed about 1% better as a Republican than George W. in '04, for the strongest performance a Republican has garnered since 1988.

What is clear is that Obama was especially popular for a Democratic Presidential Candidate in Ohio, achieving the highest % of support for a Democrat since 1964--- with a whopping 51.5% of the Vote....

I don't believe that the traditional swing voters of Ohio suddenly decided to become Republicans in 2016 in any massive numbers...

Trump's economic populist message resonated better than some other 'Pub candidates, but unless the dude delivers some goods, he's not going to get love from the 'hood.

Ohio's a very interesting state politically, as I learned living there for four years back in the Mid '90s, with arguably five or six distinct sub-regions, each with their own media markets and collective cultural and social identity.

Now, the problem for the Democrats is that the swing in most of these distinct regions favored the Republican candidate in '16, and this could potentially foreshadow Ohio returning back to a Lean Republican State, as it used to be for quite a few decades....

However, despite the Republican '16 swings in several key regions of the state, we have yet to see evidence of a sustained trend among these key swing voting regions of the State towards the Republican Party at a Presidential level.

An attempt to analyze the political geography of Ohio from a longer term historical timeline, for example starting in 1988 (Post Reagan landslide) might be in order, but as part of a rigorous effort that most precisely breaks the state down into it's key sub-components and looks at the compare-contrast and historical and demographic trending...

Still, even if Ohio is starting to Lean Republican (again!), which is debatable at this time, it certainly isn't anywhere close to become the next Missourri, simply because Trump garnered 1% more than of the vote than George W in '04, who came close to losing the state to John Kerry!

Atlas perspective break folks, and do we have any volunteers to undertake a scientific analysis of the "Six States of Ohio" over the past 28 years?   Gives you eight years of election data to work with, so could be a fun project for anyone interested....   Smiley





I agree with you,

Midwestern States like OH, IA, and to a lesser extent WI, MI/PA seem like places where the electorite was was very excited and supportive of Obama and are now feeling the same for Trump.

I thinl people should think less about these things in partisan terms and view states like Ohio as "Pro-Trump states" vs. somewhere like VA or CO which I would classify as "anti-Trump." I personally think a more generic Republican like Rubio prob would have won these(but not MI, PA, and maybe WI)

Ditto the same for say 1992 and 1996-I would have put states like MO, AR, LA, and TN" in the basket of "Pro-Clinton" not necessarily trending back towards the Democrats.

Also for the record I think other perspective GOP nominees this last cycle such as Rubio would have done less well in OH. While I think someone like JEB! or Cruz would have had a hard time carrying it(or any other Midwestern states for that matter).
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