US House Redistricting: Ohio

[TJ in Oregon]

The easiest way to make sure Kucinich beats Sutton is to remove everyting south of Coppley and add more of northern Medina County and Brecksville and Broadview Heights even if it damages the 14th half a point or something. Put Brunswick into the 10th. It's one of the wealthier suburbs on the west side where I'd expect Obama to overperform. If the GOP draws a map looking like that, I expect the Republican nominee to be former Cuyahoga County Republican Chairman Rob Frost of Lakewood, so the GOP would have a Clevelander, not someone from Akron or Lorain. Whatever shifts the geography toward Cleveland helps Kucinich against Sutton and will also help the GOP in general election provided the partisan balance is about the same. Do not draw the 10th 55-56% Obama whatever you do because the 10th is not a wealthy suburban district that will favor the GOP in Congressional elections more than presidential ones. 55-56% and Kucinich will be re-elected.

[TJ in Oregon]

Go for it boys. I look forward to seeing that CD that is cyan generically, but pink for Kuch.  It seems a bit too clever by half really.  Plus is Kuch really going to underperform that much in the new more isolationist environment out there?

The thing is you can make that CD R+2 to R+3 so it would be generally pink and only cyan for a strong Dem (unless you are using Atlas colors). It's certainly not a guarentee for the Republicans but with equal opponents, the GOP is more likely to win it than not.

The other thing to keep in mind is that Kucinich has a completely different base of supporters in Cleveland than he does nationally. Here, he's primarily likely for preserving the Municipal Lighting Company in the 70s and for a sense of ethnic community pride. He runs much better in poorer conservadem places than in wealthier liberal ones. He's something of a local icon more than anything else. The main reason why he's lost so much popularity isn't really because of his political views but more becasue he hasn't written any decent legislation since he starting running for president. The man has turned into a walking caricature. Sutton has pretty much no cross-party appeal either. Neither Kucinich nor Sutton has any chance of winning an R+2 to R+3 seat unless the national environment is heavily in favor of the Democrats.

My main concern if this is the Republicans plan isn't OH-10, it's the fact that they haven't dealt with Columbus at all. That could cost us 2, maybe even 3 seats depending on how it's drawn.

[TJ in Oregon]

I wrote that based on the assumption that what Mr. X posted on the previous page was what the Republicans are trying to do and it included splitting Columbus three ways. I think the GOP should under no circumstances split Columbus three ways and it needs to either be a pack or a four-way split. I'd prefer a four-way split but the Ohio GOP may not be as willing to draw nasty looking lines. The current map has an R+7, a D+1, and a D+2. All of them are trending in the Democratic direction. Preserving this is a dummymander. This is a much bigger concern to me than whether Kucinich is running in a seat that is R+3 or R+5. Either way he is likely to lose and the Republicans are likely to hold the seat more often than not. The Republicans are going to have three Eastern Ohio seats more marginal than they'd like no matter what they do: the 6th, Kucinich's, and the 14th.

[TJ in Oregon]

Well, Kerry got 58% in OH-10, whereas Obama only got 59%.  That would seem to indicate either that the district is trending rightward, or that Obama underperformed there (probably a mix of both).  Kucinich got 57% in 2008, underperforming even Obama.  So in a D+8 district where Obama only got D+6, Kucinich ran as if it was D+4.  So maybe if you make it a D+1-2 district, with a lot of newer, more rural swing voters in Lorain and possibly elsewhere that will be ignorant of Dennis's glory days and only know him from his recent shtick, the GOP would have a reasonably good shot at him. 

But if you're going to do that, why stop at D+1? Why not just make it R+3 so that you should win it no matter who the Democrat is? R+3 really isn't any harder to draw and you don't start getting into trouble until R+4.

And yes, I would assume that the western part of Cuyahoga County is slowly trending in the GOP's directon.

[TJ in Oregon]

Yes, Columbus has to be a quad chop. OH-04 needs to join the party, or it's a GOP bust.  OH-07 just doesn't have much in the way of excess Pubs to spread around.  OH-07 sucked up but two additionally heavily Dem wards in Columbus (about a dozen precincts) when I did my map, and it was done. It was maxed out.

So I don't expect to see that - a tri-chop - at all. OH-04 has a lot of excess Pubs, and can be drawn in its northern reaches to have even more.

Good, becuase keeping the tri-chop would be an epically dumb idea for the Ohio GOP and it would suprise me if they made the mistake of doing it.

[TJ in Oregon]

Yikes! After all that LaTourette is still only 51.5% McCain! I think this shows the Republicans ought to draw OH-10 and OH-11 and then just put OH-14 however it fits without absorbing any really Democratic areas around the edges. Just give him R+3 to R+4 and be done with it.

[TJ in Oregon]

I tried drawing a northeast Ohio map without the Cleveland to Akron seat and just one in Cleveland itself, while making the three margin seats Republican and making it look fairly clean.



Yellow: Obama 83.5-McCain 15.7, 47.0% VAP Black, D+30
Bronze: Obama 49.5-McCain 48.9, R+3.7
Navy: Obama 65.7-McCain 32.5, D+12
Green: Obama 50.2-McCain 48.5, R+3.1
Maroon: McCain 50.1-Obama 47.9, R+5

[TJ in Oregon]

47.0%VAP (49.6% overall if that matters any) and I'm not sure they'd do this, especially without consulting the local NAACP and Marcia Fudge. I do think Fudge would have no problems in a primary though, the white population is split up too much between east and west for it to matter.

I've mainly been operating under the assumption of a Cleveland-to-Akron OH-11, but wanted to see what it would look like if they don't draw it. Do you think a court would mandate it? It doesn't change the results much just makes it uglier. The local GOP will need to talk to Fudge and George Forbes (the local NAACP leader) first in any event. Keeping them happy is essential.

[TJ in Oregon]

TJ, does anyone in Akron actually WANT to be in a Cleveland district?

I highly doubt it.

The reason why it would be drawn would be because the Cleveland African American community might want part of Akron to be in their district. Cleveland and Akron aren't really the same COI, but then again Akron and Youngstown aren't either. I mainly just wanted to see what it would look like without the Cleveland-to-Akron one since I've drawn like ten maps with it already.

Whether it's drawn or not, assuming the GOP doesn't tick off anyone enough to sue, really doesn't change the results much, though. Of course, if OH-11 has to be eggregiously gerrymandered to meet 50% VAP black, then I am assuming we can carve up municipalities into mincemeat in the process while I sort of tried to avoid that on the clean map. At the end of the day, it's a wash. The only reason not to make OH-10 in the R+2 to R+3 range is if R+5 isn't safe enough for the Renacci/Gibbs showdown seat or if the Ohio GOP is really deadset on putting as much of Medina County as possible in that seat.

[TJ in Oregon]

If you're willing split municipalities more, you can split Lakewood and Garfield Heights, carefully selecting the right precincts. Maybe even split Bedford if necessary for a few thousand people only in the mid-60s% Obama for OH-10. The map makes this worse than it really is because part of the nasty 80%+ precinct you have to go through is in a park so you wouldn't actually need to add it to get to the other side. There are a couple precincts in Brook Park that worth grabbing by OH-11 too. On the east side, there is a decent chunk of ~60-65% Obama territory in South Euclid, Beachwood, University Heights, and Shaker Heights, (and maybe even the three Cleveland Heights Jewish ones since you only need to go through one or two 80%ish ones to get there) you can move to OH-14 without doing a lot of damage. There are a couple more up by the lake in Euclid that are salvageble too. Most of this even raises the black% so we can probably justify it if we "have to" get to 50%VAP. You can take the Akron tail down along the Cuyahoga Valley instead of through Twinsburg and if you split precincts actually could avoid almost everyone living there too. The only loss here is one precinct in Walton Hills. This may be nickel and diming it some, but if we want to go all the way it can be done. I posted a map of an OH-10 and OH-11 back on page 27 that was R+3.36, though it included Renacci. But since we're already combining Renacci and Gibbs it shouldn't matter too terribly much whether we include the majority of Medina County or not. Every precinct that seat loses can be another one in Wayne or Ashland Counties, hurting the Columbus chop seats or possibly Latta depending on what you remove from Lorain.

[TJ in Oregon]

If the GOP is in the mood to be fiddling around with D primaries, it's perhaps worth noting that Ryan v. Sutton has "EMILY'S LIST blasts $$$ that could go to swing districts at a safe district primary" written all over it.

I'd love to watch that! Ryan ought to win because most of the districts drawn have more of Warren/Youngstown than Akron and Sutton is pretty much a faceless Generic Democrat. It's kind of amusing they'd bother going after Ryan since he's hardly a vocal pro-lifer. Heck if they want to spend money over getting a true pro-choice Dem rather than a wishy-washy one, I'd much rather they spend it there than propping up, say Dennis Kucinich.

[TJ in Oregon]

The minority district (11) is 48% black VAP, which has been agreed upon by the Ohio NAACP.

That changes the game a whole lot in Northeast Ohio. We can have a lean R OH-10 without nasty looking borders now.

[TJ in Oregon]

This map combines Renacci and Gibbs in a primary, eliminates Sutton, and makes Kucinich no longer favored to win his seat:


Cleveland:


OH-1: Dark Green- Chabot (R-Cincinnati) R+5.62
OH-2: Gold- Schmidt (R-Loveland) R+7.21
OH-3: Slate Green- Turner (R-Dayton) R+5.82
OH-4: Purple- Jordan (R-Urbana) R+7.13
OH-5: Red- Latta (R-Bowling Green) R+6.52
OH-6: Teal- Johnson (R-Marietta) R+6.95
OH-7: Gray- Austria (R-Beavercreek) R+6.42
OH-8: Light Blue- Boehner (R-West Chester) R+10.36
OH-9: Cyan- Kaptur (D-Toledo) D+10.58
OH-10: Lime Green- Kucinich (D-Cleveland), Sutton (D-Copley), Open (R) R+3.10
OH-11: Yellow- Fudge (D-Warrensville Hts.) D+29.97 46.98% Black VAP
OH-12: Maroon- Tiberi (R-Galena) R+6.03
OH-13: Salmon- Renacci (R-Wadsworth) and Gibbs (R-Lakeville) R+5.08
OH-14: Tan- LaTourette (R-Bainbridge Twp.) R+3.65
OH-15: Orange- Stivers (R-Columbus) R+6.45
OH-16: Navy Blue- Ryan (D-Niles) D+12.66

[TJ in Oregon]

I'm not a huge fan of this because it sounds like the GOP has mutilated the idea of a community of interest and is throwing Steve Austria under the bus when it doesn't seem like he's the weakest incumbent. I also wanted a close western Cleveland seat for a Kucinich/Frost showdown.

However, it doesn't seem like there is a huge potential for this map to backfire.

[TJ in Oregon]

Yikes.... The 7th stretches from Erie County to Tuscarawas. I'm curious to see where my parents' house ends up. This has to mutilate communities of interest to a whole new level. Wow.

I can't wait to see the map.

Edit: Erie County is also split 3 ways. They weren't messing around I guess?

[TJ in Oregon]

I mapped it on the DRA as best I could (ie. without splitting precincts and a little ambiguous on some municipality splits) and came up with this:

OH-1: Chabot (R-Cincinnati) R+6.73
OH-2: Schmidt (R-Loveland) R+8.72
OH-3: OPEN (D-Columbus) D+15.01
OH-4: Jordan (R-Urbana) R+8.20
OH-5: Latta (R-Bowling Green) R+6.27
OH-6: Johnson (R-Marietta) R+8.11
OH-7: Gibbs (R-Lakeville) R+6.06
OH-8: Boehner (R-West Chester) R+13.38
OH-9: Kaptur (D-Toledo) and Kucinich (D-Cleveland) D+12.17
OH-10: Turner (R-Dayton), and Austria (R-Beavercreek) R+6.78
OH-11: Fudge (D-Warrensville Hts.) D+28.36 50.28% Black VAP
OH-12: Tiberi (R-Galena) R+9.52
OH-13: Ryan (D-Niles) D+9.63
OH-14: LaTourette (R-Bainbridge Twp.) R+4.20
OH-15: Stivers (R-Columbus) R+7.56
OH-16: Renacci (R-Wadsworth) and Sutton (D-Copley)R+6.02

I am a little disappointed the GOP drew something that ugly and it isn't even an exceptionally well done gerrymander. A lot of the nasty-ness is just unnecessary.

[TJ in Oregon]

Do you have an affirmative case for keeping Schmidt in office? Any Republican who replaces her would be equally conservative and much less likely to lose the seat in a D wave.

That depends on how you measure 'conservative'. Schmidt is socially to the right of almost everyone but she has on occasion voted for pro-union measures. Her "Generic Republican" replacement would likely be slightly to her left socially and slightly to her right fiscally. Still, in essence you're right; whoever represents that part of the state isn't going to be a RINO.

[TJ in Oregon]

It just seems like it's convoluted for the sake of being convoluted. For example, the unnecessary splits of Medina, Wyandot, Hardin, Hancock, Wood (though this is understandable to keep Fostoria whole), and Huron Counties, as well as the unnecessary 3-way splits of Erie, Stark, Lucas, and Mercer Counties. I don't see any actual reason why OH-15 takes that shape throught rural, homogenous SW Ohio. That think is truly awful looking---and they still didn't even crack Columbus. I also am wondering why they put so much of Cuyahoga County into OH-10. Do they want Kucinich to get re-elected?

The did a good job with Cincy and the Ohio River areas for the most part, although I don't like how OH-2 does a horseshoe around Highland County for no apparent reason.

[TJ in Oregon]

Kaptur's office has made a big deal about the ugliness of OH-9 and a state legislator said:

"If Marcy Kaptur were to drive her district, she would have to drive into Lake Erie. She would have to put her car in a boat."

http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2011/09/new_congressional_district_map.html

And the state legislator is completely right. There is no road through that little sliver of land connection in Ottawa County (and of course she'd have to take the Thomas Edison Memorial Bridge over the Sandusky Bay, which she already would need to do and would do if actually driving... and she also can't drive to the islands). But, this was pretty unnecessary. Just swapping one precinct would let her take Route 2.

Another thing I noticed trying to map this was the Ohio GOP split very, very few municipalities. That must be their argument for the atrocious county splits: they left close to all municipalities intact.

[TJ in Oregon]

What does "partisan rating" mean. Surely it is not the McCain percentages is it? In any event, they certainly Pubbed up OH-01 didn't they?  I mean it goes way beyond anything that I did, but then that is true of the map in general. After the Pubs decided that trying to hold Columbus was just a overreach, and not wise, and ceded it, they just then went for the max, not caring how the map looked.  They just decided to screw the Dems as much as they could, and avoid any of their dozen seats having any possibility of being anything other than Pubbie, no matter what. Boats, erosity, chops - it's all there. I am amused how Tiberi's CD, now shorn of almost all of its Dem precincts, was used to neutralize Athens. It is as if an atom bomb was used when the US invaded Grenada.

It's based on the two party vote from 2008 Presidential race and the Gov, SoS and Auditor races from 2010.

jimrtex and I have been discussion this rating on the competition thread. We suspect it gives a slightly more GOP tinge than exists in reality.

Compared to the PVI numbers that TJ was good enough to generate, they look pretty close to those figures don't they?  Thanks TJ for doing that for us.

Keep in mind these aren't truly PVI numbers but are based only on the 2008 election. It may not be as all-encompassing as the index but at least we should all have a feel for what constitutes 'safe' in 2008 terms.

Edit: Wow I can't spell.

[TJ in Oregon]

Municipal preservation is clearly their rationale for the county splits. It explains why Fudge's CD-11 takes in the GOP towns in NW Summit.

That's the only possible explanation for the route they took from Cleveland to Akron even in the Cuyahoga County portion. Seven Hills and Broadview Heights are in OH-11 and are two of the more Republican cities around. I was expecting them to go through Walton Hills and follow the eastern shore to the Cuyahoga River. They also put a lot more of Akron into OH-11 than I expected. The Youngstown district isn't packed very well as a result. There are a lot of 50-55% Obama precincts in there that could be somewhere else.

The nice this is that the lack of municipality splits made it way easier to draw in the DRA.

[TJ in Oregon]

I think this Toledo chop was well beyond what any of us had been expecting.

[TJ in Oregon]

They chopped off about half the city. My map is only a crude approximation because they split a bunch of precincts, but I did make the populations right to within a precinct or two. They split off precincts where McCain was in the 20s. The only reason I can see why they left most of that western wedge was because Kaptur lives there.

[TJ in Oregon]

This is a very smart map. Preserves the 2010 gains and it will spare the world of Dennis Kucinich.

But the thing is it looks like they are trying to keep Kucinich. He has more current territory in the new OH-10 than Kaptur and even more of it is in the Cleveland media market. I was expecting that if they drew a Toledo to Cleveland seat (not that I wanted them to) it would be more Toledo than Cleveland, not this thing.

[TJ in Oregon]

The main reason why they needed to split Toledo like that is because they put more of Akron into OH-11 than our maps on this site had expected. We were more or less assuming they would just throw in a slice of Akron to get to 50.1% VAP black -- and no more. They decided instead to put a considerable portion of Akron into OH-11 and drew OH-9 into more of the west side of Cleveland. This results in having a less-packed OH-13 and an ugly OH-9.

I still don't understand some of the decisions they made in drawing OH-9. For instance, if they just included Benton Township in Ottawa County (~55% Obama and only about 2,000 people) it would be contiguous by road. They also could have peeled off a decent slice of Erie County and Lorain County that is way more marginal than many of the Toledo precincts they put into OH-4 and 5. We're probably talking 30,000-40,000 people in areas 50-55% Obama.