Delegates Tracker - Trump ahead.
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Author Topic: Delegates Tracker - Trump ahead.  (Read 2001 times)
Senator Cris
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« on: October 03, 2015, 06:02:53 AM »
« edited: October 04, 2015, 09:57:35 AM by Speaker Cris »
Trump 602 (24.3%)
Carson 122 (4.9%)
Bush 117 (4.7%)
Kasich 71 (2.9%)
Paul 68 (2.8%)
Cruz 56 (2.3%)
Huckabee 41 (1.7%)
Christie 30 (1.2%)
Rubio 27 (1.1%)
Fiorina 27 (1.1%)
Jindal 4 (0.2%)
Santorum 2 (0.1%)
Graham 1 (0%)

CD delegates 793 (32.1%)
RNC 165 (6.7%)
Not pledged 97 (3.9%)
No polls 249 (10.1%)

Needed to win: 1.237 (50.04%)



Full image: http://s18.postimg.org/srqfya31l/Delegates_Tracker.png
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Senator Cris
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« Reply #1 on: October 04, 2015, 09:47:14 AM »
« Edited: October 04, 2015, 09:57:00 AM by Speaker Cris »
Update with new IA and NH polls.

Trump 599 (- 3)
Carson 126 (+4)
Bush 120 (+3)
Kasich 71 (=)
Paul 68 (=)
Cruz 55 (- 1)
Huckabee 41 (=)
Christie 31 (+1)
Rubio 25 (- 2)
Fiorina 25 (- 2)
Jindal 5 (+1)
Santorum 2 (=)
Graham 0 (- 1)

CD delegates 793 (=)
RNC 165 (=)
Not pledged 97 (=)
No polls 249 (=)



Better version: http://s4.postimg.org/80ca9m5vx/Delegates_Tracker.png
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darthebearnc
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« Reply #2 on: October 04, 2015, 09:54:43 AM »
Huckabee has none?
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Senator Cris
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« Reply #3 on: October 04, 2015, 09:58:07 AM »
Fixed. Smiley
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weixiaobao
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« Reply #4 on: October 04, 2015, 10:03:08 AM »
Very impressive. 

But if we assume that if this is how it went down this way, is it likely that all the none Trump candidates (that drop out) will endorse the anti Trump and the anti Trump will get those delegates?
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Senator Cris
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« Reply #5 on: October 08, 2015, 10:19:33 AM »
UPDATE:

With new OH poll in, Kasich lost all 63 delegates to Trump.

Trump 662 (+63)
Carson 126 (=)
Bush 120 (=)
Paul 68 (=)
Cruz 55 (=)
Huckabee 41 (=)
Christie 31 (=)
Rubio 25 (=)
Fiorina 25 (=)
Kasich 8 (- 63)
Jindal 5 (=)
Santorum 2 (=)
Graham 0 (=)

CD delegates 793 (=)
RNC 165 (=)
Not pledged 97 (=)
No polls 249 (=)



Better version: http://s16.postimg.org/d1sf67cyt/Delegates_Tracker.png
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ObamaThirdTerm
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« Reply #6 on: October 08, 2015, 02:30:50 PM »
What is this thread?
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Orthogonian Society Treasurer
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« Reply #7 on: October 08, 2015, 02:43:26 PM »
Quote from: Speaker Cris on October 08, 2015, 10:19:33 AM
UPDATE:

With new OH poll in, Kasich lost all 63 delegates to Trump.

Trump 662 (+63)
Carson 126 (=)
Bush 120 (=)
Paul 68 (=)
Cruz 55 (=)
Huckabee 41 (=)
Christie 31 (=)
Rubio 25 (=)
Fiorina 25 (=)
Kasich 8 (- 63)
Jindal 5 (=)
Santorum 2 (=)
Graham 0 (=)

CD delegates 793 (=)
RNC 165 (=)
Not pledged 97 (=)
No polls 249 (=)



Better version: http://s16.postimg.org/d1sf67cyt/Delegates_Tracker.png

So much for the Trump slump.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #8 on: October 16, 2015, 03:08:33 AM »
Are you only counting the at-large delegates here?  How do you deal with all the delegates being allocated by congressional district?  Assume that the vote is identical in every CD?  E.g., the most recent California poll is:

Trump 17%
Carson 15%
Fiorina 13%
Rubio 10%
Bush 8%
Cruz 6%
Paul 5%

So, OK, if that was the final statewide result, Trump would win the at-large delegates.  But no way would he win every single congressional district with a statewide result like that.  Many candidates would end up getting delegates.  So the delegate lead you show for Trump here is surely inflated, if you're not accounting for that.
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muon2
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« Reply #9 on: October 16, 2015, 08:15:36 AM »
In many states like IL there is a beauty contest vote for the nominee, but a separate ballot for delegates. The delegates are elected by name with their pledged support to a candidate in parentheses after their name. Here's a sample from 2012; note that some of the candidates in the beauty contest vote for president didn't qualify any delegates to run with them. Also note how prominent the delegate name is - some of those are prominent elected officials who can win regardless of their endorsed candidate. In 2008 McCain won easily, but Romney got 3 delegates in IL through popular politicians running as delegates.
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Senator Cris
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« Reply #10 on: October 16, 2015, 08:31:09 AM »
Quote from: Mr. Morden on October 16, 2015, 03:08:33 AM
Are you only counting the at-large delegates here?  How do you deal with all the delegates being allocated by congressional district?  Assume that the vote is identical in every CD?  E.g., the most recent California poll is:

Trump 17%
Carson 15%
Fiorina 13%
Rubio 10%
Bush 8%
Cruz 6%
Paul 5%

So, OK, if that was the final statewide result, Trump would win the at-large delegates.  But no way would he win every single congressional district with a statewide result like that.  Many candidates would end up getting delegates.  So the delegate lead you show for Trump here is surely inflated, if you're not accounting for that.


I allocated only 10 CA's delegates to Trump: http://s16.postimg.org/d1sf67cyt/Delegates_Tracker.png
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #11 on: October 16, 2015, 08:53:21 AM »
Quote from: Speaker Cris on October 16, 2015, 08:31:09 AM
Quote from: Mr. Morden on October 16, 2015, 03:08:33 AM
Are you only counting the at-large delegates here?  How do you deal with all the delegates being allocated by congressional district?  Assume that the vote is identical in every CD?  E.g., the most recent California poll is:

Trump 17%
Carson 15%
Fiorina 13%
Rubio 10%
Bush 8%
Cruz 6%
Paul 5%

So, OK, if that was the final statewide result, Trump would win the at-large delegates.  But no way would he win every single congressional district with a statewide result like that.  Many candidates would end up getting delegates.  So the delegate lead you show for Trump here is surely inflated, if you're not accounting for that.


I allocated only 10 CA's delegates to Trump: http://s16.postimg.org/d1sf67cyt/Delegates_Tracker.png

OK, so then for all the states that allocate by CD, you're only allocating the at large delegates and ignoring all the CD delegates?
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Senator Cris
Cris
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« Reply #12 on: October 16, 2015, 10:02:52 AM »
Quote from: Mr. Morden on October 16, 2015, 08:53:21 AM
Quote from: Speaker Cris on October 16, 2015, 08:31:09 AM
Quote from: Mr. Morden on October 16, 2015, 03:08:33 AM
Are you only counting the at-large delegates here?  How do you deal with all the delegates being allocated by congressional district?  Assume that the vote is identical in every CD?  E.g., the most recent California poll is:

Trump 17%
Carson 15%
Fiorina 13%
Rubio 10%
Bush 8%
Cruz 6%
Paul 5%

So, OK, if that was the final statewide result, Trump would win the at-large delegates.  But no way would he win every single congressional district with a statewide result like that.  Many candidates would end up getting delegates.  So the delegate lead you show for Trump here is surely inflated, if you're not accounting for that.


I allocated only 10 CA's delegates to Trump: http://s16.postimg.org/d1sf67cyt/Delegates_Tracker.png

OK, so then for all the states that allocate by CD, you're only allocating the at large delegates and ignoring all the CD delegates?

Yes.
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Senator Cris
Cris
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« Reply #13 on: October 17, 2015, 01:40:46 PM »
UPDATE:

Trump 667
Carson 140
Bush 102
Paul 65
Cruz 53
Huckabee 42
Christie 31.25
Rubio 27
Fiorina 24
Kasich 11.25
Jindal 3
Santorum 2
Graham 1
Gilmore 0.25
Pataki 0.25

CD delegates 793
RNC 165
Not pledged 97
No polls 249



Better version: http://s4.postimg.org/b9zplf2hp/Delegates_Tracker.png

Trump:



Carson vs. Bush:
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