When will South Carolina become a swing state?

[Roronoa D. Law]

It's trending D but slowly. SC is similar to MS and AK to an extent. The GOP is already maxed out rural and the rural areas with minorities majorities are losing population. Meaning that Republican victory comes mostly from suburban areas.

When talking about the suburban trend I always like the analogy of the working class suburb of Macomb and the more upper-middle-class diverse suburbs of Oakland. Republican do better in Macomb type suburbs and Democrats do better in Oakland type suburbs. As someone whose family is from SC, there is only a handful of suburbs that fit the mold of Oakland County. That is James Island, Mt Pleasant, and West Ashley in Charleston. Irmo and Forest Acres in Columbia. Which all trended pretty Democrat in 2018.

There just isn't enough room for Democrats to grow in SC. I agree that Republicans support in Greenville, York, and Lexington has likely peaked and Democrats will likely flip Dorchester, Berkely, with a slight chance in Beaufort in the next decade. So SC could start voting single digits but the chance it actually flips is slim. Plus Horry county is the fastest growing part now and if Democrats are losing support in Volusia they sure as hell ain't winning here.