How much effort should Romney place in winning Pennsylvania?

[jmc247]

How much should Romney and his SuperPACs spend on New York and Pennsylvania? Romney is going to to campaign there tomorrow and his Super PAC has already put in half a million.

Its clear he wants Pennsylvania and New York to be the places were he puts the race away this month, but in order to do it he can't be stingy about spending in the major New York and Pennsylvania media markets.

NYC and PA have overlapping media markets so ads in NYC help Romney in PA as well (and all the other April 24th states). PA also has early voting last I checked.
 

[argentarius]

It's time for him to show he can win without moneybombing. He's gonna be the nominee PA or not, so why not try being genuine for a change?

[tmthforu94]

Romney is in a good place - he has the momentum. All he needs to do on April 24th is keep Santorum from gaining any momentum and keep it for himself.

How does he do that?

Downplay expectations in Pennsylvania. Spend about a third of your time in Pennsylvania, the rest on making sure you carry all the other states voting that day, which you're expected to win. If all the attention is on Pennsylvania, if Santorum wins, he'll grab the headlines and thus, the momentum. You can win the headline war if you win everywhere else and focus more attention there. A moderate Santorum victory with Romney not campaigning hard there would be much better for Romney than a razor-thin margin with Romney trying hard.

[J. J.]

Romney is in a good place - he has the momentum. All he needs to do on April 24th is keep Santorum from gaining any momentum and keep it for himself.

How does he do that?

Downplay expectations in Pennsylvania. Spend about a third of your time in Pennsylvania, the rest on making sure you carry all the other states voting that day, which you're expected to win. If all the attention is on Pennsylvania, if Santorum wins, he'll grab the headlines and thus, the momentum. You can win the headline war if you win everywhere else and focus more attention there. A moderate Santorum victory with Romney not campaigning hard there would be much better for Romney than a razor-thin margin with Romney trying hard.

Because of the way PA is set up, Romney could win a plurality of the delegates, even if he loses the popular vote by a ten points.  There is a far chance that will be the story, and it has happened before.

[J. J.]

Santorum is taking four days off, "for the holiday."

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

He needs a moral victory... PA would be it.

[J. J.]

He needs a moral victory... PA would be it.

He's had "moral victories."  The question is, does he win one in PA, or does it bring back memories of 2006?

[Likely Voter]

Romney wants this thing over with. He could lose a string of primaries in May, which can make him look weak and force him to spend more money. A PA win could be a knockout punch to Rick who has said it is "critical" for him. Mitt should spend what it takes to knock Rick out

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Romney needs to start setting up the groundwork for the fall and for a change maintain it after the primary is over.  He should moneybomb Pennsylvania, but neither his ads nor those of the Restore Mitt's Future PAC should mention Rick at all.  They should either be positive ads about Romney or negative ads about Obama.

[RogueBeaver]

Romney needs to start setting up the groundwork for the fall and for a change maintain it after the primary is over.  He should moneybomb Pennsylvania, but neither his ads nor those of the Restore Mitt's Future PAC should mention Rick at all.  They should either be positive ads about Romney or negative ads about Obama.

[jmc247]

Romney needs to start setting up the groundwork for the fall and for a change maintain it after the primary is over.  He should moneybomb Pennsylvania, but neither his ads nor those of the Restore Mitt's Future PAC should mention Rick at all.  They should either be positive ads about Romney or negative ads about Obama.

Romney's SuperPAC spent about half a million in almost entirely positive ads in Louisiana. It didn't improve his numbers one bit and Santorum side aired mainly negative ads and they were very effective.

Right now if I was Romney I would use the threat of dropping a proverbal a-bomb of ads on Penn and doing everything I can to win there unless Santorum gets out of the race. The other stick would come from the big money backers and Republican establishment that if Santorum wants to run in 2016 or for any other major position he needs to end it now. My carrot of course would be Santorum gets a prime time speaking slot at the convention, any debts paid off, and he gets a graceful treatment by the party for the rest of the year.

Romney can't run to the middle until Santorum exits the race and endorses Romney or until Romney reaches the magic number of delegates. He will reach the magic number too late in the game so he has to force one of the major candidates out. Paul is going nowhere as he is running to support his cause. Newt really is irrelevent at this point he doesn't know it yet. Though its impossible for the RNC to really squeeze him as he knows this is likely his last election anyway.

That leaves Santorum who is still relatively young and I think wants a long political future in the GOP. Romney needs to make it known that he is no Ford and Santorum is no Reagan. That Romney with the help of the party boses will kneecap Santorum politically leaving him too toxic to have any hope of a successful run four years from now if he doesn't get out this week.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

At this point, he needs to focus on the general election for the most part, but still stay involved in primary campaigning a bit so that he doesn't come across as a cocky jerk who assumes nothing could happen to make him lose.  Pennsylvania is a proportional state... even if he doesn't campaign hard and doesn't win, he gets delegates bringing him closer to the nomination.

[ag]

He needs a respectable showing - but he doesn't need to win. Be gracious: make it clear you don't want to humiliate your opponent on his home turf )

A winning army doesn't need a big battle here - it can afford being generous.

[Pheurton Skeurto]

Not much, though he does have a fairly decent chance of winning it.

[tmthforu94]

PPP will be releasing their poll here in about 30 minutes...and Romney is leading. I think this is pre-Wisconsin, too.

In that case, go all in, Mitt.

[Brittain33]

Do we think at this point Santorum is mainly running so he can win an election in Pa and exorcise the demons of '06? Even if it's just a primary?

[RogueBeaver]

Maybe, maybe not. If Romney was leading by 5 before WI, Boston should definitely floor it in PA.

[J. J.]

Pennsylvania is a proportional state... even if he doesn't campaign hard and doesn't win, he gets delegates bringing him closer to the nomination.

It isn't proportional.  None of the delegates list a preference.

This would be an attempt to win the beauty contest.

[Keystone Phil]

Do we think at this point Santorum is mainly running so he can win an election in Pa and exorcise the demons of '06? Even if it's just a primary?

Partly, yes.

[jmc247]

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Beauty contest or not the media would hammer Santorum if Romney beats him in PA and remind Americans that even Newt won his home state. That will also remind people that he called it a must win state. If Romney wins there Santorum will be running nationally at Ron Paul levels after that. The media will stop giving him free air time and there will be no political oxygen or money left for him to go on.

[Lincoln Republican]

Well, Mitt has already gained the momentum in Pennsylvania.

The writing is on the wall.

For all intents and purposes, Mitt is the nominee.

Rick, swallow your pride, do the right thing and pack it in.

Mitt will say nice things about you.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/04/romney-takes-the-lead-in-pennsylvania.html

Mitt Romney's taken the lead in PPP's newest poll of Rick Santorum's home state of Pennsylvania. Romney has 42% to 37% for Santorum with Ron Paul at 9% and Newt Gingrich at 6%. The numbers represent a dramatic turnaround from when PPP polled the state a month ago. Romney's gained 17 points, going from 25% to 42%. Meanwhile Santorum's dropped 6 points from 43% to 37%, for an overall swing of 23 points in the last four weeks.

Obviously the race is still tight enough in Pennsylvania that Santorum could yet win...but the momentum is going completely against him and it looks like Romney will have the chance to strike a final crushing blow on April 24th.

[J. J.]

Beauty contest or not the media would hammer Santorum if Romney beats him in PA and remind Americans that even Newt won his home state. That will also remind people that he called it a must win state. If Romney wins there Santorum will be running nationally at Ron Paul levels after that. The media will stop giving him free air time and there will be no political oxygen or money left for him to go on.

That has to do, however, with weakening Santorum for May (which looks strong strong for him at this point).  I don't know how much losing the beauty contest will damage him.

Both Phil and I have noted that Santorum could win a big victory in the popular vote in PA, and not even get a plurality of the delegates.  At the end of the day, delegates will be the story.

And, for once, I'm not sold on the PPP results.  It's possible, but that just seems like a huge shift.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Not as much as NY. It's WTA there if he gets a majority.  He should also start to focus on IN and NC.

Romney should only run a general election message in PA.  Anything anti-Santorum there could backfire badly.

[Nichlemn]

Romney is in a good place - he has the momentum. All he needs to do on April 24th is keep Santorum from gaining any momentum and keep it for himself.

How does he do that?

Downplay expectations in Pennsylvania. Spend about a third of your time in Pennsylvania, the rest on making sure you carry all the other states voting that day, which you're expected to win. If all the attention is on Pennsylvania, if Santorum wins, he'll grab the headlines and thus, the momentum. You can win the headline war if you win everywhere else and focus more attention there. A moderate Santorum victory with Romney not campaigning hard there would be much better for Romney than a razor-thin margin with Romney trying hard.

Momentum doesn't matter at this point. All that matters to Romney is a) not making a colossal gaffe and b) getting his remaining opponents out of the race so he can focus on November. It doesn't really matter much if Santorum wins PA and it's unexpected, but it would be nice if he lost and dropped out.

[Bull Moose Base]

He'd have to make an effort to lose it.