Sam Spade's 2008 Senate/House Election Prediction Thread (FINALIZED - SEE P.18)

[Spaghetti Cat]

Good predictions, just a few changes I had in mind.
I would move CO-4 to leans R and then switch MN-1 with NH-2.

[Spaghetti Cat]

Good predictions, just a few changes I had in mind.
I would move CO-4 to leans R and then switch MN-1 with NH-2.

In CO-04, when your own internal poll only shows you up seven, under 50%, that means you belong in toss-up.  Especially someone with a record like Musgrave - you see, McConnell in KY showing me something similar would mean Lean R, but Musgrave - no.

I feel very good about OH-15 being the top of the toss-up (or NY-25, whichever) because Kilroy's internal placed her at 47-37 over Stivers.  That should be stronger for someone who's been running for the past two years.  Whereas Musgrave at the bottom of the toss-up, fits nicely.

MN-1 vs. NH-2 has to with the PVI of the two CDs, plain and simple.

I was just looking at the candidates.  In MN-1, the GOP isn't going to have anyone worth while (Dick Day won't be Tim Walz).  But in NH-2, I see both Clegg and Horn capable of beating Hodes if things pan out right.  Also, watch LA-06.  Bill Anderson, who would be a great GOP candidate, is considering entering the race.  Combine that with the fact that Michael Jackson, who Cazouxou (however the hell his name is spelled) beat in the primary, might run as an independent, where he would pick up much of the black vote (Jackson's black), and things aren't looking good for Cazouxou.

[Spaghetti Cat]

I would put NJ-7 into Toss-Up definitely.

Not with Lance as the candidate and the history of that area. 

In fact, it would be below NM-01, the other marginal open seat where Republicans have a strong advantage based on the particulars (excluding IL-18 of course), but-for Stender's cash advantage at present.

But if my opinion changes or the situation changes, rest assured the ranking will.  It's only the end of June, quite early in these types of races.

NJ-7 is a toss up in my book. Stender will outspend Lance, probably by a lot. Also, look at the history. It's a trending dem district and is only slightly republican. Plus, this is 2008, which looks to be a strong dem year, and this is NJ. At most it's barely lean Lance.

But she didnt win in 2006, which was a worse year for Republicans than 2008 will be, and I can guarentee you that.

[Spaghetti Cat]

No it doesn't mean she can't win, but it doesn't mean you put in the "leans gop" category either.

[Spaghetti Cat]

Politico had this poll (http://www.politico.com/blogs/thecrypt/0608/Poll_shows_Schmidt_vulnerable.html) that has Schmidt in a questionable position.  I'm not sure if I'd keep her in Potentially Competative or move her down to Likely Republican.

[Spaghetti Cat]

Hey guys, haven't been on in a while (so busy, but football will be over soon) and now I'll try to be on more often.  Sam, I agree with your analysis pretty well, but a few changes.  I think NM-02 is more likely to go Dem at this point (put it in front of the next five or six), I would move NH-01 down 2 or 3 (somehow, I think she'll pull off a win), and I think Dems will gain maybe two or three more than what you have now (17 Dem pickups, 6 GOP, for a net total of 11 Dem pickups).  Also, as far as the Boyda-Jenkins race goes, I think the debate tonite may have a major effect on the outcome of the race.

[Spaghetti Cat]

Ok, I understand now that you're saying how it will end up on election day.  Also, what is the deal with Mahoney?  Will he issue an apology ad?  Can that save him?

[Spaghetti Cat]

I'm going to agree with your analysis more than anyone else's, although I am still holding out for FL-24.

[Spaghetti Cat]

Well if I counted right, Sam has a 22 seat pick up in the House based on intensive research and thought, and I have a 22 seat pickup based on looking at Rothenberg's list, and saying agree or disagree, and checking some polls and my knowledge of lack thereof of a district, and then my gut, and then pulling a number out of my ass.  Some of the individual seats vary, like CA-4 and so forth, but whatever. Two of the three Cuban districts in Florida are going down?  I though just one was in play?

Sam has both Cuban seats staying Republican (FL-21 and FL-25).  The two Florida seats he has going Dem are those of Ric Keller and Tom Feeney.