2010 Primaries Thread (It's all over now, baby blue)

[Saxwsylvania]

This is looking like South Carolina all over again.  A woman, some random dude, a corrupt opportunist, and some random guy.

[Sam Spade]

Keown's primary performance = impressive.  Austin Scott = not so much (just barely getting 50% now).  Scott, of course, has a much more favorable CD to run in, to put it mildly.

[Bacon King]

I live in GA-07. Woodall's had an amazingly well-organized campaign throughout the district. I wasn't aware until this thread that people outside the district didn't know that.

For what it's worth, I voted for him, as did my entire family. Also, unrelated, but Hice is a horrible person.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Looks like Graves and Hawkins are going to the mat again.

Clay Cox is done for unless he happens to represent the outstanding portion of Gwinnett County.

I live in GA-07. Woodall's had an amazingly well-organized campaign throughout the district. I wasn't aware until this thread that people outside the district didn't know that.

For what it's worth, I voted for him, as did my entire family. Also, unrelated, but Hice is a horrible person.

Yes, that's the kind of thing people outside the district wouldn't be aware of. Since there's been no polling of the primary, the fact that Woodall had only raised about $95k seemed to suggest he wasn't going to get anywhere.

[Lunar]

I live in GA-07. Woodall's had an amazingly well-organized campaign throughout the district. I wasn't aware until this thread that people outside the district didn't know that.

For what it's worth, I voted for him, as did my entire family. Also, unrelated, but Hice is a horrible person.

What's the difference between them?

[Sam Spade]

Meanwhile, looks like Scott is going to escape the runoff and Johnson keeps closing in on Deal (and will likely continue to, given what's out - the 47 Chatham precincts come to mind at minimum), but it's too little too late barring something shocking.

[Devilman88]

It is starting to look like the south might have two Republican women candidate for Governor.

[Lunar]

It is starting to look like the south might have two Republican women candidate for Governor.

Handel has a much longer way to go in her run-off than Haley did

Can't believe the Ox is in 4th

[Devilman88]

It is starting to look like the south might have two Republican women candidate for Governor.

Handel has a much longer way to go in her run-off than Haley did

Can't believe the Ox is in 4th

Yea, but I forgot about Mary Fallin in OK, so we could have three Republican Women Candidates for Governor in the South.

[Bacon King]

Woodall: On the libertarian side of the GOP, if there still is one. A big issue for him is the Fair Tax; he ghost wrote much of Linder's FairTax Book and favors small government in general without making a fuss over social issues.

Hice: A Baptist pastor and religious talk-show host who emphasizes "bringing God back to America" and tons of even more extreme nonsense. Oh, and he's plastered interstate billboards across the district with this:

[Bacon King]

Also, read in the Georgia Megathread over in the Gubernatorial board- I totally called Ox in 4th

edit: here's a picture of one of the billboards

[Sam Spade]

It is starting to look like the south might have two Republican women candidate for Governor.

Handel has a much longer way to go in her run-off than Haley did

Can't believe the Ox is in 4th

Runoffs really aren't about "how far you have to go", they're more about what groups make up the undecideds and who actually shows up.

I expect to see some sort of rural/urban divide, but I've been wrong before.

[Lunar]

How much of Deal's win can and/or should be credited to Newt's endorsement [even appearing in TV ads if I recall correctly] at the end?  Certainly, his actual appearance in the run-off is a mild surprise, and pundits like to attribute such things as wins for potential presidential candidates rather than anything that happened on the ground



So, what does the Deal - Handel run-off look like?


Handel is endorsed by Jan Brewer, and Deal is running on a platform of bringing Arizona's laws to Georgia.   Evidence: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qtlKzckj_5s&feature=player_embedded



How did Deal vote on TARP?



Deal seems like he has ethics toublez & a D.C. resume that will put him at a disadvantage.

[Lunar]

Oh man, this Deal ad is so gross:

http://www.youtube.com/user/thedealreel#p/a/u/1/3l2m_-PRDno


The way he says "I'm a man of my word" sounds so patronizing

[Sam Spade]

How much of Deal's win can and/or should be credited to Newt's endorsement [even appearing in TV ads if I recall correctly] at the end? 

How well did Deal run in Newt's old CD?  Or Newt's newer CD?  

With regards to his newer CD, Handel beat everyone handily (no pun intended) in the Atlanta area, but that was to be expected.  Maybe he performed better than otherwise due to the endorsement.

[Lunar]

How much of Deal's win can and/or should be credited to Newt's endorsement [even appearing in TV ads if I recall correctly] at the end?  

How well did Deal run in Newt's old CD?  Or Newt's newer CD?  

I'm not sure.  I haven't been following this race [why would I?], but I do follow D.C. politics, and thus Newt's endorsement broke the threshold to enter into my consciousness, and, I imagine, tons of D.C. reporter type peoples' minds.

The only things I ever remember reading about Nathan Deal on, say, Politico's 2010 stuff:
1) He resigned early, which helped the Democratic majority threshold in the House
2) Ethics troubles
3) Newt endorsement


But to be fair, Newt has a national persona & certainly ran ads and had fans throughout the media market(s) affecting his district.

Palin certainly played a role in Handel's surge, so I imagine that Newt will be at least modestly credited with Deal's odd late surge?  


It seems that Deal based a huge component of his campaign on opposing illegal immigration, which makes Brewer's odd endorsement of Handel even more funky.  Brewer's endorsement being funky, of course, because she hasn't even been elected to her first term yet as governor, but she's making endorsements in Georgia's race [although, admittedly, they were both Secretary of States and probably kind of knew each other].  Probably explains why Brewer's primary challengers are dropping like flies.  How many other governors running for their first full-term make endorsements in primaries on the other side of the country?

[Sam Spade]

How much of Deal's win can and/or should be credited to Newt's endorsement [even appearing in TV ads if I recall correctly] at the end?  

How well did Deal run in Newt's old CD?  Or Newt's newer CD?  

I'm not sure.  I haven't been following this race [why would I?], but I do follow D.C. politics, and thus Newt's endorsement broke the threshold to enter into my consciousness, and, I imagine, tons of D.C. reporter type peoples' minds.

The only things I ever remember reading about Nathan Deal on, say, Politico's 2010 stuff:
1) He resigned early, which helped the Democratic majority threshold in the House
2) Ethics troubles
3) Newt endorsement


But to be fair, Newt has a national persona & certainly ran ads and had fans throughout the media market(s) affecting his district.

Palin certainly played a role in Handel's surge, so I imagine that Newt will be at least modestly credited with Deal's odd late surge?  


It seems that Deal based a huge component of his campaign on opposing illegal immigration, which makes Brewer's odd endorsement of Handel even more funky.  Brewer's endorsement being funky, of course, because she hasn't even been elected to her first term yet as governor, but she's making endorsements in Georgia's race [although, admittedly, they were both Secretary of States and probably kind of knew each other].  Probably explains why Brewer's primary challengers are dropping like flies.  How many other governors running for their first full-term make endorsements in primaries on the other side of the country?

Fwiw, I turn off the TV every time I see Newt coming on.  But then again, I do that for a lot of people, which is the reason why I don't watch many news programs any more.

[Mr. Morden]

Incidentally, on the topic of the Gingrich and Palin endorsements, there's an excellent chance that CA and NY will both move their presidential primaries back to March or later, while GA won't.  Which would make GA the biggest primary on what's currently Super Tuesday.  Thus the 2012 presidential primary in Georgia might actually be important, and it might actually be relevant who gets endorsed by Gov. Handel or Gov. Deal or Gov. Whoever It's Going To Be.

[Meeker]

Barrow ended up only beating Thomas 58-42. Not to sound too Sam Spade-ish but that one turned out how I expected it to.

[Eraserhead]

The Ox is down to fourth place. Ouch.

It turns out he really wasn't much of an Ox at all.

[Holmes]

Oh man, this Deal ad is so gross:

http://www.youtube.com/user/thedealreel#p/a/u/1/3l2m_-PRDno


The way he says "I'm a man of my word" sounds so patronizing

She's just worried about the gays.

[Bacon King]

GOP Gubernatorial Primary map I just made!

Handel wins by carrying the Atlanta metro convincingly, and also performs very well in the Augusta area (by the looks of this I think she targeted that area specifically; in races like this Augusta would "usually" vote like Savannah [or sometimes Athens]. If so, a smart move on the part of the Handel campaign to keep Deal or Johnson from overtaking her). She also won Colombus as well as Macon and its suburbs, narrowly. She performed well in central Georgia generally.

Deal won his CD, and especially Hall county in a rout. He also seems to have done pretty well in the northern part of Broun's district that are pretty similar to Deal's territory.

Johnson wins the Savannah area, but surprisingly failed to gain traction in Augusta. Seems to have some appeal in the white farming areas downstate.

Chapman wins his home county and a bit more in the coastal area.

It looks like Oxendine basically won wherever the "don't vote for Oxendine" meme was too slow to reach. Case in point: 40% of the vote in the Okefenokee swamp, lol. Alternative explanation: all that money he spent on organization throughout the state for two years payed off in letting him win (most of) the areas none of the other candidates payed attention to.

Also, lol ray mcberry.

[Bacon King]

Also, worth noting that there's not really any effect from the Gingrich endorsement in any area he used to represent. His endorsement didn't really amount to much beyond maybe helping Deal a bit with the momentum shift.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Oklahoma up next, OP updated. Probably not a very exciting night.

[Bacon King]

Does OK have a runoff threshold of 50%, or is it one of those places with a rule of "no runoff if one candidate has >X% and at least Y% more than anyone else" or whatever?