University of Arkansas: Hillary +2 on Generic R

[pbrower2a]

Romney won Arkansas in 2012 by about the same margin Obama won Maryland. Just for perspective.

Yeah, but Arkansas is very fond of the Clintons, most voters there are registered Democrats, and President Obama is very deeply hated up there.

Still, imagine a poll showing a certain Republican leading generic D by 2 points in Maryland. When I look at it from that perspective, it's easy to see why the Republicans are in desperation mode trying to bring Hillary down.

A poll showing a generic R up by 2% in Maryland would indicate that the recent D coalition for victory is in trouble and that the Democratic nominee needs a new coalition to win the next Presidential election. The Democratic nominee would have a chance to lose anywhere between 42 and 48 states and get somewhere between 10 and 119 electoral votes. The reason for such a broad range of bad results is that two of the states on the margin would be California and New York. Coalitions can collapse; look at the Carter coalition between 1976 and 1980 or the Hoover coalition between 1928 and 1932.

Arkansas is not 'near' any giant states in electoral votes that would travel with it. Maryland is just blandly and unselectively liberal. Arkansas is less like Texas in its politics than Maryland is like California. The only 'somewhat similar' state in politics to Arkansas with more than ten electoral votes is Georgia. It has had its swings between populism and conservatism. Most of the states that more heavily voted for Romney in 2012 and some that less heavily voted for him in 2012 are 'conservative' for very different reasons.

So what if the Democratic nominee for President were a Mormon who won the blessing of the LDS hierarchy and had a 6% lead in Utah despite being a liberal because he lives a model life for a Mormon? What would that say of any trend outside of Utah? Practically nothing. Such states as Alabama, Nebraska, and Texas are politically conservative for reasons irrelevant to Utah. Did I tell you that the nominee's parents are Samoan? The ten electoral votes of Idaho and Utah are still not enough for the Democrats if they are losing Colorado, Florida, Iowa, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, and one of Pennsylvania and Virginia.
 
As it is, the Democrats show no sign of a collapse of the current coalition of victory, and states like Arkansas, Kentucky, and Louisiana are added layers of icing on a cake.

[pbrower2a]

We need to wait a year before we can predict how such states as Arkansas will go in the 2016 Presidential election. By then we will have Congressional and Senatorial elections to determine whether those states are vulnerable to any Democrat at all.  On the other side, should Republicans pick up open Senate seats in Iowa, Michigan, or Wisconsin, Republicans can have a real chance to win the Presidency.

[pbrower2a]

This is how the electoral map looks at 10:30 PM EDT on the night of Election Day 2014 if Hillary Clinton is going to win much like Obama in 2008 or2012, except with some states much closer but not likely wins:

No state with closed polls is anything other than close if it is not yet called. Polls are still open in the Far West. Iowa is probably about to be called or was just called for Hillary, and one of the other states in pink may or not be called before the states on the West Coast get called. Called states are yellowed and lightened to orange (for Hillary -- 176 electoral votes, 182 with Iowa) or aqua (for the Republican). One of the states in pink and the sure-thing states on the West Coast (84 electoral votes) win it for Hillary.

Now what does it look like with such states as Arkansas, Georgia, Kentucky, and Louisiana are leaning slightly for Hillary?

[pbrower2a]

Hillary Clinton +2 on "Generic R" in Arkansas indicates that a significant part of the hemorrhaging of D-leaning votes has been reversed. In 1996 (in which Bill Clinton won Arkansas by a landslide margin), Clinton won all counties except in the northwestern corner of the state.

It's been a long time since Arkansas was really close in a Presidential campaign other than 1980 (something of a surprise) and 2000. Dubya then won it 51-45, and Gore still won Pulaski County (Little Rock) and most of the counties in the eastern two tiers of the state and a few in the southwest -- but practically nothing to the north and west of US 67 and Interstate 30.  Arkansas seems to go wildly one way or another. It went 69-31 for Nixon in 1972,  60-36 for Reagan in 1984, but 65-35 for Carter in 1976. 

The Ozarks are gone for the Democrats except that the northwestern, somewhat urban counties (Benton, Washington, and maybe Sebastian) would have to get closer. Wal*Mart influence? Wal*Mart is one of the biggest customers for welfare recipients and is one of the biggest transactors in SNAP payments. It has more of a stake in welfare than does Whole Foods.  Hillary would have to pick up northeastern Arkansas (Craighead, Greene, Mississippi), some of whose counties went to Al Gore in 2000.

There could be much nostalgia for Bill Clinton in 2016, especially after the catastrophic failure of Dubya as President in economics (things could be good for a while, and then one got the bill) and of a lopsided recovery under Obama.