Oh, and another thing, this map just shows which states are trending more GOP/Dem compared to each other. If the GOP or the Dems win the nation 60-40 then they will win the states trending against them.
First, a simple four year comparison on a vote for one office is in and of itself an insufficent basis for asserting a 'trend.'
Second, lets look at some of the specific states in which you formula produces a signficant 'trend.':
Connecticut - a Republican trend, or is it just the case Joe Lieberman
was the VP nominee in 2000, which increased the D vote
in that state in 2000?
Tennessee - a Republican trend, or is it just that Al Gore was the
Presidential nominee in 2000, which increase the D vote
in that state in 2000?
N. Carolina - Is it possible that Edwards helped add votes in that state?This is basically the reason for this. NYC bedroom commuters also helped in Connecticut.
No, not McGreevy. Well, maybe a little. But not much. New Jersey this year more moved due to terrorism fears, as did Staten Island.
Not really. The Native American vote got out more (
))))))))))) and South Dakota is historically against incumbnents. Also, most states with lots of libertarian politics trended against Bush.
I have no idea why, but yeah, it does.
I think the south trended more Republican in general this year, while Vermont has been trending Democrat for a while. Kerry was sort of the perfect candidate for Vermont, actually. I think the culture there has fundamentally changed.
Rhode Island probably trended against Kerry because abortion became a major issue this year more than in 2000.
Good analysis, though.
