New numbers
Safe Democrat: CA, DE, FL, HI, MA, NE, NM, NY, ND, WV, WI
OH 94.8
WA 93.0
MN 92.9
PA 92.0
RI 90.4
MI 90.1
NJ 86.0
MD 68.2
MT 67.0
VA 57.0
MO 51.0 (CRITICAL SEAT)
TN 25.0
AZ 16.0
NV 5.0
VT Sanders Safe
CT Lamont 4.4
These are basically the percent chances of a Democrat outcome in the races, right? If so, I really am surprised that Webb is given a 57% chance to win the race because that seems high to me.
Correct. It's based on how people are willing to bet, of course, which doesn't necessarily correspond to the reality of what's likely to happen. But I would say Webb having a 57 percent chance isn't far off personally. I guess it all depends on whether you buy into the idea of a "wave".
