Bunning NOT running for reelection

[Brittain33]

Yeah, "Safe R" is probably an exaggeration. Republicans will to still have to fight and devote attention/resources to the race in order to hold the seat, but I still wouldn't bet much on a takeover. I am disappointed we won't get any crazy Bunning antics though.  The man brought a teleprompter to a debate in 2004. Who knows what he'd do with 6 more years of senility.

So would you agree to "Likely R" or "Lean R"?

I'm in the "Lean R" camp, myself. Jack Conway isn't Barack Obama and 2010 won't be 2006, but it won't be 2004, either.

[Brittain33]

Considering Bunning nearly lost to a nobody in a great Republican year last time, hiding his dementia until October, it would have been at least Likely D. He was not Strom Thurmond.

I say Lean R for now. Grayson is a strong candidate for the Rs and certainly the best they could have come up with, but he's not a superstar, and Conway is at least as strong for the Ds. So it comes down to the state's lean and the presumption Grayson runs a competent campaign.