mencken
Sr. Member
Posts: 2,222
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« on: April 10, 2017, 07:59:29 AM » |
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Based on my cursory analysis of randomly selected counties (I lack the will to go through all ~3,000 at once and observe the trend), I would estimate that between 5-20% of Perot's voters voted for Dukakis in the prior election (and thus would likely have voted for Clinton), 20-30% of Perot's voters voted for Bush in the prior election (and thus would likely have voted for Bush), and 50-70% sat out the prior election (and likely would have sat this one out too). His absence would likely have been sufficient to flip New Hampshire, Ohio, Montana, and Nevada to Bush. New Jersey, Georgia, and Colorado are a bit more difficult to say (Perot's effect was more ambiguous in the South and large urban centers)
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