2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread

[Gass3268]

Lean D. Finally a female rep from PA!

Lean D? This is the MontCo district, should be Safe D.

[Gass3268]

New Roll Call/Inside Elections Ratings:

AZ-02: Toss Up -> Tilts D
CA-10: Leans R -> Tilts R
CA-25: Lean R -> Tilts R
CA-45: Likely R -> Lean R
FL-07: Tilts D -> Lean D
IL-06: Likely R -> Lean R
IA-01: Lean R -> Tilts R
MI-11: Lean R -> Tilts R
NC-13: Solid R -> Likely R
NH-01: Toss Up -> Tilts D
NJ-02: Lean R -> Toss Up
NJ-05: Toss Up -> Tilts D
NJ-07: Likely R -> Lean R
WA-05: Solid R -> Likely R
WA-08: Tilts D -> Toss Up
WI-03: Likely D -> Solid D

Update

[Gass3268]

New Roll Call/Inside Elections Ratings:

AZ-02: Toss Up -> Tilts D
CA-10: Leans R -> Tilts R
CA-25: Lean R -> Tilts R
CA-45: Likely R -> Lean R
FL-07: Tilts D -> Lean D
IL-06: Likely R -> Lean R
IA-01: Lean R -> Tilts R
MI-11: Lean R -> Tilts R
NC-13: Solid R -> Likely R
NH-01: Toss Up -> Tilts D
NJ-02: Lean R -> Toss Up
NJ-05: Toss Up -> Tilts D
NJ-07: Likely R -> Lean R
WA-05: Solid R -> Likely R
WA-08: Tilts D -> Toss Up
WI-03: Likely D -> Solid D

Update

What kind of garbage “expert” has 9 ratings categories? Is “tilts R” or “tilts D” necessary?

Also, what idiot has FL-7 and NJ-5 as only “tilts D” and NJ-2 at “tossup” still?

They have had the most small "c" conservative ratings of all the major prognosticators. Some of these are so behind the times. 

[Gass3268]

@gelliottmorris

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This blue wave is inevitable.

Early voting data for what?

Midterm primaries

[Gass3268]

@gelliottmorris

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This blue wave is inevitable.

Early voting data for what?

Midterm primaries

Which are on March 6.

The official kickoff of the 2018 election cycle.

[Gass3268]

Ossoff will not run again in GA-06

[Gass3268]

Two other important points:

— No Democratic incumbent is now rated worse than Likely Democratic, a nod to the reality that in a Democratic-leaning environment it will be difficult for Republicans to dislodge many or perhaps even any Democratic incumbents, though there are a handful of Democratic open seats that are more viable Republican targets.

— After these ratings changes, for the first time this cycle we have fewer than 218 seats (the number needed for a majority) at least leaning to the Republicans.

Also here is an interesting blog post explaining why OK-05 should be viewed as more competative then it is

[Gass3268]

So many of those Likely and Lean Dems lost.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/971785969950175234



Peek into Democratic spending priorities ahead of the midterms. Definitely looking like they are betting on picking up the House.

The one interesting thing is that there is comparatively very little going into NYC, especially for the number of competitive seats in the market (3 Dem defense, 6 offense with a 7th if the King retirement offers are true).

Nothing in Pennsylvania yet either, maybe they are waiting for all the court proceedings to end?

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/971785969950175234



Peek into Democratic spending priorities ahead of the midterms. Definitely looking like they are betting on picking up the House.

The one interesting thing is that there is comparatively very little going into NYC, especially for the number of competitive seats in the market (3 Dem defense, 6 offense with a 7th if the King retirement offers are true).

Nothing in Pennsylvania yet either, maybe they are waiting for all the court proceedings to end?

The pic is only some of the list, 6ish mpre markets were cut off. NYC is getting 1.3 mil, and philly 3mil for comparison.

Thanks! It is werid at how low the buy in is for New York City. Yet it does make sense that the top markets would be Los Angeles, Minneapolis, and Philadelphia.

[Gass3268]

Crystal Ball Made Some Adjustments:

[Gass3268]

Why would they use the old PA map?

They might be waiting until its 100% offical.

[Gass3268]

Why would they use the old PA map?

They might be waiting until its 100% offical.

Nah, its just a effort for Cook to change their maps after they have put them into effect. Last cycle, they used the old Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia maps all the way through November.

Ugh, that's annoying.