2011 State Elections in Germany

[Tender Branson]

New BW poll by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen/ZDF:

39%  (-5)   CDU
26% (+14) Greens
19%  (-6)   SPD
  5%  (-6)   FDP
  4%  (+1)  Left
  7%  (+2)  Others

Majority for Greens-SPD.

It seems that the Greens have already peaked and the CDU is gaining ground too.

[Tender Branson]

More or less static compared to the Allensbach one. What are you comparing it to?

There were some polls in Sept./Oct. that had the CDU at 30-35% and the Greens at 25-30% or more.

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/baden-wuerttemberg.htm

The sentiment about S21 also seems to have shifted: There are now as many supporters as there are opponents.

[Tender Branson]

What about Schleswig-Holstein ?

Will they vote in 2011 or 2012 now after the court ruling ?

(At least Germany provides an interesting election year 2011, there are almost no good elections anywhere elese in the world next year, maybe Italy ...)

[Tender Branson]

(At least Germany provides an interesting election year 2011, there are almost no good elections anywhere elese in the world next year, maybe Italy ...)

Uh; Spain (regionals), Finland, Turkey, Thailand, Ireland, Wales/Scotland/NI, Argentina, Peru, Denmark, Estonia, Nicaragua don't count?

I must have remembered the 2011 calendar slightly wrong then ...

What about Schleswig-Holstein ?

Will they vote in 2011 or 2012 now after the court ruling ?

(At least Germany provides an interesting election year 2011, there are almost no good elections anywhere elese in the world next year, maybe Italy ...)

September 2012 at the latest.

-------------------------------------------

First post-coalition breakup poll for Hamburg (FGW):

SPD 41%
CDU 22%
Greens 21%
Left 7%
FDP 4%
Others 5%

There's also another poll out today by Psephos for the Hamburger Abendblatt:

45% (+11) SPD
28%  (-15) CDU
14%   (+4) GAL
  6%    (nc) Left
  3%    (-2) FDP
  4%   (+2) Others

[Tender Branson]

Baden-Württemberg,  Infratest dimap (02.12.2010)

CDU  39 %
SPD  18 %
GREEN  28 %
FDP  5 %  
LEFT  5 %
Others  5 %

Well, then let's hope that FDP/Left gets less than 5% and that we see Green-Red, which would have a majority.

[Tender Branson]

2 more state polls by Infratest dimap:

BERLIN:

(voting preferences in the next state elections)



(voting preferences in the next state elections in West and East Berlin)



(historical voting preferences in state elections)



(approval ratings of Berlin politicians)



(direct vote for Berlin mayor)



...

RHEINLAND PFALZ:

(voting preferences in the next state elections)



(direct vote for state governor)

[Tender Branson]

Is Red-Green a done deal in Rheinland-Pfalz ?

[Tender Branson]

Is Red-Green a done deal in Rheinland-Pfalz ?

What else would happen?

SPD-CDU would also be possible.

[Tender Branson]

Quite a few polls out today by Emnid, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen and Forsa:

EMNID (GERMANY)

34%   (nc) CDU/CSU
26%  (+3) SPD
20%  (+9) Greens
10%   (-2) Left
  5% (-10) FDP
  5%   (-1) Others

FORSCHUNGSGRUPPE WAHLEN (GERMANY)

34%   (nc) CDU/CSU
28%  (+5) SPD
19%  (+8) Greens
  9%   (-3) Left
  5% (-10) FDP
  5%   (-1) Others

FORSA (BERLIN STATE ELECTION)

27%    (-4) SPD
25% (+12) Greens
19%    (-2) CDU
15%    (-1) Left
  4%    (-4) FDP
10%    (-1) Others

FORSA (BERLIN FEDERAL ELECTION)

24% (+7) Greens
23% (+3) SPD
23%  (nc) CDU
17%  (-3) Left
  4%  (-8) FDP
  9% (+1) Others

EMNID (BADEN-WÜRTTEMBERG STATE ELECTION)

41%    (-3) CDU
29% (+17) Greens
19%    (-6) SPD
  4%   (+1) Left
  4%    (-7) FDP
  3%    (-2) Others

EMNID (RHEINLAND-PFALZ STATE ELECTION)

39%  (-7) SPD
37% (+4) CDU
11% (+6) Greens
  4% (+1) Left
  4%  (-4) FDP
  5%  (-1) Others

[Tender Branson]

Still waiting for really new polls from Bremen, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and Sachsen-Anhalt.

They also have state elections in 2011 and the last polls are more than 1/2 year old, in MV the last poll is even older than 1 year ...

[Tender Branson]

A new WDR/Infratest-Dimap poll for NRW:

36% (+1) SPD
32%  (-3) CDU
18% (+6) Greens
  5%  (-1) Left
  4%  (-3) FDP
  5% (nc) Others

54-37 majority for SPD-Greens, because the FDP fails to get more than 5%.

[Tender Branson]

Juhu, finally a Bremen poll by Konkret Marktforschung (Wtf?) for the BILD:

33.4% SPD
22.8% CDU
19.4% Greens
  8.5% Left
  5.5% BIW ("Citizenz with a lot of wrath")
  3.3% FDP
  7.1% Others

[Tender Branson]

The Hamburg state election has been set for February 20 btw.

[Tender Branson]

New Bavaria state elections poll by Emnid for the "Bild":

45% (+2) CSU
18%  (-1) SPD
16% (+7) Greens
  6%  (-4) FW
  5% (+1) Left
  5%  (-3) FDP
  5%  (-2) Others

[Tender Branson]

New Bavaria poll by Infratest Dimap:

46% (+3) CSU
17% (+8) Greens
17%  (-2) SPD
  6%  (-2) FDP
  4%  (nc) Left
  4%  (-6) FW
  6%  (-1) Others

Do you support the Olympic Winter Games 2018 in Munich ?

60% Favor
36% Oppose

http://www.br-online.de/bayerisches-fernsehen/kontrovers/index.xml

...

New Berlin poll by Infratest Dimap:

29%    (-2) SPD
25% (+12) Greens
20%    (-1) CDU
17%   (+1) Left
  4%    (-4) FDP
  5%    (-6) Others

http://www.rbb-online.de/nachrichten/politik/2011_01/BerlinTREND.html

Results by West and East Berlin:



Direct vote for Mayor:

[Tender Branson]

New Hamburg poll by Infratest Dimap for the NDR:

43%  (+9) SPD
26% (-17) CDU
17%  (+7) Greens
  5%   (-1) Left
  4%   (-1) FDP
  5%  (+3) Others

Majority for SPD-Greens.

[Tender Branson]

New Forsa poll for Bavaria:

40% CSU
20% Greens
16% SPD
10% FW
  4% Left
  4% FDP
  6% Others

New Forsa poll for Germany:

36% CDU/CSU
24% SPD
20% Greens
  9% Left
  4% FDP
  7% Others

[Tender Branson]

How can a budget be ruled unconstitutional ?

What did they cut or expand so heavily to disqualify it ?

[Tender Branson]

New Sachsen-Anhalt state elections poll:





Interesting how well the Left does, despite the fact that Left frontrunner Wulf Gallert has horrible personal ratings compared with the frontrunners of the CDU and SPD.

[Tender Branson]

What we really need is a Mecklenburg-Vorpommern poll, since the last one is from May 2009.

Today you get what you asked for !

Forsa poll of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern:



http://www.ostsee-zeitung.de/nachrichten/brennpunkt/index_artikel_komplett.phtml?param=news&id=3019085

[Tender Branson]

The NPD @ 5% at this point probably means that they will enter state parliament again.

In the early days of the 2006 campaign, the NPD started with 3% and finally got 7%.

Not that it necessarily has to be so, as was seen in the last Saxony elections ...

[Tender Branson]

Saarland's state premier to leave post this year

Saarland premier Peter Müller announced plans Saturday to step down as the state's top politician and CDU party leader in 2011. The news comes amid speculation that Müller will seek a spot on Germany's Constitutional Court.

Müller has held the top post in Saarland since 1999. He officially announced his intent to resign following a conference of CDU state leaders in his hometown of Eppelborn.

Saarland's Christian Democrats have tapped Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, who is currently serving as social affairs minister, to succeed Müller.

     

Under her party's plan, Kramp-Karrenbauer would be voted in as Müller's replacement after Easter and would take over his position before or after the parliament's summer break.

Since 2009, Müller has been head of a three-party coalition between his Christian Democrats and the Free Democrats and Greens – the only so-called "Jamaica" coalition in any German state.

Müller's decision to step down follows a string of high-profile resignations from prominent Christian Democratic politicians over the past year-and-a-half alone. Both former Hessian state premier Roland Koch and ex-Hamburg Mayor Ole von Beust stepped down in 2010.

Müller said the CDU's state leaders and Chancellor Angela Merkel had given him their blessing.

Before becoming state premier in 1999, the 55-year-old worked as a judge for several years in both district and regional courts.

During a press conference in Eppelborn on Saturday, Müller dodged questions as to whether he was looking to join the German Constitutional Court in Karlsruhe, saying simply he wanted "new challenges." He added there was no need to make any decisions yet.

"There are different options," Müller said.

http://www.thelocal.de/politics/20110122-32601.html

[Tender Branson]

New Rheinland-Pfalz state elections poll by Infratest dimap for the SWR:

37% (+4) CDU
37%  (-9) SPD
13% (+8) Greens
  5% (+3) Left
  5%  (-3) FDP
  3%  (-3) Others

Majority for SPD-Greens.

[Tender Branson]

Scandals Tarnish German Military

By JUDY DEMPSEY
Published: January 25, 2011

BERLIN — In his annual report issued Tuesday, Germany’s ombudsman for the armed forces, Hellmut Königshaus, delivered a harshly critical assessment of training and leadership methods, just as a string of scandals threatened the reputation of the defense minister, Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg, the country’s most popular politician.



After the release of the 70-page report, which garnered wide attention from the media, Mr. Königshaus said that young service members and supervisors had too little experience to see “when boundaries of breach of duty and criminal offense are crossed.”

In normal circumstances, such a report by Mr. Königshaus, a federal lawmaker who a year ago was appointed to be the military ombudsman, would not have received much attention were it not for the scandals of recent weeks.

The scandals have become major news, with Mr. Guttenberg, a suave, ambitious politician, having to bear the brunt of them. They include allegations of a mutiny on a naval training ship last November after a 25-year-old cadet fell to her death from rigging. The ship, the Gorch Fock, is a three-masted sailing vessel used to train naval cadets.

German news reports said that recruits were reluctant to climb the rigging after her death and this led to mistreatment by superior officers.

In December, a soldier serving in Afghanistan was shot and killed after he and his colleagues had been playing with their weapons. The military had reported that the soldier had accidentally shot himself while cleaning his weapon. According to preliminary investigations, however, he was killed by a shot fired by a fellow soldier. Mr. Guttenberg, who regularly visits the 4,700 German troops in Afghanistan, was there last month.

And over the past three months, many letters sent home by German troops in Afghanistan were, according to a report issued last week by Mr. Königshaus, “systematically” opened before delivery. Some envelopes were even empty when they reached their destination.

Analysts say the scandals, which have come to light over the past 10 days, reflect a lack of communication between the military leadership and Mr. Guttenberg — or else that Mr. Guttenberg has been trying to cover up the incidents to protect his reputation, a charge he has denied.

Mr. Guttenberg relieved Norbert Schatz, the commander of the Gorch Fock, of his post last weekend. Opposition leaders said Mr. Guttenberg was reacting too hastily and in his own interest.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/26/world/europe/26iht-germany26.html

[Tender Branson]

It seems like the CDU is finally reaping the rewards of the continued good economic situation (or is something else to "blame" ?). Their poll numbers have gone up significantly in recent weeks.