What will happen in NH?

[Gustaf]

What if Dean loses resoundingly in Iowa? Will he win NH no matter what?

[Gustaf]

I don't think so.  But a bad showing in Iowa could mean a less than specatcular showing in New Hampshire, which could lead to him being upset on "Mini- Super-Tuesday".

I think Dean *could* lose in New Hampshire. But even if he finishes first, but only wins narrowly, it will be seen as a sign of weakness. Most likely, whoever does well in Iowa will get a boost in NH, and thus get the attention from that primary as well. But this is really getting exciting...

[Gustaf]

I was reading Slate the other day, and they had a rather offensive quote from NH.

"Iowans pick corn. We pick presidents"

Well, firstly, we have more evs then you, NH. Plus we are also a swing state.

Also, the results in NH will be skewed, b/c Clark, Lieberman and Sharpton have been campaigning ferociously there.

Nationally their supprot is fairly lw, but in NH it's reasonably high (Clark is around 15% IIRC)

I think Dean will win if he comes 3rd or better in Iowa. If he comes fourth, it will be close.

Also, Iowa is actually better at picking "right", I think. New Hampshire tend t go for outsiders, who don't win anyway.

[Gustaf]

McCain won NH by 19 points, Tsongas won NH in 1992, so I guess that it is safe to say NH goes for the outsiders, hence dean's lead.

That's what I was saying.

[Gustaf]

I was just backing up what you said with some cold info.

Yeah, and I appreciated it, I just formulated my post a little badly...

[Gustaf]

I think that Dean can win but he will fight again like in Iowa. It isnt locked up anymore.

I agree. Why don't you register to vote in the fantasy election of the forum, btw? We need you to beat the Republicans!

[Gustaf]

::does Stewie from "Family Guy" impression::

Damn you all!

"-Are you trying the Jedi mind trick on us?

-No..." -Spin City...

[Gustaf]

Spin City is on late at night.  I get tired, so I don't watch it.

It's on at 6.30 in Sweden...  

[Gustaf]

whoa whoa whoa, i love the west wing... one of my favorite shows.. dont diss on president barlet

I love it too! Register at the fantasy elections! No, wait, that was a little too obvious....

I really do enjoy the West Wing though.

[Gustaf]

whoa whoa whoa, i love the west wing... one of my favorite shows.. dont diss on president barlet

Ew, Martin Sheen..... ::cringe::

I don't like Martin Sheen, just Jed Bartlet.

[Gustaf]

I was reading Slate the other day, and they had a rather offensive quote from NH.

"Iowans pick corn. We pick presidents"

Well, firstly, we have more evs then you, NH. Plus we are also a swing state.

Also, the results in NH will be skewed, b/c Clark, Lieberman and Sharpton have been campaigning ferociously there.

Nationally their supprot is fairly lw, but in NH it's reasonably high (Clark is around 15% IIRC)

I think Dean will win if he comes 3rd or better in Iowa. If he comes fourth, it will be close.

Also, Iowa is actually better at picking "right", I think. New Hampshire tend t go for outsiders, who don't win anyway.

They got it right in 1984 and 1996 and 2000, not right in 1980 and 1988 and 1992.

For the Dems you mean? They voted for McCain didn't they? (or should I say you?)

[Gustaf]

They got it right in 1984 and 1996 and 2000, not right in 1980 and 1988 and 1992.

For the Dems you mean? They voted for McCain didn't they? (or should I say you?)

Right meaning the eventual GOP and Dem nominees. Iowa correctly picked Reagan and Mondale, Clinton and Dole, and Bush and Gore.  
 

Are we talking about Iowa? Lol, I tought it was NH...

[Gustaf]

I think that out of all the candidate, Edwards has the best chance of winning now.  Edwards has personality (which Kerry lacks) and he has the Big Mo'.

I agree with that. Edwards might get overshadowed if he does badly in NH though. I think Edwards should hit NH hard, try to get one of the top 3, or at least a close 4th. That would keep him alive for SC, which is supposed to be his big breakthrough. Kerry is looking strongest right now, b/c he has nothing to lose in NH. The others could all go down in a heart-beat, if they're unlucky.

[Gustaf]

I think that out of all the candidate, Edwards has the best chance of winning now.  Edwards has personality (which Kerry lacks) and he has the Big Mo'.

I agree with that. Edwards might get overshadowed if he does badly in NH though. I think Edwards should hit NH hard, try to get one of the top 3, or at least a close 4th. That would keep him alive for SC, which is supposed to be his big breakthrough. Kerry is looking strongest right now, b/c he has nothing to lose in NH. The others could all go down in a heart-beat, if they're unlucky.

I think Kerry could lose a lot in NH.

The Democrats want earnestly to nominate someone "electable", and seem to be vetting their candidates one at a time.

Kerry's the front-runner, so now he gets the media scrutiny and the attacks (Clark is already on him: "It's one thing to be a hero as a junior officer...but I've had the military leadership at the top as well as the bottom". Yeah, and these guys both want to hand over the war on terror to the UN).

If the play between the story in the media and the NH outcome begins to look bad for Kerry, he could come out of NH crippled, just as Iowa crippled Dean. Then the Dems will look at Clark or Edwards, whoever's on top.

Will they find anyone electable?

You're still hoping for Lieberman, huh?

I don't think Kerry can do worse than the 3rd place he was in until recently. Even if he doesn't catch Dean it will be enough to keep him in the race, considering the Iowa win. If Kerry surges and then drops, it could hurt him though, that I agree to.

[Gustaf]

I think that out of all the candidate, Edwards has the best chance of winning now.  Edwards has personality (which Kerry lacks) and he has the Big Mo'.

I agree with that. Edwards might get overshadowed if he does badly in NH though. I think Edwards should hit NH hard, try to get one of the top 3, or at least a close 4th. That would keep him alive for SC, which is supposed to be his big breakthrough. Kerry is looking strongest right now, b/c he has nothing to lose in NH. The others could all go down in a heart-beat, if they're unlucky.

I think Kerry could lose a lot in NH.

The Democrats want earnestly to nominate someone "electable", and seem to be vetting their candidates one at a time.

Kerry's the front-runner, so now he gets the media scrutiny and the attacks (Clark is already on him: "It's one thing to be a hero as a junior officer...but I've had the military leadership at the top as well as the bottom". Yeah, and these guys both want to hand over the war on terror to the UN).

If the play between the story in the media and the NH outcome begins to look bad for Kerry, he could come out of NH crippled, just as Iowa crippled Dean. Then the Dems will look at Clark or Edwards, whoever's on top.

Will they find anyone electable?

You're still hoping for Lieberman, huh?

I don't think Kerry can do worse than the 3rd place he was in until recently. Even if he doesn't catch Dean it will be enough to keep him in the race, considering the Iowa win. If Kerry surges and then drops, it could hurt him though, that I agree to.

I just can't see Kerry losing to Clark and I think that keeps him in the top two.

Yes, I agree with that. I was just trying to imagine a scenario where Kerry got hurt by NH, like Mort suggested.

[Gustaf]

Let me be the first to badger you about going to the Atlas Fantasy Election section of the board (all the way at the bottom of the forum index page). Register by replying to the thread and choose your preference in the poll in the general election thread. Don't ask why. Resistance is futile. You will be assimilated.

I haven't got 18 yet. When I do I promise to register.

Trying to corrupt juveniles are we, NH?