DENMARK - 5 June 2019 election

[DL]

Pardon me for asking a stupid question but what exactly is the difference between the Alternative List, the Unity List, the Socialist Peoples party - they all seem to be far left parties - why are they three parties and not one?

[Diouf]

The final result should be there in Faroe Islands. The centre-right Union party tops the poll and takes the first seat, while the pro-union Social Democrats take the 2nd seat. So one blue and one red seat.

[Diouf]

Social Democrats just kept the lead in votes in the Copenhagen multi-member constituency. Despite a 5% loss, they finished first at 17.3%, while the Red-Green Alliance finished on 16.8%. Social Liberals ended on 16.4% while the Liberals won 15.0%. However, the Red-Green Alliance lost votes elsewhere and therefore they end up getting their last compensatory seat in Copenhagen. Therefore, they have 4 Copenhagen seats, while Social Democrats, Social Liberals, Liberals and SPP win three seats each. This in all likelyhood means a comeback to parliament for Red-Green 70-year old carpenter Jette Gottlieb, who has been a prominent figure on the Danish left wing for decades. She was a significant member of the Left Socialists' executive committee in the 1970s, and played an important role in uniting the far left parties into the Red-Green Alliance in the end of the 1980s. She was a MP for the Red-Green Alliance from 1994-2001.

[ingemann]

First signs for Christian Democrats in Ringkøbing show the Kristian Andersen effect. With 7.70% counted, the party increases by 7.9% from 5.4% to 13.3% in the counted areas.

What is the profile of the average Christian Democrat voters in Denmark?

Member of Inner Mission (crypto-Calvinist Lutheran group), who is too left wing or anti-abortion to vote for the Liberals, Conservative or Danish People Party.

[ingemann]

Pardon me for asking a stupid question but what exactly is the difference between the Alternative List, the Unity List, the Socialist Peoples party - they all seem to be far left parties - why are they three parties and not one?

Unity List: Old Commies, anarchists and other riff raff from the 70ties.

SPP: Unified democratic Socialist Party, the party for social democrats who think the Social Democrats are too pragmatic and rough, but also still want influence.

Alternative: The party for members of the creative class who don't care about economy.

[Diouf]

The personal votes tomorrow will as always be interesting. For the Alternative in Copenhagen Environs, there are some signs that Sikandar Siddique could be in play for the seat. The party dropped from 4.4% to 3.1% in the constituency, but in immigrant-heavy Brøndby the party increased its vote from 2.8% to 3.2%. And in Taastrup, they only dropped from 4.1% to 3.8%. Could it be the immigrant vote electing Siddique? It might not take a lot of personal votes to get elected.

[H. Ross Peron]

Has Mathe Johan Poulsen kept his seat or not?

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

Greenland’s seats didn’t change. Inuit Ataqatigiit (left wing, pro-independence) and Siumut (slightly less left wing, pro-independence) each retain one seat.

In the Faroes, the Union Party (right-wing, anti-independence) gained a seat, the Social Democratic Party (left wing, anti-independence) kept their seat, and Republic (left wing, pro-independence) lost theirs.

[Diouf]

Greenland’s seats didn’t change. Inuit Ataqatigiit (left wing, pro-independence) and Siumut (slightly less left wing, pro-independence) each retain one seat.

In the Faroes, the Union Party (right-wing, anti-independence) gained a seat, the Social Democratic Party (left wing, anti-independence) kept their seat, and Republic (left wing, pro-independence) lost theirs.

Yes, in Greenland the two big parties each retained a seat. IA declined from 38.3% to 33.4%, while Siumut declined from 38.0% to 29.4%. That was easily enough to hold off other parties. The pro-Union Democrats was closest with 11%, while the two hardcore separatist Nunatta Qitornai and Partii Naleraq won 7.8% and 7.6%.
Siumut will be represented by 22-year old Aki-Matilda Høegh-Dam, while 41-year old incumbent MP Aaja Chemnitz Larsen keeps the seat for IA.

[H. Ross Peron]

Why are the Red-Greens stronger than the SPP in Copenhagen given that the latter is closer in profile to say the German Green Party or the Dutch GL?

[Diouf]

Why are the Red-Greens stronger than the SPP in Copenhagen given that the latter is closer in profile to say the German Green Party or the Dutch GL?

Well, I'm not sure that they are. SPP will have some similarities, but my idea of a core SPP voter is a nurse or a teacher who is somewhat more leftwing than the Social Democrats, which helps explain why they can also do decently in areas like Western Jutland. Alternative and Red-Green Alliance have a strong appeal to students and graduates, while Social Liberals draw more from the high earners with long educations, at least in Copenhagen. These are crude profiles. There will probably be more detailed voter analyses later.

[Diouf]

MP Henrik Dahl from Liberal Alliance, who looks likely to take one of the party's 4 seats in Southern Jutland, has made a visceral attack on the party leadership.

"Anders Samuelsen's leadership of the party has been filled with nepotism. Thyra Frank became a minister without any of the qualitites required to fill that role. She has been a laughing stock for three years. Emperor Nero appointed his horse a senator which is slightly weirder, but we are in that category.

Anders Samuelsen has outplayed his role. We have had three electoral defeats in a row. We need a leader with credibility if we are to survive as a party. We need a fresh leader, who isn't compromised by all of our defeats and the terrible and untrustworthy policies in governemnt. Alex Vanopslagh was a great leader for LA Youth, and I'm sure he could become a great leder for the Liberal Alliance.

The party leadership has carried out these horrible policies in an extreme top-down fashion. The policies have been foisted upon us via SMS messages with no room for input. I have warned several times about out line internally. We haven't had any visible advantages of taking part in the government, and it has hindered us from espousing clear, liberal policies. We had ministries on areas, which out voters didn't care about. "

[Diouf]

Has Mathe Johan Poulsen kept his seat or not?

He does not have a seat currently? From what I can see, he is a new candidate for the Social Democrats in Gentofte in Copenhagen Environs. The party remains at 4 seats there, but I doubt he will win a seat. There seem to be other candidates who are normally more popular. And in Gentofte, the party dropped from 17.4% to 11.6%

[Diouf]

Liberal Alliance leader and foreign minister Anders Samuelsen resigns. Quite logical since he couldn't even keep his own seat. He recommends his deputy Simon Emil Ammitzbøll-Bille, minister of Economy and Interior, to take over. However, the decision is made by the parliamentary group (where there are only 4 now). Henrik Dahl has already pointed towards Alex Vanopslagh, so he already has 2 votes. Ammitzbøll can vote for himself as well. Then there's Minister of Transportation, Ole Birk Olesen left. I think the most logical for the party would be to go for the brand new start and pick Vanopslagh.

[DavidB.]

Why are the Red-Greens stronger than the SPP in Copenhagen given that the latter is closer in profile to say the German Green Party or the Dutch GL?

In addition to what Diouf said: the SPP aren't all that comparable to GL in terms of public that they attract and in terms of 'targeting', even though their policies should be pretty similar.

Young 'alternative' people (left-wing students, younger graduates who don't make much money, creative sector people) who'd vote GL in NL (and would never vote SP) would consider the Red-Greens as one of their most serious options in Denmark, together with the Alternative and (perhaps a little less so) the SPP.

[Diouf]

A lot of interesting personal vote stories ongoing. Will try to catch up later.
Liberal Minister of Immigration Inger Støjberg seems like she is getting far more personal votes than Minister of Finance and deputy leader Kristian Jensen in their Western Jutland constituency. Another argument for those in the party who don't want Jensen to replace Løkke.
The expected future Finance Minister, Henrik Sass Larsen, is currently on the edge in terms of winning a seat despite the Social Democrats winning 8 seats in his Zealand constituency. He has a deeply unpleasant attitude, but I didn't think he could drop this low in personal votes. Currently on the 8th of 8 seats for the party, but could drop to 9th.
Sikandar Siddique looks likely to win the Alternative seat in Copenhagen Environs.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Will Thulesen Dahl be able to survive as leader for Danish People's Party after they lost even more than people expected them to loose? If it was any other party the knife's would obviously be out, but the populist-right parties seem to be more lenient on their leaders.

 

[Intell]

How was the vote in migrant areas compared to previous elections.

[Diouf]

Will Thulesen Dahl be able to survive as leader for Danish People's Party after they lost even more than people expected them to loose? If it was any other party the knife's would obviously be out, but the populist-right parties seem to be more lenient on their leaders.

I can't see any challenge to him. It seems that most in the party largely agreed with their strategy, and are quite shellshocked by the implosion since January. Morten Messerschmidt looks like the only potential other leader in the party, and he is just re-entering the national parliament now after two terms in the EP. I don't see him making any moves to take over. I think they will focus on peace and re-building now.

[Diouf]

Lars Løkke Rasmussen has been at the queen to resign. All the parties then sent representatives to announce who they believe should be given the chance to form a government. Social Democrats, SPP, Social Liberals and Red-Green Alliance all pointed towards Mette Frederiksen. Liberals, DPP, Liberal Alliance and Conservatives preferred Lars Løkke Rasmussen, while Alternative suggested Uffe Elbæk and New Right suggested Pernille Vermund.
Since a majority pointed towards Mette Frederiksen, she has been appointed as formateur. However, the parties supporting her made different conditions.
Social Liberals said that a new government should set a new course for Denmark. This includes a responsible economic policy as a foundation for investments in science and education, a commitment to a green transformation which ensures the goals in the Paris Agreement are met, a fight against poverty, improved integration, ensure civil rights for all citizens and strengthen Denmark's role in Europe and the World.
SPP are backing Mette Frederiksen on the condition she will form a multi-party government which includes some or all parties from the red-green family (Social Liberals, Alternative, SPP, Red-Green Alliance).
Red-Green Alliance says that they would allow the formation of a Social Democrat-led government based on the left-wing parties if negotiations regarding such a government's political course end up with a result that is acceptable to the party.

Since Mette Frederiksen's stated goal is a Social Democrat minority government, we will likely have at least one more round at the queen, where SPP removes their condition of a multi-party government. The question is how long it will take. Frederiksen has announced that she will meet with all parties in parliament in the days ahead to listen to their thoughts about possible cooperation, but that her goal remains building a government with support from the Red Bloc parties.

[Diouf]

All the personal votes are now counted, so unless mistakes have been made somewhere, we know now the final composition of parliament.

The Social Democrats ended on 48 seats, 1 more than in 2015. The party lost a seat in Copenhagen, but gained one in both Northern and Southern Jutland. The party's loss in Copenhagen meant a goodbye to two-term MP Yildiz Akdogan, but elsewhere there was re-election for many incumbent MPs. Henrik Sass Larsen, who is parliamentary group leader and expected finance minister, barely got elected on the 8th and final Social Democrat seat in Zealand. He was only 9th in personal votes, but because his votes were spread across the constituency, he gained just enough list votes to win the seat. He has a very important role in the party, but is not very popular among the voters. In 2011, the expectation was also that he was to be Finance Minister, but Thorning would not appoint him as the security services didn't grant him security clearance due to his tight relations to a corrupt local party boss with a biker gang hangaround. He then worked himself back during the term, succesfully challenged the security clearance verdict and was made Minister of Economy. He has played a significant part in the new Social Democrat strategy with tougher immigration policies. His attitude in public has become worse and worse. He seems arrogant and super-agressive with constant banal attacks against other politicians and the media in particular. He didn't show up for meetings in his well-paid state auditor role. It is still assumed that he will become Finance Minister, but there probably won't be much room for his usual loose cannon remarks.
Mette Frederiksen had a great personal election in Northern Jutland (43 489) which topped the nationwide list. Other big names like Nicolai Wammen, Dan Jørgensen, Magnus Heunicke, Astrid Krag, Mattias Tesfaye and Pernille Rosenkrantz-Theil had really good results, and are expected to get important positions in the ministerial team.
The party probably also dodged a bullet as political commentator and former newspaper editor David Trads was not elected. He is like the worst caricature of a political commentator with neverending sensational headlines, which can easily change 180 degrees from week to week. For several years, he has been known as very left wing on immigration and critical of the Social Democrat right-wing turn, and then suddenly he was announced as a candidate for them. I cannot fathom why an area in Northern Zealand went with him as candidate, but luckily the voters rejected him as he only finished 5th among the Social Democrat who only won three seats there.

The Liberals ended on 43 seats, 9 up. The party won seats in many parts of the country. Lars Løkke Rasmussen had a good result, winning 40 075 personal votes, enough for second place overall. However, Finance Minister and deputy leader Kristian Jensen saw his star fade severely in Western Jutland. He was safely re-elected but only achieved 10 759 personal votes, while Minister of Immigration, Inger Støjberg, won 28 420 personal votes. Another potential contender, Minister of Food and Environment, Jakob Ellemann-Jensen, did really well in Eastern Jutland with 19 388 votes, and along with Minister of Science and Higher Education, Tommy Ahlers with 26 420 votes, ensured that Liberals did really well in Aarhus and Copenhagen. Løkke Rasmussen seems likely to stay in place, at least until there is certainty about Frederiksen's ability to form a government. One would probably expect him to leave within reasonable time, especially since he wrote in his new book that he had promised his wife to quit during the recently finished term. However, Jensen is probably in a weaker position to force the matter now, if Løkke should decide to stay on for longer. And Løkke and potential Jensen rivals might like to protract things a bit to give Jensen's challengers an even better time to groom their candidacies.
I'm sad to see that journalist Anna Libak just missed out in a three-way battle for the two last seats in Northern Zealand. She was only around 200 personal votes away from taking the seat of veteran Defence Minister, Claus Hjort Frederiksen. Another famous candidate from the immigration-critial wing of the party, US expert, Mads Fuglede was elected, but had the advantage of being a replacement MP for some of the recent term. Finally, the party saw a couple of their young hopes elected. Former Liberal Youth leader and local councillor, 30-year old Morten Dahlin won a seat in Zealand, 33-year old councillor Marlene Ambo-Rasmussen was elected in Funen, and most promising of all, the 33-year old lawyer Marie Bjerre who broke through in Northen Jutland with 8 627 personal votes.

[DL]

Pardon me for asking a stupid question but what exactly is the difference between the Alternative List, the Unity List, the Socialist Peoples party - they all seem to be far left parties - why are they three parties and not one?

Unity List: Old Commies, anarchists and other riff raff from the 70ties.

SPP: Unified democratic Socialist Party, the party for social democrats who think the Social Democrats are too pragmatic and rough, but also still want influence.

Alternative: The party for members of the creative class who don't care about economy.

Thank you now another stupid question - what exactly is the difference between Ventre, the Conservatives and the Liberal Alliance? They also sound like three virtually identical parties that in most other countries they would be all one party

[Antonio the Sixth]

Since Mette Frederiksen's stated goal is a Social Democrat minority government, we will likely have at least one more round at the queen, where SPP removes their condition of a multi-party government. The question is how long it will take. Frederiksen has announced that she will meet with all parties in parliament in the days ahead to listen to their thoughts about possible cooperation, but that her goal remains building a government with support from the Red Bloc parties.

How the heck can Fredriksen insist that she's entitled to a minority government when SD makes up barely half of the total seats for the Red bloc? That would be incredibly undemocratic. At the very least RV and SF deserve representation, if the hard-lefties are a bridge too far.

[Diouf]

DPP was completely crushed and only won 16 seats, down 21. The largest decline in Danish parliamentary history. Kristian Thulelsen Dahl, who won the personal vote list clearly in 2015, was down to 8th place this time with 23 119 personal votes. The party's old guard with Speaker Pia Kjærsgaard, Foreign Policy spokesperson Søren Espersen and parliamentary group leader Peter Skaarup all survived, but several of their most prominent spokespersons lost their seat. Spokesperson on justice, Peter Kofod, had already left to join the European Parliament, but yesterday spokesperson on immigration Martin Henriksen lost his Copenhagen seat and EU spokesperson Kenneth Kristensen Berth lost his seat in Copenhagen Environs. So the spokespersons in their perhaps three most important areas are all gone. Other notable losses are for spokesperson on transportation, Kim Christiansen, and spokesperson on fisheries, Ib Poulsen, who have been in a constant war with the government ministers on their brief. Two-term MEP Morten Messerschmidt returns to parliament and will give them some needed firepower, but he also attracted less votes than expected (7 554 personal votes). They almost had a surprise addition to their parliamentary group from Northern Jutland. The unknown local councillor Kim Edberg Andersen hired the most well-known social media campaign consultant in the country who helped him run an amazing campaign. He finished ahead of two of the incumbent DPP MPs in third, only around 300 votes from second place. But the DPP decline from 4 to 2 seats meant that he just failed to enter parliament.

The Social Liberals doubled their tally from 8 to 16. Party leader Morten Østergaard did decently in terms of personal votes with 17 687, but the party's top scorer was former SPP Environment Minister, Ida Auken, who won 21 723 personal votes in Copenhagen (10th highest overall). Former Foreign Minister, Martin Lidegaard, who is seen as the leader of the more compromise-seeking wing of the party, topped the personal vote list in Northern Zealand with 12 703 votes. Former Liberal MEP Jens Rohde entered parliament in Copenhagen and former Climate Minister Rasmus Helveg Petersen ensured that the political dynasty is again represented in parliament. They also saw a handful of fresh faces elected, among them the first election of a wheelchair bound person, the 28-year old local councillor Kristian Hegaard with a rare bone disease.

[Diouf]

Since Mette Frederiksen's stated goal is a Social Democrat minority government, we will likely have at least one more round at the queen, where SPP removes their condition of a multi-party government. The question is how long it will take. Frederiksen has announced that she will meet with all parties in parliament in the days ahead to listen to their thoughts about possible cooperation, but that her goal remains building a government with support from the Red Bloc parties.

How the heck can Fredriksen insist that she's entitled to a minority government when SD makes up barely half of the total seats for the Red bloc? That would be incredibly undemocratic. At the very least RV and SF deserve representation, if the hard-lefties are a bridge too far.

Well, if you find minority governments undemocratic, then you better not look at the history of Danish governments as you will get quite disappointed. I mean, in the first 1.5 year of the most recent term we had a one-party minority government with only 34 seats. Frederiksen's argument is that a one-party Social Democrat government would be the most maneuverable option as it will be able to find different majorities in different areas, thereby facilitating the different majorities among the voters on different issues. Social Liberals are too far away on economy and migration, and very few Social Democrats want to repeat the 2011-2015 experience. SPP seems like the only party with a (tiny) chance of entering the government. On welfare spending, climate, education, the parties could probably find common ground, but Social Democrats will have doubt about the immigration issue and the party's ability to function in government after the chaotic experience in 2011-2014 before they dropped out.