Louisiana Nov 16, 2019 Run-Off Election Results thread

[DINGO Joe]

Can Edwards net another 4K from the remaining Baton Rouge votes? If he does, Democrats will have won the overall vote for the 2019 gubernatorial races.

Mississippi is always crap at updating their numbers, the final margin there looks to be about 45,000, but I ain't digging county by county to figure it out.

[smoltchanov]

Glad to see that Edwards has won reelection. We need more Democrats like him.

+100. Democratic (as well as Republican) candidates in different states must be different too. VERY glad, that Edwards won.

[n1240]

JBE's performance in the largest parishes compared to DK's benchmarks (the one in the comments that corrects for the obvious ceiling in NOLA):

EBR: EVEN
Jefferson: EVEN
Orleans: -2
St. Tammany: -1
Caddo: +1
Lafayette: EVEN
Calcasieu: +1
Ouachita: +5
Livingston: -2
Rapides: +2
Ascension: EVEN
Tangipahoa: +1
Bossier: +1
Terrebonne: -2
Lafourche: -3

Overall was +1, of course, since it was calibrated for a 50/50 outcome.

Not sure if this was mentioned yet, but increased turnout in Orleans seemed to be pretty big for JBE, turnout was up about 12% statewide, but 29% in Orleans, relative to the first round. On the other hand, some parishes with lower turnout than the first round tended to be solid Republican parishes (Vernon, Vermillion, Beauregard, etc.)

[Adam Griffin]

Can Edwards net another 4K from the remaining Baton Rouge votes? If he does, Democrats will have won the overall vote for the 2019 gubernatorial races.

I assume there will be a few thousand provisional ballots for LA statewide that will lean heavily (say 2:1) in favor of JBE, but we won't know for several days.

[Lourdes]

https://twitter.com/ashtonpittman/status/1195926921269456896

lmao

[We Live in Black and White]

Yeah. Dems doing badly in the suburbs is really bad for us if it keeps up, and there's no denying that. That's why we need Nikki Haley on the ballot in 2024.

Her chances of ever winning a Republican primary ended when she took down the Confederate flag at the SC statehouse.

Yawn. "Muh racist Republicans"

I note you did absolutely nothing to refute the argument.

[lfromnj]

I was ALMOST EXACTLY RIGHT,
+2.5 JBE vs +2.67

[DINGO Joe]

Man, it's hard enough watching election results when it's close, but imagine being at a house party watching LSU playing and letting Ole Miss stay in the game way too long, while at the same time following election returns. Like being on two roller coasters at the same time.

[Adam Griffin]

The final swing map:



As I mentioned earlier, I'm still impressed by the scope of JBE's turnout apparatus. Even if he had done no better than he did in 2015 in the counties that swung to him, he'd have pulled this off by around 10k votes. Not that he did anything whatsoever to justify the rural swings against him, but he lost just the "right" amount of them to still pull this thing off even if Orleans, Jefferson & St Tammany hadn't moved in his direction.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Man, it's hard enough watching election results when it's close, but imagine being at a house party watching LSU playing and letting Ole Miss stay in the game way too long, while at the same time following election returns. Like being on two roller coasters at the same time.

Can’t wait till Oregon takes you guys down in the playoffs

[smoltchanov]

How many seats did Dems pickup in the LA statehouse?

1. HD-105 Nut - lost HD-50, so it's a wash today (Democrats lost 5-6 sets in October, and couple - in state Senate)

[Gass3268]

JBE only won CD-02.

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1195933720462725120?s=20

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

The final swing map:



As I mentioned earlier, I'm still impressed by the scope of JBE's turnout apparatus. Even if he had done no better than he did in 2015 in the counties that swung to him, he'd have pulled this off by around 10k votes. Not that he did anything whatsoever to justify the rural swings against him, but he lost just the "right" amount of them to still pull this thing off even if Orleans, Jefferson & St Tammany hadn't moved in his direction.

Here are some more precise numbers on turnout:

https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1195934409398083586

[Frodo]

How many seats did Dems pickup in the LA statehouse?

Just one, but they held another. Enough to prevent the supermajority.

So what do you think will the final numbers be when everything is tallied up?

For comparison, here's what the legislature looked like this summer:

Senate

Republicans: 25
Democrats: 14

House

Republicans: 60
Democrats: 39
independents: 5
vacancy: 1

[Adam Griffin]

https://twitter.com/ashtonpittman/status/1195926921269456896

lmao

"rum"
"Oresidemt"
"Vongrrss"
*kooky conspiracies*

Key word is definitely "rum": you can see it kicking in mid-post!

[smoltchanov]

The final swing map:



As I mentioned earlier, I'm still impressed by the scope of JBE's turnout apparatus. Even if he had done no better than he did in 2015 in the counties that swung to him, he'd have pulled this off by around 10k votes. Not that he did anything whatsoever to justify the rural swings against him, but he lost just the "right" amount of them to still pull this thing off even if Orleans, Jefferson & St Tammany hadn't moved in his direction.

Yeah. But Democratic collapse in Acadiana and vicinities is also notable

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/ashtonpittman/status/1195926921269456896

lmao

"rum"
"Oresidemt"
"Vongrrss"
*kooky conspiracies*

Key word is definitely "rum": you can see it kicking in mid-post!

Donald Trump really was tailor-made for them. He wasn't enough to stop their state from re-electing a "radical Marxist, Socialist, Squad-proxy though."

[Oryxslayer]

How many seats did Dems pickup in the LA statehouse?

Just one, but they held another. Enough to prevent the supermajority.

So what do you think will the final numbers be when everything is tallied up?

For comparison, here's what the legislature looked like this summer:

Senate

Republicans: 25
Democrats: 14

House

Republicans: 60
Democrats: 39
independents: 5
vacancy: 1

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1195910246537011200

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1195919213912825857

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump campaigned for Ripose, he wasnt the right GOPer to win, Kennedy was the electable one

[DINGO Joe]

Man, it's hard enough watching election results when it's close, but imagine being at a house party watching LSU playing and letting Ole Miss stay in the game way too long, while at the same time following election returns. Like being on two roller coasters at the same time.

Can’t wait till Oregon takes you guys down in the playoffs

Do they still play football on the West coast?

[Bidenworth2020]

where can i see the victory speech from jbe?

[Adam Griffin]

For those of you who weren't following, here is each parish's 2015/2019 results + swings in spreadsheet form:

2015/2019 LA Gov Results/Swings

Biggest Swings:
Cameron: 48.85 points
Avoyelles: 38.61 points
Jeff Davis: 37.88 points
Evangeline: 36.28 points
Allen: 35.15 points
Beauregard: 33.06 points
Vernon: 31.50 points
Vermilion: 30.32 points
St. Martin: 29.78 points
Acadia: 29.05 points

[libertpaulian]

where can i see the victory speech from jbe?

Here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i24jrfIEjXs

And if you want to watch Rispone's concession, which is the biggest load of word salad I've ever heard, go here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oLZZ4Ee0ie0

[Frodo]

How many seats did Dems pickup in the LA statehouse?

Just one, but they held another. Enough to prevent the supermajority.

So what do you think will the final numbers be when everything is tallied up?

For comparison, here's what the legislature looked like this summer:

Senate

Republicans: 25
Democrats: 14

House

Republicans: 60
Democrats: 39
independents: 5
vacancy: 1

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1195910246537011200
https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1195919213912825857

So as of January 2020 when the new legislature is sworn in, this is going to be the final breakdown?

Senate

Republicans: 28
Democrats: 11

House

Republicans: 68
Democrats: 35
independents: 2

Revised.

[Devout Centrist]

Yeah. Dems doing badly in the suburbs is really bad for us if it keeps up, and there's no denying that. That's why we need Nikki Haley on the ballot in 2024.

Just because the GOP nominee is a female who so happens to not be White American doesn't mean suburban voters are suddenly going to flock back.

Sure, but she also has the kind of tempermant, demeanor, and common sense conservative policies that have won us the suburbs before. Plus, one of the big reasons for the suburban trend left is that the GOP is perceived as intolerant of non-white voters (a problem as the suburbs become more diverse). She can help fix that perception.

How does she get nominated?

By being popular with both the Trumpist

There are people who are more popular with them than her and more authentic than her.

and Non-Trumpist wings of the party, like she is now?

And I'm sure they'll love her hard pivot to 'trumpism'?

Here's what's gonna happen: Haley will run, piss off the 'non-trumpists' by tilting hard to the right, get attacked by the true believers for not standing by Trump 100% of the time, and get 3% of the vote in the primary.