Ireland General Discussion

[CumbrianLefty]

I know nothing about this company and some of the results - particularly the high votes for the Greens and the decaying husk officially referred to as the Irish Labour Party - I am extremely skeptical about. It doesn't help that almost all the "broadsheet" newspapers are by this stage fluffers for FG.

And any reason why support for the SD's should have almost halved?

[ObserverIE]

I know nothing about this company and some of the results - particularly the high votes for the Greens and the decaying husk officially referred to as the Irish Labour Party - I am extremely skeptical about. It doesn't help that almost all the "broadsheet" newspapers are by this stage fluffers for FG.

And any reason why support for the SD's should have almost halved?

They seem to be weighing by recall of past vote which might explain that people might forget or be unwilling to admit that they voted for the Greens or Labour, thereby inflating their vote now, and might have an opposite effect for the SocDems, but as I said, there's no past form for this pollster other than the fact that its leading figures seem to have come from RedC (which I don't rate especially highly).

[ObserverIE]

Our tinpot Nazis are having a normal one:

https://twitter.com/JohnOBrennan2/status/1782151303168151880

Disclaimer: I went to school with Reynolds and while he is undoubtedly an idiot, he was still able to outsmart Littler here.

[ObserverIE]

RedC for the Business Post:

SF 27 (+2)
Ind/Oth 21 (+2)
FG 20 (+1)
FF 14 (-2)
SD 6 (-)
Aontú 4 (-1)
GP 3 (-1)
Lab 3 (-)
SWP/SP 2 (-1)

The International Protection cluster**** seems to be helping the Independent/RON surge to the point where they're now ahead of both government parties (I am skeptical that FF are *quite* as low as this - panel polls traditionally underestimate them - but it's not a good look).

[LabourJersey]

RedC for the Business Post:

SF 27 (+2)
Ind/Oth 21 (+2)
FG 20 (+1)
FF 14 (-2)
SD 6 (-)
Aontú 4 (-1)
GP 3 (-1)
Lab 3 (-)
SWP/SP 2 (-1)

The International Protection cluster**** seems to be helping the Independent/RON surge to the point where they're now ahead of both government parties (I am skeptical that FF are *quite* as low as this - panel polls traditionally underestimate them - but it's not a good look).

Getting below 17.5 percent (2011's result) would be pretty devastating for FF, wouldn't it? Especially since they seem to be the Irish version of a "natural party of government" a la the Canadian Liberals

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

RedC for the Business Post:

SF 27 (+2)
Ind/Oth 21 (+2)
FG 20 (+1)
FF 14 (-2)
SD 6 (-)
Aontú 4 (-1)
GP 3 (-1)
Lab 3 (-)
SWP/SP 2 (-1)

The International Protection cluster**** seems to be helping the Independent/RON surge to the point where they're now ahead of both government parties (I am skeptical that FF are *quite* as low as this - panel polls traditionally underestimate them - but it's not a good look).

Getting below 17.5 percent (2011's result) would be pretty devastating for FF, wouldn't it? Especially since they seem to be the Irish version of a "natural party of government" a la the Canadian Liberals

Every FF leader ever has served as Taoiseach at some point.

[Harlow]

Our tinpot Nazis are having a normal one:

https://twitter.com/JohnOBrennan2/status/1782151303168151880

Disclaimer: I went to school with Reynolds and while he is undoubtedly an idiot, he was still able to outsmart Littler here.

Why does this seem really camp.

[ObserverIE]

RedC for the Business Post:

SF 27 (+2)
Ind/Oth 21 (+2)
FG 20 (+1)
FF 14 (-2)
SD 6 (-)
Aontú 4 (-1)
GP 3 (-1)
Lab 3 (-)
SWP/SP 2 (-1)

The International Protection cluster**** seems to be helping the Independent/RON surge to the point where they're now ahead of both government parties (I am skeptical that FF are *quite* as low as this - panel polls traditionally underestimate them - but it's not a good look).

Getting below 17.5 percent (2011's result) would be pretty devastating for FF, wouldn't it? Especially since they seem to be the Irish version of a "natural party of government" a la the Canadian Liberals

This is an unpopular government which largely hasn't realized it is unpopular, partly because of a friendly mainstream media that views it as the Last Bastion Of All That Is Good And Wholesome Against The Shinner Scum and partly because there have been no electoral tests since the 2020 election barring a bye-election in the wealthiest and most atypical constituency in the country in the summer of 2021 which resulted in a Pyrrhic victory for an otherwise moribund Labour Party.

The FG component has borked housing through five years of complete inactivity between 2011 and 2016 as a result of listening to media and academic commentary at the time that told them that the ghost estates after the 2008 crash meant that we would never need to build any housing ever again. The loss of their majority after 2016 and the need for FF support/tolerance to continue in government meant that housing did resume but everything that is being done is being done about five years too late and, as in Canada, large-scale labour immigration means that the official housing targets are way behind what's actually needed. And housing is either the cause of every other problem or is exacerbating it.

While not on the same scale as the UK, wages have not kept pace with inflation over the last couple of years and people who continually hear about massive economic growth but see none of its fruits in their own living standards become dissatisfied. And while public services and infrastructure have not been gutted as they have been in the UK (we were not fool enough to give FG a majority in 2016) they have struggled to keep pace with the population increase.

The Greens have been given pretty much all they wanted on their pet areas of government and have proceeded to do things that make very little difference in the grand scheme of things but which do succeed in antagonising normie voters.

On top of labour immigration, we've had a proportionately large number of Ukrainian refugees (now about 2% of the population) but what has lit the spark has been a post-Covid boom in International Protection applicants, most of whom are coming from countries such as Algeria, Georgia, Nigeria, and South Africa which are not generally considered war zones or hell-holes. The IP system has long been slow and inefficient, with an appeal process meaning that most applicants are able to continue living in the country long enough to attain leave to remain. Any deportation mechanism for people finally refused asylum is equally as dilatory as the appeals process. In addition, there were a number of well-intentioned decisions (allowing asylum applicants to work after six months, a well-publicised amnesty for existing illegal immigrants, a well-publicised promise of own-door accommodation rather than direct provision - which has now had to be long-fingered because of pressure on housing) which have become pull factors.

The ministers in charge are a doe-eyed but ideological innocent from the Green Party and a complete incompetent from FG who has been given a pass from the (supportive) media up until now because she is blonde and proves that she is a Girl Boss by spending most of her time on maternity leave. The numbers coming mean that there is no longer any space in the official reception centres so hotels (mostly but not always disused), office blocks, and factories are being called into service and most of these are either in - often quite isolated - rural areas or in working-class inner-city areas or industrial suburbs.

It's essentially a cocktail of the same mistakes that have been made in Canada, Sweden and the UK and it has finally produced the same sort of backlash that has occurred in those countries. Thankfully our would-be far-right are either too weird or too obviously scumbaggish to be an electoral (as opposed to a security) threat but there's no guarantee that that (relatively) happy situation will continue.

FF are in some ways the fall-guys in all of this - they're arguably the least aggravating component of the current coalition in that they haven't been there for thirteen years unlike FG and they're not preachy and incompetent meddlers like the Greens but they're also the least defined component. The rebrand by Martin tried to detoxify FF by making it as different as possible from pre-2008 FF (socially-liberal, economically centre-left, agnostic on UI) but it has also removed the feeling that FF Got Things Done (even if they had to cut ethical corners to do so). Being beige is not a positive, at least not now.

[CumbrianLefty]

So how much of the sizeable current "Independent" support in polls is actually far/populist right?

[ObserverIE]

So how much of the sizeable current "Independent" support in polls is actually far/populist right?

A lot of it is proxy for p***ed-off (with things in general) and populist independents of various degrees of rightness are the natural beneficiaries of that given that the various left parties have gone down assorted rabbit-holes rather than dealing with issues that the voters are actually concerned with. I remain hopeful that the actual far right (actual, as opposed to a label that the Trot and Yank-brained left slap on anyone who disagrees with them) are too weird and offputting to gain traction.

[LabourJersey]

RedC for the Business Post:

SF 27 (+2)
Ind/Oth 21 (+2)
FG 20 (+1)
FF 14 (-2)
SD 6 (-)
Aontú 4 (-1)
GP 3 (-1)
Lab 3 (-)
SWP/SP 2 (-1)

The International Protection cluster**** seems to be helping the Independent/RON surge to the point where they're now ahead of both government parties (I am skeptical that FF are *quite* as low as this - panel polls traditionally underestimate them - but it's not a good look).

Getting below 17.5 percent (2011's result) would be pretty devastating for FF, wouldn't it? Especially since they seem to be the Irish version of a "natural party of government" a la the Canadian Liberals

This is an unpopular government which largely hasn't realized it is unpopular, partly because of a friendly mainstream media that views it as the Last Bastion Of All That Is Good And Wholesome Against The Shinner Scum and partly because there have been no electoral tests since the 2020 election barring a bye-election in the wealthiest and most atypical constituency in the country in the summer of 2021 which resulted in a Pyrrhic victory for an otherwise moribund Labour Party.

The FG component has borked housing through five years of complete inactivity between 2011 and 2016 as a result of listening to media and academic commentary at the time that told them that the ghost estates after the 2008 crash meant that we would never need to build any housing ever again. The loss of their majority after 2016 and the need for FF support/tolerance to continue in government meant that housing did resume but everything that is being done is being done about five years too late and, as in Canada, large-scale labour immigration means that the official housing targets are way behind what's actually needed. And housing is either the cause of every other problem or is exacerbating it.

While not on the same scale as the UK, wages have not kept pace with inflation over the last couple of years and people who continually hear about massive economic growth but see none of its fruits in their own living standards become dissatisfied. And while public services and infrastructure have not been gutted as they have been in the UK (we were not fool enough to give FG a majority in 2016) they have struggled to keep pace with the population increase.

The Greens have been given pretty much all they wanted on their pet areas of government and have proceeded to do things that make very little difference in the grand scheme of things but which do succeed in antagonising normie voters.

On top of labour immigration, we've had a proportionately large number of Ukrainian refugees (now about 2% of the population) but what has lit the spark has been a post-Covid boom in International Protection applicants, most of whom are coming from countries such as Algeria, Georgia, Nigeria, and South Africa which are not generally considered war zones or hell-holes. The IP system has long been slow and inefficient, with an appeal process meaning that most applicants are able to continue living in the country long enough to attain leave to remain. Any deportation mechanism for people finally refused asylum is equally as dilatory as the appeals process. In addition, there were a number of well-intentioned decisions (allowing asylum applicants to work after six months, a well-publicised amnesty for existing illegal immigrants, a well-publicised promise of own-door accommodation rather than direct provision - which has now had to be long-fingered because of pressure on housing) which have become pull factors.

The ministers in charge are a doe-eyed but ideological innocent from the Green Party and a complete incompetent from FG who has been given a pass from the (supportive) media up until now because she is blonde and proves that she is a Girl Boss by spending most of her time on maternity leave. The numbers coming mean that there is no longer any space in the official reception centres so hotels (mostly but not always disused), office blocks, and factories are being called into service and most of these are either in - often quite isolated - rural areas or in working-class inner-city areas or industrial suburbs.

It's essentially a cocktail of the same mistakes that have been made in Canada, Sweden and the UK and it has finally produced the same sort of backlash that has occurred in those countries. Thankfully our would-be far-right are either too weird or too obviously scumbaggish to be an electoral (as opposed to a security) threat but there's no guarantee that that (relatively) happy situation will continue.

FF are in some ways the fall-guys in all of this - they're arguably the least aggravating component of the current coalition in that they haven't been there for thirteen years unlike FG and they're not preachy and incompetent meddlers like the Greens but they're also the least defined component. The rebrand by Martin tried to detoxify FF by making it as different as possible from pre-2008 FF (socially-liberal, economically centre-left, agnostic on UI) but it has also removed the feeling that FF Got Things Done (even if they had to cut ethical corners to do so). Being beige is not a positive, at least not now.

Where are Sinn Fein with regards to immigration? Are they less supportive than the coalition parties

The scenario you're describing sounds like the opportunity is really, really ripe for anti-immigration parties (or at least parties more skeptical of immigration), but to my knowledge SF does not seem to be dramatically different than the others.

[Estrella]

The scenario you're describing sounds like the opportunity is really, really ripe for anti-immigration parties (or at least parties more skeptical of immigration), but to my knowledge SF does not seem to be dramatically different than the others.

A few years ago that would've been true, but today they might as well be taking their lines from Matteo Salvini or (irony of ironies) UK Conservatives.

Mary Lou McDonald: Ukrainian refugees not working in ‘critical’ jobs should not automatically be allowed to stay

Ukrainian refugees who are not working in ‘critical’ jobs should not automatically be allowed to remain in Ireland beyond March 2025, Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald has said. In a hardening of party policy, the Sinn Féin leader said it was a ‘mistake’ to afford special status to Ukrainians. She said that those without key jobs should be made to apply for asylum – and called for deportations to be expedited.

Vast majority of the EU’s Asylum and Migration Pact is not in Ireland’s interests – Pa Daly TD

Sinn Féin are opposed to open borders. We believe that Ireland needs a well-managed migration system – one that is fair, efficient and enforced. [...] We simply do not have enough beds in our IPAS system to continue accommodating people who should be in other EU countries. [...] We oppose opting-into the remainder of the measures. They are better dealt with at a national level. This is an important issue of sovereignty. It must be for an Irish government to decide on key aspects of our immigration system, including rejecting unsuccessful applicants sooner, compiling our list of safe countries so those who are not genuine asylum seekers can be rejected and to decide what countries Ireland should take refugees from. These are not matters for the EU to dictate to us.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

So how much of the sizeable current "Independent" support in polls is actually far/populist right?

A lot of it is proxy for p***ed-off (with things in general) and populist independents of various degrees of rightness are the natural beneficiaries of that given that the various left parties have gone down assorted rabbit-holes rather than dealing with issues that the voters are actually concerned with. I remain hopeful that the actual far right (actual, as opposed to a label that the Trot and Yank-brained left slap on anyone who disagrees with them) are too weird and offputting to gain traction.

So the independent polling is still more parish pumpers like the Healy-Rae's than ideologues?

[ObserverIE]

So how much of the sizeable current "Independent" support in polls is actually far/populist right?

A lot of it is proxy for p***ed-off (with things in general) and populist independents of various degrees of rightness are the natural beneficiaries of that given that the various left parties have gone down assorted rabbit-holes rather than dealing with issues that the voters are actually concerned with. I remain hopeful that the actual far right (actual, as opposed to a label that the Trot and Yank-brained left slap on anyone who disagrees with them) are too weird and offputting to gain traction.

So the independent polling is still more parish pumpers like the Healy-Rae's than ideologues?

That would be my guess, yes; the loudest voices on the immigration issue are still obvious weirdos and low-lifes.

[Zinneke]

The scenario you're describing sounds like the opportunity is really, really ripe for anti-immigration parties (or at least parties more skeptical of immigration), but to my knowledge SF does not seem to be dramatically different than the others.

A few years ago that would've been true, but today they might as well be taking their lines from Matteo Salvini or (irony of ironies) UK Conservatives.

Mary Lou McDonald: Ukrainian refugees not working in ‘critical’ jobs should not automatically be allowed to stay

Ukrainian refugees who are not working in ‘critical’ jobs should not automatically be allowed to remain in Ireland beyond March 2025, Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald has said. In a hardening of party policy, the Sinn Féin leader said it was a ‘mistake’ to afford special status to Ukrainians. She said that those without key jobs should be made to apply for asylum – and called for deportations to be expedited.

Vast majority of the EU’s Asylum and Migration Pact is not in Ireland’s interests – Pa Daly TD

Sinn Féin are opposed to open borders. We believe that Ireland needs a well-managed migration system – one that is fair, efficient and enforced. [...] We simply do not have enough beds in our IPAS system to continue accommodating people who should be in other EU countries. [...] We oppose opting-into the remainder of the measures. They are better dealt with at a national level. This is an important issue of sovereignty. It must be for an Irish government to decide on key aspects of our immigration system, including rejecting unsuccessful applicants sooner, compiling our list of safe countries so those who are not genuine asylum seekers can be rejected and to decide what countries Ireland should take refugees from. These are not matters for the EU to dictate to us.

I don't support SF but I'm glad there's more and more parties that are realising the absurdity of giving any and every Ukrainian refugee, many from regions unaffected, complete free pass and special status. It was a disorganised shambles and loads of working age male deserters (let's call them out for what they are) are now living off dole money (5 times the Ukrainian minimum wage) sitting on their arse here or in Ireland. It's mana from heaven for the Salvinis and Vlaams Belangs of this world.

[CumbrianLefty]

It was inevitable that other European countries let Ukrainians in "no questions asked" originally tbf.

(indeed, not just that but arguably morally right too)

But more than two years on, its quite reasonable for people to want a more controlled approach.

[Zinneke]

It was inevitable that other European countries let Ukrainians in "no questions asked" originally tbf.

(indeed, not just that but arguably morally right too)

But more than two years on, its quite reasonable for people to want a more controlled approach.

No it's not "morally" right to have a complete uninhibited open border policy, to basically allow a single passport to have unfettered access the whole of Europe, to overcrowd public services in some countries but not others, mainly because its not fair on the refugees themselves! It's evidence that the people who design these rules don't listen to people who actually work on the ground processing and dealing with housing, education, etc.

I could give you about 50 anecdotal examples of why letting the Ukrainian passport be a free pass was a terrible idea from my own experience and that of people I know who directly work in the Immigration department of the Interior Ministry of Belgium, who are not your far right bonehead types, but you'll see the next election that the ivory tower liberals will get punished and hopefully it'll make you wake up and smell the coffee.