The other way to look at things, and arguably the best but most difficult way, is with a scorecard. I laid out my views somewhat
in this prior post, as well as the previews, but control or gains in key areas is what matters here. Electorally quiet areas will be skipped for succinctness. How this will be sorted is by Labour then the Lib-Dems, and each will first be matched vs the Tories then other parties when relevant, and at the end of each will be surprise results. So the Conservative side is divided between the two groups.
Labour vs ConservativeAdur outperformed expectations. Complete landslide for first ever majority.
Basildon outperformed expectations. Took every target while also tactical voting gave Labour allies for a administration.
Bolton above expectations. Held ground that was marginally won in 2023.
Cannock Chase matched expectations.
Cherwell matched expectations.
Crawley outperformed expectations. Landslide unexpected given past tight contests.
Dudley matched expectations. Expected close fight, was a close fight.
East Midlands Mayor Matched expectations. Margins close to 2023 council results.
Hartlepool above expectations. 9/12 was the benchmark, but Labour hit >50% in most wins even with Reform.
Harlow Under expectations. Failed to take majority, but only by inches.
Hyndburn outperformed expectations. Not just the Landslide, but a landslide surrounded by councils facing Muslim challengers.
Lincoln above expectations. Swept Tories despite local headwinds.
London Mayor Matched Expectations.
Milton Keynes matched expectations. Years of strong results were repeated, Gains were not by overwhelming margins.
North Hertfordshire above expectations.
Northeast Lincolnshire outperformed expectations. Tossup if Tories would lose control, ended up easily falling.
Nuneaton above expectations. Close result, but still took the majority when starting with near 0.
Peterborough above expectations.
Plymouth outperformed expectations. A second landslide without the local tory issues of 2023.
Redditch outperformed expectations. Landslide result.
Rugby matched expectations. Took expected seats, Came close but failed in the reach targets.
Rushmoor outperformed expectations. Its not the seats won, but Labour winning them mostly >50%.
Southend above expectations. Labour now has the plurality, but could not take a majority.
Stevenage above expectations.
Swindon matched expectations.
Tamworth outperformed expectations. Sweep even after the MPs changed, and with many strong margins.
Tees Valley Mayor below expectations. But perhaps down to Houchen not Labour.
Thurrock outperformed expectations. Gains a control were anticipated but the shock pre-election council tax raise seems to have allowed Labour to push into unfavorable turf.
Welwyn Hatfield above expectations. Made more gains than in 2022 or 2023.
West Midlands Mayor above expectations. The data suggests this would be an easy gain in normal circumstances defying narratives and Labour still gained it with Muslim troubles defying additional and different narratives.
Labour vs Additional GroupsBasingstoke Far below expectations. Other groups took Labours targets from 2023.
Bristol below expectations. There is a silver lining verses the Tories, but the Greens are stronger.
Burnley matched expectations. Made gains but did not land knockout on defectors.
Colcester matched expectations. Failed to take coalition leadership, but did advance.
Cambridge above expectations. Troubles vanished with the congestion charge.
Hastings Matched expectations(?). There was an outside shot at a sweep, but taking Tory and defector wards seems fine even alongside Green gains especially since issues in the 24 hours before the vote here would have pushed things to the Greens.
Norwich Matched expectations.
Oxford below expectations. Local trasport containment policies continue to be net losers.
Portsmouth below expectations. Localists took Labours targets.
Rochdale Above expectations. Measured to Indie results elsewhere, the Gallowayites failed, even though they created greater expectations for themselves.
Sheffield above expectations.
Stroud Above expectations. Even though the greens are now larger, and Labour would have liked control, Labour taking the back defector seats, and more was far from a given.
Worcester matched expectations.
Labour shock resultsBradford Below expectations. Anticipated losses to Muslims Indies, not in the dominant fashion of some wards.
Blackburn with Darwin Below expectations. Losses to Muslim Indies only tempered by gains off Tories.
Havant Above expectations. Somehow Labour were the main beneficiary of Tory collapse and could take control.
Kirklees Below expectations. See Bradford.
North Yorkshire Mayor Outperformed expectations. Not an expected gain, or seen as a target.
Oldham Far below expectations. See Bradford.
Runnymeade Above expectations. See Havant, but more shocking given the geography.
South Tyneside Far below expectations. Though maybe not a surprise given local issues.
Wokingham Above expectations. Surprise gains, in unfriendly turf historically.
Liberal Democrats vs ConservativesBrentwood Below expectations. No majority.
Cheltenham Matched expectations.
Cherwell Above expectations. Pushed into new rural turf.
Dorset Matched expectations. Not a rural landslide like certain other councils last year.
Elmbridge Matched & Below expectations. Tories mostly fell as anticipated, But localists did not so no majority.
Gloucester Above expectations. No majority, but they were the unknown local beneficiary.
Gosport Matched expectations.
Milton Keynes Matched Expectations.
North Hertfordshire Matched expectations.
Pendle - Matched expectations.
Rugby Matched expectations. Also missed their reach seats.
Wokingham Below expectations. Missed majority.
West Oxfordshire Matched expectations.
Welwyn Hatfield Below expectations. Labour took some targets.
Liberal Democrats vs Additional GroupsColchester below expectations. Failed to take Tory wards lost a seat to Labour.
Lincoln below expectations. No Local Labour backlash leaves the Lib-Dems confined to their corner of the city.
Maidstone Below expectations. Greens were the opposition of choice.
Hull matched expectations.
Portsmouth Matched expectations. Continue to see potential opportunities squandered.
Sheffield Below Expectations.
Stockport Below Expectations. Did not take majority.
Lid-Dem Shock resultsNewcastle below expectations. Failed to capitalize on events and lost ground, even to a determined Conservative.
Tandridge below expectations. Let localists capture the narrative, and now there are way too many groupings here.
Tunbridge Wells Outperformed Expectations. Did not expect a play for the majority versus other parties.
So what does the checklist suggest?
Again, the Conservatives matched or even undershot their awful expectations. The only cherries to pick are Harlow, Tees Valley, and shire P&Cs, and those cherries taste foul.
Labour, by contrast, on average were above expectations. And their expectations were very good to start with. They had a very good night by this measure. The only opposition to the narrative were the various shock underperformances, usually to Muslim Indies.
The Lib-Dems did good in the national picture, but here I would say they actually undershot their expectations. In classic Lib-Dem fashion there were a few good results only the party could see coming, but their expected targets did not fall - and some were seemingly very easy. This isn't to say they had a bad result, but rather a result that didn't hit expectations set by 2023.
The Greens going in had 3 big targets, and one was good compared to the possibilities. Sure they would have loved a majority in Bristol, but the end result is above expectations. Instead what didn't go their way is that Labour remain a strong opposition there, taking Tory seats while losing others to the Greens. Stroud and Hastings meanwhile saw good Green results, but again Labour came stomping back in, defying expectations. The expected Green exploitation of a divided Labour vs Defector field did not occur. Instead, most of their overall gains and good results were in lesser targets, as well as the odd ward where local activists concentrated their efforts.