🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[Tender Branson]

Why have the Greens been surging recently?

The voters have been suffering from suffering from fatigue of the "grand" coalition, the very hot and arid summer, plus the dieselgate scandal, where the government rallies behind Volkswagen, which has been pulling the consumers' legs.

+ the Hambach Forest occupation movement, which was also helping their cause.

https://www.dw.com/en/opinion-hambach-forest-a-battlefield-for-the-planets-future/a-45840465

https://www.dw.com/en/germany-thousands-protest-to-save-hambach-forest/a-46060826

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/protesters-in-germany-block-tracks-to-disputed-coal-mine/2018/10/27/213adc1a-d9e9-11e8-8384-bcc5492fef49_story.html

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Why have the Greens been surging recently?

The voters have been suffering from suffering from fatigue of the "grand" coalition, the very hot and arid summer, plus the dieselgate scandal, where the government rallies behind Volkswagen, which has been pulling the consumers' legs.

+ the Hambach Forest occupation movement, which was also helping their cause.

https://www.dw.com/en/opinion-hambach-forest-a-battlefield-for-the-planets-future/a-45840465

https://www.dw.com/en/germany-thousands-protest-to-save-hambach-forest/a-46060826

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/protesters-in-germany-block-tracks-to-disputed-coal-mine/2018/10/27/213adc1a-d9e9-11e8-8384-bcc5492fef49_story.html

Ironically, the clearing of the forest was approved by the last red-green state government. A smart move by the Green party leadership. It's like stealing someone's wallet, giving it back to them and then collection the finder's reward. 🙌🏻👏🏻🤙🏻

[Lord Halifax]

^^awful, frustrating poll, the German establishment need to start to making the positive case for immigration and challenge the narrative being set by the AfD,
The AfD might not be winning the battle but they are winning the war unfortunately :/

Alternatively they could do as the voters want and stop Muslim immigration. Just a thought.

[palandio]

The following points have been made quite often during the last few years and often used at the same time:
- Immigrants are refugees fleeing from war, persecution and terrible circumstances.
- Immigrants can help us cope with demographic change as skilled workers and professionals.
- Immigrants are ready and willing to adapt to our society and accept the rules.

While all of this is true for many immigrants, for some immigrants none of it is true. In my opinion it is exactly the continuous denial of problems by some parts(!) of media and politics that has contributed to poisoning the debate. (The AfD and their friends of course have a major interest in a poisoned debate, but calling them out for it is like calling the kettle black.)

The highest number in the poll is 60% saying that Roma and related groups are prone to crime. It is not enough to say that they're all engineers and doctors. And yes, it is true that the public image of (immigrated) Roma is affected by some of the most visible groups among them who don't represent all of the rest of the Roma.

Maybe it would be good to also speak about some of those 50,000-100,000 Roma who came to Germany in the 70s as guest workers from Yugoslavia, many of whom were very happy to work and integrate themselves into society. Maybe it would be good to shed some more light on the situation in construction, where hundreds of thousands of Eastern Europeans do hard work, a sizeable number of them Roma, the working conditions differing quite a lot from case to case. Maybe it would be good to report about Roma from Romania, Bulgaria or Hungary who come to Germany to work and live just like many of their fellow citizens.

But that doesn't make the problems go away. Thousands of Roma or Turkized Roma are moving from the poorest ghettos of Bulgaria to the de-industrialized central strip of the Ruhr area, in the hope to find work, via other Roma or Turks that are already living there. But there is no work and many of them struggle to adapt to the civilized livestyle that their German, Turkish and Italian neighbors expect. Other Roma are brought to Germany by organized clans as beggars and thiefs. I think that it is possible to solve these problems in a way that is fair to the involved "simple" Roma. But the problems need to be solved and for that need to be acknowledged.

[Omega21]

^^ it's basically unlawful, morally wrong and will never happen,
but let pretend it does happen and Muslim immigration is stopped, it won't change the narrative, in fact I think it will embolden the AfD and other far right parties even more.

You can't win the argument by imitating far right policies, particularly when it comes to immigration and integration,

You need to counterattack, change the narrative and talk about all the teachers, engineers, doctors, nurses, skilled workers and all the benefits migrants add to the society,

Teachers, engineers, doctors and nurses?

Did you fact check any of this? I guess not, since emotions are what counts, yeah?



Look at all those Somalian Eritrean and Afghani doctors, wonderful.
(https://www.iwkoeln.de/fileadmin/user_upload/Studien/Report/PDF/2017/IW-Report_2017_37_Education_Levels_of_Refugees.pdf)

For comparison:  In Germany, 86% of adults aged 25-64 have completed upper secondary education (http://www.oecdbetterlifeindex.org/countries/germany/)

This is without mentioning that some of them will refuse to integrate, shown at least by the rising number of Female Genital Mutilation cases, Polygamy etc. across Europe, especially the UK, since you can't say "There was FGM before immigrants started coming" because there was none. Just an example that you cannot refute, if you use your brain that is.

Yes, there are doctors and engineers and they should be let in, as they are more likely to be secular and not radically religious. Women and children too, but men in their 20's without any skills? No thank you.

I am an immigrant myself, but guess what? I pay for my education, I pay for all my expenses myself, and contribute to the country I now live in.

[Lord Halifax]

^^ it's basically unlawful, morally wrong and will never happen,
but let pretend it does happen and Muslim immigration is stopped, it won't change the narrative, in fact I think it will embolden the AfD and other far right parties even more.

You can't win the argument by imitating far right policies, particularly when it comes to immigration and integration,

You need to counterattack, change the narrative and talk about all the teachers, engineers, doctors, nurses, skilled workers and all the benefits migrants add to the society,

It's not about winning an argument, but doing what the people want, which is after all what politicians are supposed to do in a democracy.

Whether it's unlawful depends on the law, which is made by the politicians, or agreed to if we are talking international obligations, so that is a strange argument. It being morally wrong is a subjective evaluation, no group has an inherent right to immigrate to another country.

[Tender Branson]

New ZDF poll:



"I find it good that ... Merkel steps down as CDU-leader soon (left) & Merkel remains Chancellor until 2021 (right)":



"Who should become the new CDU leader ? (all voters)"



"Who should become the new CDU leader ? (CDU/CSU voters only)"



"Are (...) qualified or unqualified as future Chancellor of Germany ?"

[Tender Branson]

The Green Governor of Baden-Württemberg (11 million people) said the following today:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Link

Amazing.

Exactly my thoughts as well.

[rob in cal]

  It would be interesting to see a split among the Greens between those who more interested in the environmental issues and those more interested in ongoing mass immigration (which by the way has got to have significant long term environmental impacts).  Maybe the Ecological Democrats could join up with the first group.

[Tender Branson]

Notice the difference between Germany and Austria here:

When Austria had a dysfunctional so-called "Grand" Coalition between the conservative ÖVP and Social Democrats, their disaffected voters also went to the Greens and the liberal NEOS - but in a much lower share than the disaffected voters went to the far-right FPÖ.

In Germany it's the other way around now: While the AfD gains only moderately and FDP and Left basically nothing from disaffected former "Grand" Coalition voters, the Greens gain strongly. Basically, the German center is made up of more center-left leaning loan voters, while the Austrian center is made up of more center-right leaning loan voters who back the Grand Coalition parties in good times.

[Tender Branson]

New CDU-leader (Emnid/BamS poll among all voters):

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

It's being reported that Seehofer is about to step down as CSU chairman.

[Famous Mortimer]

^^ it's basically unlawful, morally wrong and will never happen,
but let pretend it does happen and Muslim immigration is stopped, it won't change the narrative, in fact I think it will embolden the AfD and other far right parties even more.

You can't win the argument by imitating far right policies, particularly when it comes to immigration and integration,

You need to counterattack, change the narrative and talk about all the teachers, engineers, doctors, nurses, skilled workers and all the benefits migrants add to the society,

The contributions of the few teachers, engineers, and doctors are cancelled out by the much larger number of people who go on welfare and have 8 kids who also require welfare.

Immigration has been a net loss for Germany.

Lying is not going to convince anyone.

[rob in cal]

  I'd like to see the data on the skilled jobs profile of immigrants in Germany, but my guess is that those bringing a desired skill set are more likely to be coming from other EU countries, while those who came in the 2015 group are much less likely to fit that profile.

[DavidB.]

^^awful, frustrating poll, the German establishment need to start to making the positive case for immigration and challenge the narrative being set by the AfD,

Haha, good luck with that.

[PSOL]

^^ it's basically unlawful, morally wrong and will never happen,
but let pretend it does happen and Muslim immigration is stopped, it won't change the narrative, in fact I think it will embolden the AfD and other far right parties even more.

You can't win the argument by imitating far right policies, particularly when it comes to immigration and integration,

You need to counterattack, change the narrative and talk about all the teachers, engineers, doctors, nurses, skilled workers and all the benefits migrants add to the society,

The contributions of the few teachers, engineers, and doctors are cancelled out by the much larger number of people who go on welfare and have 8 kids who also require welfare.

Immigration has been a net loss for Germany.

Lying is not going to convince anyone.

Can someone fact check Mortimer by posting employment and welfare data for nonwhite immigrants; I highly doubt the fertility rate is 8/woman.

[Omega21]

^^ it's basically unlawful, morally wrong and will never happen,
but let pretend it does happen and Muslim immigration is stopped, it won't change the narrative, in fact I think it will embolden the AfD and other far right parties even more.

You can't win the argument by imitating far right policies, particularly when it comes to immigration and integration,

You need to counterattack, change the narrative and talk about all the teachers, engineers, doctors, nurses, skilled workers and all the benefits migrants add to the society,

The contributions of the few teachers, engineers, and doctors are cancelled out by the much larger number of people who go on welfare and have 8 kids who also require welfare.

Immigration has been a net loss for Germany.

Lying is not going to convince anyone.

Can someone fact check Mortimer by posting employment and welfare data for nonwhite immigrants; I highly doubt the fertility rate is 8/woman.

Happy I can help!



(https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Migrant_integration_statistics_%E2%80%93_labour_market_indicators#Employment_rates)

So, employment for EU born migrants is 86,7% for men and 71,8% for Women. For Germans, as you can see it is even higher.

For non-EU migrants, it is 71,5% for Men and 57% for Women (this includes Eastern European and Balkan migrants, and women from these areas are in my experience more likely to work, so the results are probably worse for non-European migrants).

[palandio]

Rates of employment in jobs with obligatory social insurance by citizenship in August 2018:
Germany 68.6%
not Germany 49.9%
Pakistan 43.6%
Nigeria 39.1%
Eritrea 38.2%
Iran 37.9%
Afghanistan 32.5%
Somalia 28.7%
Iraq 27.7%
Syria 26.0%

Numbers are not comparable with Omega21's EU statistics. It should be noted that the employment rates of citizens from the states mentioned above have risen a lot during the last year.

Source: https://statistik.arbeitsagentur.de/Statischer-Content/Statistische-Analysen/Statistische-Sonderberichte/Generische-Publikationen/Fluchtmigration.pdf

[Omega21]

Rates of employment in jobs with obligatory social insurance by citizenship in August 2018:
Germany 68.6%
not Germany 49.9%
Pakistan 43.6%
Nigeria 39.1%
Eritrea 38.2%
Iran 37.9%
Afghanistan 32.5%
Somalia 28.7%
Iraq 27.7%
Syria 26.0%

Numbers are not comparable with Omega21's EU statistics. It should be noted that the employment rates of citizens from the states mentioned above have risen a lot during the last year.

Source: https://statistik.arbeitsagentur.de/Statischer-Content/Statistische-Analysen/Statistische-Sonderberichte/Generische-Publikationen/Fluchtmigration.pdf

I doubt the employment among Women from a lot of these countries will ever reach German and EU migrant levels.

Example: I watched a few videos of TV crews wanting to Interview women from these types of places in the streets and in one of them her friends said: "Your husband will kill you".

Now imagine a German woman saying "Oh no, my husband will kill me if talk to you". Yeah, not happening.

This was a bit off topic, but it's a very simple comparison to the cultural differences that will most likely make it impossible for Women from these areas to participate in the workforce at the same rate German and EU migrant women do.

[PSOL]

Rates of employment in jobs with obligatory social insurance by citizenship in August 2018:
Germany 68.6%
not Germany 49.9%
Pakistan 43.6%
Nigeria 39.1%
Eritrea 38.2%
Iran 37.9%
Afghanistan 32.5%
Somalia 28.7%
Iraq 27.7%
Syria 26.0%

Numbers are not comparable with Omega21's EU statistics. It should be noted that the employment rates of citizens from the states mentioned above have risen a lot during the last year.

Source: https://statistik.arbeitsagentur.de/Statischer-Content/Statistische-Analysen/Statistische-Sonderberichte/Generische-Publikationen/Fluchtmigration.pdf

I doubt the employment among Women from a lot of these countries will ever reach German and EU migrant levels.

Example: I watched a few videos of TV crews wanting to Interview women from these types of places in the streets and in one of them her friends said: "Your husband will kill you".

Now imagine a German woman saying "Oh no, my husband will kill me if talk to you". Yeah, not happening.

This was a bit off topic, but it's a very simple comparison to the cultural differences that will most likely make it impossible for Women from these areas to participate in the workforce at the same rate German and EU migrant women do.

I would assume the situation in Germany  is similar to here though, with most women working in some shape or form due to low income. Be wary of using the video to paint the whole canvas.

Either way does statistics exist of informal market participation unemployed immigrant are usually engaged in. Over here, a lot of female undocumented folks work as maids or gardeners. Does that similar phenomenon exist in Germany?

[mvd10]

Germany is the Kinder, Küche, Kirche country (KKK, no coincidences here), that's why they love Islamic immigration so much!

[parochial boy]

The girls who sits next to me at work is Somali. Should I tell her she has been a net negative to the country?

[Hnv1]

The girls who sits next to me at work is Somali. Should I tell her she has been a net negative to the country?

No, but you can tell her that as a whole Somalian immigration had a negative net impact.

why does everything in politics for young leftists has to go through emotions and how they feel.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Right wingers: idpol and collectivism is bad

Also right wingers: we should view every single ethnic group as a monolith with a single collective impact on the nation as a whole

[Omega21]

Right wingers: idpol and collectivism is bad

Also right wingers: we should view every single ethnic group as a monolith with a single collective impact on the nation as a whole

First of all, that is not true.

I support accepting highly educated individuals regardless of their ethnic background, as they are more likely to integrate and can use their skill and profession to contribute. Accepting EVERYONE with the motto "Wir schaffen das"  is collectivist, because you are making no distinction based on the economic potential between the individuals coming, regardless if they are completely uneducated and extremely religious or a brain surgeon with secular views. They all get the same treatment, and all get to come.