Looks about right.
Trump is likely not acceptable to the majority of voters, even against a trainwreck like Hillary.
Arizona has gone only once for the Democratic nominee since 1948. Republicans with a 9% lead in Arizona? That fits 2008 and 2012 fairly well.
Arizona was +9 in 2012 (Romney actually got a slightly higher share of the vote in 2012 than John McCain did in 2008) because 416,192 Arizonans are Mormons out of a population of 6,731,484 or 6.18% of the population.
Arizona may very well be a swing state in 2016. I agree it leans Republican but not by 9%