Rasmussen Tracking Poll [Obama vs McCain]

[Sam Spade]

Considering that this is both the labor day sample rolling out and Palin's speech rolling in, I'm actually not too displeased.

As JJ says, we'll know what really happened on Monday

Considering how much Rasmussen weights this poll, I suspect Monday is going to look a lot like pre-DNC with fewer undecideds.  Gallup will probably show more volatility, I would think.

But who knows?  Be patient.

[J. J.]

Considering that this is both the labor day sample rolling out and Palin's speech rolling in, I'm actually not too displeased.

As JJ says, we'll know what really happened on Monday

Sam's right on the volatility.  I would not be too surprised if you'll see a clear lead in Gallup either today or tomorrow.

I really think you're going to have to wait until the middle of next week to have an idea.

[ucscgaldamez]

I think that by looking at the data, yesterday it was McCain +1. McCain 48%, Obama 47%. That's just a guess based on the breakdowns. Democrats are holding a bit better than pre-DNC. Independents are all over the place and the numbers will continue to fluctuate. I have seen McCain with double digits before among this group, to only change within a matter of days. It is interesting to note that in some samples, the bigger the sample of independents, the better Obama does. The smaller the sample, the better McCain does.

[Lief 🗽]

Could be worse. Obama is still ahead, after all.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

2/3 of the sample were interviewed prior to the Palin speech; all were interviewed prior to the McCain speech.  This is going to get uglier for Obama before it gets better.

[Aizen]

Data from Rasmussen Markets currently gives Obama a 55.9 % chance of winning in November.


Remember the good old days when Obama had nearly a 70% of winning in November?

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

2/3 of the sample were interviewed prior to the Palin speech; all were interviewed prior to the McCain speech.  This is going to get uglier for Obama before it gets better.

IIRC, convention bumps are very elastic.  The underlying structure of this race would seem to point to a 5-8 point advantage for Obama.   Why Obama is unable to ride with those undercurrents is a mystery to me.

But, I would say Obama still has about a 75% chance to win.

[opebo]

2/3 of the sample were interviewed prior to the Palin speech; all were interviewed prior to the McCain speech.  This is going to get uglier for Obama before it gets better.

IIRC, convention bumps are very elastic.  The underlying structure of this race would seem to point to a 5-8 point advantage for Obama.   Why Obama is unable to ride with those undercurrents is a mystery to me.

Race.  As you and everyone else well knows.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Hahaha, I'm assuming you are kidding.

[Alcon]

Infomania: the samples for the last few days have been about Obama +2 (last night w/ Palin), Obama +6 (night prior w/ Lieberman) and McCain +2 (beginning of convention).

[J. J.]

Infomania: the samples for the last few days have been about Obama +2 (last night w/ Palin), Obama +6 (night prior w/ Lieberman) and McCain +2 (beginning of convention).

We had the CBS poll at +8 Obama, on 9/1.

[Sam Spade]

I don't think the last two are correct on that, IMHO, and I think last night was slightly more pro-McCain, but who knows.  Are they just guessing?

[J. J.]

I don't think the last two are correct on that, IMHO, and I think last night was slightly more pro-McCain, but who knows.  Are they just guessing?

I will wager a guess that there was an Obama bounce from the DNC and a McCain bounce from the RNC.  I do so love being definitive. 

[Alcon]

I don't think the last two are correct on that, IMHO, and I think last night was slightly more pro-McCain, but who knows.  Are they just guessing?

Mathematical formula.  It's right, save for unpredictability of rounding.

[Sam Spade]

I don't think the last two are correct on that, IMHO, and I think last night was slightly more pro-McCain, but who knows.  Are they just guessing?

Mathematical formula.  It's right, save for rounding.

Ok.  So, considering there probably will be some bounce occurring, the likely answer is slight uptick for Obama tomorrow (unless McCain leads in tomorrow's numbers - which is possible) and then Sunday should bring the strong downtick.

Gallup will probably go closer towards even the next couple of days, depending on the weekend bias.

My gut says right around even in Rasmussen by Monday, and given the slight weekend bias in Gallup, slight Obama lead there (+2 maybe).

If McCain is leading in both polls by Monday/Tuesday, then I think it's fair to reduce the odds down to 55-45 Obama.  If he's tied or slightly behind within MOE, 60-40 Obama.  More than that - I'll stay at least 2-1, maybe worse.

These predictions are, of course, subject to actual polling. 

[Lunar]

538 did a similar algorithm

[ChrisFromNJ]

Samspade, good guess.  538 did an algorithm to figure out the exact (roughly) day-to-day numbers:

Why is Obama still leading in day by day tracking polls during the GOP convention when the inverse wasn't the same for McCain during the DNC convention?

[Alcon]

Suspiciously similar algorithm, in fact.  I forgot to give them a hat-tip

[King]

The Republicans need to hold a 2nd convention on election day.  McCain seems to take the lead on convention opening nights.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Samspade, good guess.  538 did an algorithm to figure out the exact (roughly) day-to-day numbers:

Why is Obama still leading in day by day tracking polls during the GOP convention when the inverse wasn't the same for McCain during the DNC convention?

is this a serious question?  if so...probably because the race was close going into the DNC and Obama grabbed the lead within a day and received a bounce from the week's DNC convention...now McCain and the GOP are receiving their bounce from the RNC, but we won't know the full extent until next week.  If the RNC bounce > DNC bounce, McCain will probably be leading come next week, else, Obama will be leading.

Not sure if Obama has figured out what to do with Palin yet, though I did hear they were sending Hil-Lary down to FL and sending all the Dem female Governors out to run naked through the streets.  Good thing Ann Richards isn't still around.

[Nym90]

Samspade, good guess.  538 did an algorithm to figure out the exact (roughly) day-to-day numbers:

Why is Obama still leading in day by day tracking polls during the GOP convention when the inverse wasn't the same for McCain during the DNC convention?

is this a serious question?  if so...probably because the race was close going into the DNC and Obama grabbed the lead within a day and received a bounce from the week's DNC convention...now McCain and the GOP are receiving their bounce from the RNC, but we won't know the full extent until next week.  If the RNC bounce > DNC bounce, McCain will probably be leading come next week, else, Obama will be leading.

Not sure if Obama has figured out what to do with Palin yet, though I did hear they were sending Hil-Lary down to FL and sending all the Dem female Governors out to run naked through the streets.  Good thing Ann Richards isn't still around.

Jennifer Granholm is pretty hot. Ruth Ann Minner, not so much.

In all seriousness though, I'm not sure why he'd have to "do" anything with the other party's VP nominees, given how little of an impact VP nominees have on the outcome of an election anyway.

[Sam Spade]

Saturday - September 6, 2008:

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 46% / 49%, including leaners (nc, +1)
McCain: 45% / 46%, including leaners (nc, nc)

Favorability

Obama: 56% favorable, 43% unfavorable (-1, +1)
McCain: 58% favorable, 41% unfavorable (+1, -1)
Considering that, according to the chart above, a McCain +2 sample fell off, it's likely that today's sample was (roughly) Obama +1.  Also, depending on how big the difference between leaners and non-leaners was in the Wednesday sample, you could potentially see a weird result tomorrow (depending of course on the results) where McCain leads without leaners and Obama leads with them when the Obama +6 sample drops.

[Nym90]

Saturday - September 6, 2008:

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 46% / 49%, including leaners (nc, +1)
McCain: 45% / 46%, including leaners (nc, nc)

Favorability

Obama: 56% favorable, 43% unfavorable (-1, +1)
McCain: 58% favorable, 41% unfavorable (+1, -1)
Considering that, according to the chart above, a McCain +2 sample fell off, it's likely that today's sample was (roughly) Obama +1.  Also, depending on how big the difference between leaners and non-leaners was in the Wednesday sample, you could potentially see a weird result tomorrow (depending of course on the results) where McCain leads without leaners and Obama leads with them when the Obama +6 sample drops.

Obama +1 on the day after McCain's acceptance speech looks pretty good to me.

But let me guess Sam, be patient, right?

[Sam Spade]

Saturday - September 6, 2008:

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 46% / 49%, including leaners (nc, +1)
McCain: 45% / 46%, including leaners (nc, nc)

Favorability

Obama: 56% favorable, 43% unfavorable (-1, +1)
McCain: 58% favorable, 41% unfavorable (+1, -1)
Considering that, according to the chart above, a McCain +2 sample fell off, it's likely that today's sample was (roughly) Obama +1.  Also, depending on how big the difference between leaners and non-leaners was in the Wednesday sample, you could potentially see a weird result tomorrow (depending of course on the results) where McCain leads without leaners and Obama leads with them when the Obama +6 sample drops.

Obama +1 on the day after McCain's acceptance speech looks pretty good to me.

But let me guess Sam, be patient, right?

Of course.    It's been my comment about the whole campaign, I think.

[Verily]

Well, it's heartening that the one-day samples continue to show Obama ahead, even after the RNC. Tomorrow and the next few days are important to watch, of course, but it's good news so far.

[Ronnie]

"Tracking Poll results are based upon nightly telephone interviews and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. As a result, roughly two-thirds of the interviews were completed before McCain’s speech on Wednesday night. One third were completed before Alaska Governor Sarah Palin’s speech on Wednesday. Tomorrow (Sunday) will be the first update based entirely upon interviews conducted after Palin’s speech and Monday will be the first based entirely upon interviews conducted after McCain’s speech. By Tuesday or Wednesday, the overall impact of both political conventions should be fairly clear."

Okay, that makes sense.