State Legislature Special Election Mega Thread
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Author Topic: State Legislature Special Election Mega Thread  (Read 177673 times)
Holy Unifying Centrist
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« Reply #1775 on: February 20, 2018, 08:56:40 PM »
Quote from: King Lear on February 20, 2018, 08:49:00 PM
I don’t understand why people are acting like a Low-turnout state legislative special election in a traditionally Democratic part of Kentucky will have anything to do with the outcome of the 2018 Midterm.

- 2018 dems win "Trump will still win in 2020"
- 2020 sherrod brown destroys Trump "the gop will win in 2022"
- 2022 dems gain 2 senate seats "the gop will still win in 2024 and take back 10 senate seats"
- 2024 sherrod brown destroys random republican "6 year itch is coming"
- 2026 dems only lose 3 senate seats "dems will not win 3 presidentials in a row"
- 2028 dems win third term "sherrod brown can't POSSIBLY have sex with my wife"

- the next day sherrod brown has hot, steaming sex with king lear's wife


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libertpaulian
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« Reply #1776 on: February 20, 2018, 08:57:47 PM »
Quote from: King Lear on February 20, 2018, 08:49:00 PM
I don’t understand why people are acting like a Low-turnout state legislative special election in a traditionally Democratic part of Kentucky will have anything to do with the outcome of the 2018 Midterm.
...and here he comes, right on time...
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #1777 on: February 20, 2018, 09:02:10 PM »
Found Channel 3000 covering the Wisconsin Supreme Court primary.

https://www.channel3000.com/news/politics/elections/election-results

Anyone find a place that's covering it with map results?
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #1778 on: February 20, 2018, 09:04:12 PM »
Quote from: Arch on February 20, 2018, 09:02:10 PM
Found Channel 3000 covering the Wisconsin Supreme Court primary.

https://www.channel3000.com/news/politics/elections/election-results

Anyone find a place that's covering it with map results?

I think the best we can do is county by county clerks of elections. What are notable bellwether counties in Wisconsin?
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GlobeSoc
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« Reply #1779 on: February 20, 2018, 09:05:42 PM »
How quickly does WI count?
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Babeuf
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« Reply #1780 on: February 20, 2018, 09:05:59 PM »
« Edited: February 20, 2018, 09:08:04 PM by Babeuf »
Quote from: Arch on February 20, 2018, 09:02:10 PM
Found Channel 3000 covering the Wisconsin Supreme Court primary.

https://www.channel3000.com/news/politics/elections/election-results

Anyone find a place that's covering it with map results?
Found a place with maps: https://projects.jsonline.com/news/2018/2/20/february-2018-milwaukee-area-primary-election-results.html
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #1781 on: February 20, 2018, 09:07:13 PM »
Quote from: LimoLiberal on February 20, 2018, 09:04:12 PM
Quote from: Arch on February 20, 2018, 09:02:10 PM
Found Channel 3000 covering the Wisconsin Supreme Court primary.

https://www.channel3000.com/news/politics/elections/election-results

Anyone find a place that's covering it with map results?

I think the best we can do is county by county clerks of elections. What are notable bellwether counties in Wisconsin?

For this kind of election? Good question. Door County is always a good one to look at, as well as the cluster of southwestern counties. Look towards the WOW counties to see if the conservative judge doesn't perform well. If he fails there, then we're looking at him landing third place and Republicans being shut out of the race entirely.
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #1782 on: February 20, 2018, 09:08:03 PM »

Thanks!
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Sestak
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« Reply #1783 on: February 20, 2018, 09:08:03 PM »
RESULTS THUS FAR

Tim Burns   68   17%   
Rebecca Dallet   208   52%   
Michael Screnock   122   31%   
0% reporting (4 of 3480 precincts)
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #1784 on: February 20, 2018, 09:09:10 PM »

Thank you, it looks great!
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #1785 on: February 20, 2018, 09:09:15 PM »

WI is fairly fast once it gets going. Usually it takes about 30 minutes for anything meaningful to start coming in.
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GlobeSoc
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« Reply #1786 on: February 20, 2018, 09:09:19 PM »
Quote from: Sestak on February 20, 2018, 09:08:03 PM
RESULTS THUS FAR

Tim Burns   68   17%   
Rebecca Dallet   208   52%   
Michael Screnock   122   31%   
0% reporting (4 of 3480 precincts)

literally where are those 4 precincts?

edit: in Milwaukee county lol
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #1787 on: February 20, 2018, 09:10:36 PM »
Quote from: Sestak on February 20, 2018, 09:08:03 PM
RESULTS THUS FAR

Tim Burns   68   17%   
Rebecca Dallet   208   52%   
Michael Screnock   122   31%   
0% reporting (4 of 3480 precincts)

Those are Milwaukee precincts, and Rebecca is running away with it, as I expected. Tim Burns should perform well in the rest of the state.

Eyes on Screnock in WOW.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #1788 on: February 20, 2018, 09:12:06 PM »
Quote from: Arch on February 20, 2018, 09:10:36 PM
Quote from: Sestak on February 20, 2018, 09:08:03 PM
RESULTS THUS FAR

Tim Burns   68   17%   
Rebecca Dallet   208   52%   
Michael Screnock   122   31%   
0% reporting (4 of 3480 precincts)

Those are Milwaukee precincts, and Rebecca is running away with it, as I expected. Tim Burns should perform well in the rest of the state.

Eyes on Screnock in WOW.

Screnock getting 69% in Waukesha county: http://electionresults.waukeshacounty.gov/contests.aspx?contest=-1
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Holy Unifying Centrist
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« Reply #1789 on: February 20, 2018, 09:12:29 PM »
idk how to even interpret these results. how partisan / polarized is this election going to be?
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #1790 on: February 20, 2018, 09:13:20 PM »
Quote from: LimoLiberal on February 20, 2018, 09:12:06 PM
Quote from: Arch on February 20, 2018, 09:10:36 PM
Quote from: Sestak on February 20, 2018, 09:08:03 PM
RESULTS THUS FAR

Tim Burns   68   17%   
Rebecca Dallet   208   52%   
Michael Screnock   122   31%   
0% reporting (4 of 3480 precincts)

Those are Milwaukee precincts, and Rebecca is running away with it, as I expected. Tim Burns should perform well in the rest of the state.

Eyes on Screnock in WOW.

Screnock getting 69% in Waukesha county: http://electionresults.waukeshacounty.gov/contests.aspx?contest=-1

Blergh, well, let's see what happens in the rest of the state and in WOW as more results come in.
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Jeppe
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« Reply #1791 on: February 20, 2018, 09:14:11 PM »
Kenosha County

Justice of the Supreme Court
(65 polls reporting out of 121)

Michael Screnock   
2763(50%)

 Rebecca Dallet   
1951(35%)

 Tim Burns   
774(14%)

 Write-In   10
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #1792 on: February 20, 2018, 09:15:03 PM »
With half the vote in, Screnock getting 70% in Waukesha county:http://electionresults.waukeshacounty.gov/contests.aspx?contest=-1

Trump got 60%. Won't be a D v. D runoff, it seems.
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Sestak
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« Reply #1793 on: February 20, 2018, 09:15:37 PM »
RESULTS THUS FAR

   Tim Burns   147   23%   
Rebecca Dallet   275   44%   
Michael Screnock   208   33%   
0% reporting (7 of 3480 precincts)
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Jeppe
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« Reply #1794 on: February 20, 2018, 09:15:59 PM »
Fon Du-Lac County

1,101 - Schrenock

427 - Dallet

209 - Burns

http://www.fdlco.wi.gov/home/showdocument?id=15422
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #1795 on: February 20, 2018, 09:17:11 PM »
ruh roh.
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Jeppe
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« Reply #1796 on: February 20, 2018, 09:20:25 PM »
Schrenock and Dallet are leading in Rock County with around 40% and 37% respectively, with Burns behind at 24%. This seems like an area where Burns should be ahead of Dallet. Unless Burns does really, really well in Dane, I don't see how he ends up in the GE with Schrenock.
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #1797 on: February 20, 2018, 09:20:55 PM »
Quote from: Gauche on February 20, 2018, 09:20:25 PM
Schrenock and Dallet are leading in Rock County with around 40% and 37% respectively, with Burns behind at 24%. This seems like an area where Burns should be ahead of Dallet. Unless Burns does really, really well in Dane, I don't see how he ends up in the GE with Schrenock.

Yeah, doesn't look like it.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #1798 on: February 20, 2018, 09:21:57 PM »
Screnock is holding up pretty good in Milwaukee and Kenosha and is going to crush in WOW. He has a fighting chance at more than 50%.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #1799 on: February 20, 2018, 09:22:54 PM »
Dare I say that Screnock could hit 50%?
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