Who is more likely to win re-election?

[IceSpear]

I thought this would be an interesting question. Judging from the trends in these districts, I'm going with Axne despite the fact that she won by a smaller margin.

[lfromnj]

Axne especially if she can pressure redistricting to get a des moine heavy district which basically makes King's district +40R Trump. It would make geographical sense although it would be a blatant democratic gerrymander.

[PAK Man]

Axne especially if she can pressure redistricting to get a des moine heavy district which basically makes King's district +40R Trump. It would make geographical sense although it would be a blatant democratic gerrymander.

Iowa has an independent redistricting committee to prevent Gerrymandering. Plus, it's kind of difficult to Gerrymander the state.

As for the question at hand, Finkenauer. The district is more Democratic, plus I think she's a perfect fit for it.

[lfromnj]

Axne especially if she can pressure redistricting to get a des moine heavy district which basically makes King's district +40R Trump. It would make geographical sense although it would be a blatant democratic gerrymander.

Iowa has an independent redistricting committee to prevent Gerrymandering. Plus, it's kind of difficult to Gerrymander the state.

As for the question at hand, Finkenauer. The district is more Democratic, plus I think she's a perfect fit for it.

ik it has independent redistricting but she could voice an opinion for a smaller des moines based district for the sake of "community interest"

[beesley]

Cindy Axne. Not by much, but I feel she will not only benefit from the district trends but is generally more likely to win anyway.

[MT Treasurer]

Cindy Axne, but both will need a good year for Democrats to survive. I think Finkenauer is extremely overrated in general, and on Atlas in particular.

[😥]

Cindy Axne, but both will need a good year for Democrats to survive. I think Finkenauer is extremely overrated in general, and on Atlas in particular.

[Politician]

Definitely Finkenauer. The seat is trending Republican, sure, but it's still a D+1 seat, and she is a stronger incumbent. Regardless, these are both seats the Democrats need to prioritize defending in 2020.

[Mr.Phips]

Cindy Axne, but both will need a good year for Democrats to survive. I think Finkenauer is extremely overrated in general, and on Atlas in particular.

If neither of them can survive in a Presidential year then Iowa is truly gone for Democrats and 2016 is the new normal for Presidential elections.

[MT Treasurer]

Cindy Axne, but both will need a good year for Democrats to survive. I think Finkenauer is extremely overrated in general, and on Atlas in particular.

Yeah, Finkenauer's margin was pretty embarrassing considering the hype and that Blum was "triaged"

Yeah, remember when Blum was going to get Blanched and lose by more than Comstock? lol

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

They'll both win reelection in 2020. Finkenauer as the answer to the question.

[Xing]

I think it's a little early to predict this with any degree of confidence, but I'd give Finkenauer slightly better chances overall. Both will be competitive, though.