Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Aurora.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Quite pixellated.

I had to use the town map from the site, which looks like that zoomed in as much as it is.

Even though it wasn't an actual gerrymander despite looking like one, that map makes you realize how beneficial to the DFL 26B is. It consists of all of the Rice county portion (everything north of the border between the second and third rows, and then runs along the far western column to the bottom, then wraps around picking up the bottom row. Obama won it by the narrowest of margins, and there's really no other way to draw an Obama House district from the seat. Quite amazing.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

That's some crazy geographic polarization, Republican wins one county with over 83% and almost 90% in another, but the Democrat wins due to getting over 88% in the largest county! Wow!

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

If a Negro can get 47% in Marion county, any local white Democrat should have a cakewalk.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The old incumbent was a Republican remember.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

All four look like holds.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

That Alabama seat looks like a GOP pickup, Mississippi one is probably a hold (wow, there is seriously a majority black county in Mississippi called Jefferson Davis County?), and the NH one could go either way, maybe GOP leaning (appears to have voted for Obama but he did arguably overrun in NH, was basically a dead heat in 2004.)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I was wrong about the composition of that NH seat, I couldn't find a map but the legislative page made it appear to be completely within Manchester. It's actually a lot more Republican than it appeared.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Just wonderful.  This is what Obama's Presidency is doing to the Democratic party.  This makes a net loss of eleven state legislative seats since Obama's election.  Democrats should take this guy, put steel boots on him and drown him for what he is done to the party.  This is a huge price for Democrats to be paying just to have a symbol sitting in the White House. 

Obviously, a Republican hold in a state legislative seat is far more important than control of the White House.

Obviously it's also Obama's fault that when some Dixiecrat dinosaur in a >65% for McCain district dies the Democrats can't hold it.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So the Republican has 6%? LOL.

Who the hell are these 34% of idiots though?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Wow I just found out Monseratte used to be a cop. That's quite scary. And you wonder why many people hate cops.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Christie is a horrible fascist.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Tomorrow is the special election for Scott Brown's state senate seat.

Also, there are three specials in Georgia tomorrow, but none look to be particularly interesting.

Are they all safe Dem or safe GOP seats?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

What is expected in Scott Brown's state Senate seat?

It's a pretty Republican district (by Massachusetts standards.) Obama won it by about 2 points I think which in MA is quite weak.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Kind of odd, I don't have an exact map of the old Brown seat, but the general area doesn't look too Republican even by Massachusetts standards. I do know it is considered one of the safest GOP seats in Massachusetts though so I'm interested in a map.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

That seat looks rather gerrymandered.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Great news, Alvin Greene is back:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20101227/ap_on_re_us/us_sc_house_greene

He's running for a South Carolina House seat that opened up because the incumbent died.

Is it a Dem one? If so, HELL YES!

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Special election in Minnesota House, 5B. Mark Dayton has appointed incumbent Tony Sertich, former Majority Leader and who was in line to become Speaker to chair the Iron Range Resources and Rehabilitation Board (Yes the acronym for that is IRRRB, awesome.) Sertich was mentioned as a possible challenger to Cravaack so this probably takes him out of the running. Primary is Feb 1st, general is Feb 15th.

Dayton won the seat 63-29, so obviously this one probably isn't going to be competitive, but the DFL primary should be interesting. Filing deadline has just passed, there are four Democrats running, one IP and one Republican (the same guy who lost to Sertich in November and got 33%.)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

We nominated the liberal, who is also kind of cute over the pro-life Moderate Hero in 5B. Good.

She's also only 25. The vacating incumbent held the seat for a decade and yet he's only 35 now. Weird district to be electing youngs. It's not a youthful place at all.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The turnout will be pathetic, but its an interesting experience looking at a ballot with just one race on it, similar to a parliamentary style election.

I had that one time. For a special mayoral election. It was non-partisan though.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

If that part of Minnesota can elect youngs I don't know why we don't. I suppose Margaret Anderson-Kelliher was only 29 when she was first elected to her district and her successor isn't that old either.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Cameron Parish, LA 2008:

President:
McCain 81.44%
Obama 16.16%

Senate:
Landrieu 50.30%
Kennedy 46.92%

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I kind of figured out the big problem the GOP has in Massachusetts awhile back, the state is geographically built so that no areas prone to strong Republicanism can develop. It's not really that the state is so Dem as you'd expect at least one seat out of ten to go Republican in a 60% Democratic state, Republicans do win parts of Wayne County after all and would have at least one safe seat if split into 10 districts. We're comparably to Massachusetts at the Hennepin County level but if we had partisan elections for county commisioner 2/7 of our seats would be safe GOP, another one would be a pure swing seat. But all around Boston you have some urban and often heavily minority areas scattered instead of exurbs. Got to the northeast and you enter Lynn and then Salem, there are some GOP pockets north of there but because of those cities will always be outvoted. Straight north takes you to Lawrence, and you have to go to New Hampshire to find the real exurbs. There are no exurbs to the west because of Framingham, and no exurbs to the west of there because then you're in the Worcester area. And if you head south you'll soon leave the Boston suburbs and instead end up in the area of New Bedford, Fall River and Providence, RI. To the southeast though with no real urban area you have one of the few reliably GOP areas in the state. But there simply is no place in the state where you can get lots of heavily Republican exurban type areas that aren't outvoted by somewhere else. And since the western rural part of the state and now the Cape are heavily Dem, there's just not much of an opportunity anywhere.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Good points BRTD, but in what other states other than perhaps uber Green Vermont do the Dems carry the upper middle class WASP vote; not that that particular cohort matters that much in Mass, but it kind of gives you the idea that it is a bit more than just where different kinds of folks are parked across the state, doesn't it?

Uh, New York? Look at Westchester County. Also true in suburban Philly, some places in Maryland and lots of places in Connecticut. I've never really managed to pin down the difference between the still Republican very affluent parts of Connecticut and latte liberal Dem areas though.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Good points BRTD, but in what other states other than perhaps uber Green Vermont do the Dems carry the upper middle class WASP vote; not that that particular cohort matters that much in Mass, but it kind of gives you the idea that it is a bit more than just where different kinds of folks are parked across the state, doesn't it?

Uh, New York? Look at Westchester County. Also true in suburban Philly, some places in Maryland and lots of places in Connecticut. I've never really managed to pin down the difference between the still Republican very affluent parts of Connecticut and latte liberal Dem areas though.

Maybe in Maryland in Montgomery County (Potomac?), but otherwise no. Those precincts that you think are upper middle class WASP have a heavy Jewish plurality. So you need to cull those folks out. Interestingly, my vague impression is that both the upper middle class to rich WASP and Jews tend to avoid the upper middle class to rich heavily Catholic areas of Westchester, to wit Eastchester.

Uh, Connecticut? Look at the exit poll and how Obama overwhelmingly won Protestants there. Hey maybe that's it, the Protestant and Jewish upper class areas vote Democratic and the Catholic ones still have a socially conservative tinge and are more open to Republicans. Maybe Connecticut is my perfect state.

And Montco in Maryland does have a large Jewish population, but I'd be shocked if it was a plurality. You also missed Howard County. And there's no way there's a Jewish plurality in suburban Philly. For that matter there's also NOVA.